Florida State Seminoles vs. Clemson Tigers Betting Odds, College Football Pick

The home team is 8-1 straight up over the last nine Clemson-Florida State battles but only 4-5 against the spread, as the teams have played some close games over recent seasons. In a contest that could decide an ACC division championship, the Tigers host the Seminoles Saturday afternoon at Death Valley.

Point spread: This game was off the board early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 37.6-29.2 Tigers

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

Playing without quarterback Everett Golson (concussion) and running back Dalvin Cook (ankle), FSU nonetheless bounced back from a loss at Georgia Tech two weeks ago to beat Syracuse last week 45-21, covering as a 16-point favorite. The Seminoles spotted the Orange the first touchdown of the game, then scored 45 of the next 52 points to take control.

Junior quarterback Sean Maguire, in his second career start, hit on 23 of 35 throws for 348 yards and three touchdowns—all to Travis Rudolph—without a pick, while freshman Jacques Patrick, subbing for Cook, ran for 162 yards and three more scores.

On the day, Florida State outgained Syracuse 575-303. It was the fifth time this season the 'Noles outgained their opponents by at least 100 yards. In Maguire's only previous career start, he beat Clemson last season 23-17 in overtime, throwing for 304 yards and the game-tying score with six minutes to go.

Why the Clemson Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers are 8-0 and still part of the College Football Playoff conversation after outlasting North Carolina State last week 56-41 in Raleigh. Clemson trailed a fired-up Wolfpack team 20-19 just before halftime but took the lead for good on a DeShaun Watson touchdown pass—one of his five on the day—then scored the first touchdown of the second half and pulled away from there, eventually covering as a 13-point road favorite.

The Tigers outrushed NC State 240-135, outgained the Pack 623-389 and won time of possession by a 34-26 margin. Clemson has now outrushed six of eight opponents this season and outgained seven of eight.

At 5-0 in ACC play, a half-game up on FSU, the Tigers could basically clinch the Atlantic Division title with a victory Saturday, considering their last two conference games are against Syracuse and Wake Forest.

Smart pick

This is a big one for Clemson; if they can win Saturday, and take the four winnable games that would follow, the Tigers will make the College Football Playoff. On the other side of this bout, Florida State is a little banged-up at some key spots. Also, Clemson outplayed the 'Noles last year and probably should have won that game. Take the Tigers, minus the points.

Betting trends

Florida State is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games on the road against Clemson.

The total has gone under in eight of Clemson's last 10 games at home in November.

Florida State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after a win.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.