Mets vs. Cubs: Keys for Each Team to Win NLCS Game 3

Luke StricklandOct 20, 2015

After two games in Queens, the National League Championship Series moves to the Windy City with the New York Mets leading the Chicago Cubs 2-0.

Game 3 will take place Tuesday night at 8:07 p.m. EDT, with Kyle Hendricks and Jacob deGrom starting for their respective teams. Before first pitch, let's take a look at some keys that could decide the pivotal game.

Can Hendricks Keep the Ball on the Ground?

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If the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field, keeping the ball on the ground must be a priority for both starting pitchers.

Hendricks didn't have a problem doing that during the regular season. The right-hander ranked in the top 20 in ground-ball rate this season with a 51.3 percent mark. Hendricks was even better at inducing ground-ball contact at home than on the road:

Home: 54.2 percent ground-ball rate, 3.38 ERA
Road: 48.9 percent ground-ball rate, 4.47 ERA

Oct 19, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks speaks at a press conference during practice the day before game three of the 2015 NLCS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

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It's clear that the way Hendricks pitches plays well in the blustery conditions at Wrigley. However, he'll be facing a Mets team that hits the ball in the air more than most MLB teams.

The Mets ranked 28th in ground-ball rate and fifth in fly-ball rate this season. Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, Travis d'Arnaud, David Wright and Michael Conforto each hit the ball in the air more than on the ground this season.

The baseball flew out of Wrigley in the National League Division Series and figures to do so again if the wind is up to its usual tricks. Game 3 may come down to whether Hendricks or the Mets lineup cracks first.

Will the Mets Continue to Run?

Much was made about the Mets' lack of stolen bases before a Game 1 battle with Jon Lester. New York swiped two bases and added two more steals in Game 2 against Jake Arrieta.

Oct 18, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets right fielder Curtis Granderson (3) steals second base ahead of the throw to Chicago Cubs infielder Starlin Castro (13) in the third inning in game two of the NLCS at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthon

Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

While Lester and Arrieta were notorious for allowing base stealers, Hendricks wasn't much better at stopping opposing running games this season. The right-hander allowed 13 stolen bases in 18 attempts. Out of the bullpen, Justin Grimm (7-of-7), Hector Rondon (8-of-9), Pedro Strop (3-of-4) and Trevor Cahill (5-of-7) can also be run on.

The Mets may not like to run, but catching potential base stealers is a fatal flaw for an otherwise impressive Cubs staff. If the situation presents itself, manager Terry Collins can't be afraid to be aggressive on the bases in Game 3.

Does Chicago's Regular-Season Success Against deGrom Matter?

Jacob deGrom was one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2015, posting a 2.54 ERA in 30 starts this season.

But one team seemed to have deGrom's number this year: the Chicago Cubs. Back in May, the Cubs got to deGrom for four earned runs in five innings of work. Later in July, deGrom allowed four more runs in 5.1 innings.

For context, deGrom allowed four or more runs in just six of his 30 starts, two of which were to the Cubs.

It's hard to take much from such a small sample size, but deGrom hasn't been himself against Chicago this season. Against a pitcher with such dominant stuff, the Cubs will likely latch onto any silver lining they can.

Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Oct. 20.