Predicting All 30 MLB Teams' Top-Priority Targets This Offseason
The postseason is still in full swing, but it's never too early to turn our attention to the offseason ahead.
This year's free-agent class is headlined by a foursome of starting pitchers, David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto, and there is plenty of starting pitching depth behind them.
On the offensive side of things, outfielders Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Alex Gordon headline a position player class that also includes Chris Davis, Ian Desmond, Ben Zobrist, Dexter Fowler and Daniel Murphy.
With some teams looking to spend big and others simply looking to retool, all 30 teams have a different plan heading into the offseason.
What follows is a look at the one player who could be each team's top priority target this coming offseason, whether it is a player being re-signed, a free agent being brought in or a trade target being acquired.
Baltimore Orioles: 1B Chris Davis
1 of 30
The Baltimore Orioles are faced with a number of key players reaching free agency this offseason, as Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Wei-Yin Chen, Darren O'Day and Steve Pearce will all reach the open market.
A case can be made that the team's biggest need is to address a starting rotation that was 25th in the league with a 4.53 ERA, but bringing back Davis to anchor the middle of the lineup gets the nod here as the top priority.
Despite the emergence of Manny Machado as a legitimate run producer, losing David would be a huge blow for an offense that already lost Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis last offseason.
The question is: Does the team have enough money to bring back Davis and still address other needs?
At this point, even executive vice president Dan Duquette is not sure of the answer.
"I don’t know what the final market’s gonna be for Chris Davis, but having looked at some of the other contracts, it’s gonna be a lot of money," Duquette told Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.
"And we’re gonna have to weigh the competitiveness of the team and the need of the team to staff a strong pitching staff. I don’t know where the money’s going to end up, but we have enough resources in this market to field a competitive team, and our aim is to do that again in ’16."
The last significant investment the Orioles made in a starting pitcher was Ubaldo Jimenez, and that has not worked out, so they may be more inclined to invest big money in someone like Davis and then play the secondary pitching market.
Boston Red Sox: SP Jordan Zimmermann
2 of 30
The Boston Red Sox figure to have a busy offseason ahead with Dave Dombrowski now running the show in the front office, and the top priority will no doubt be sorting out the pitching staff.
They will need to add at least a few bullpen arms around Junichi Tazawa and an aging Koji Uehara, but shoring up the rotation remains the No. 1 priority.
Rookies Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens both pitched well enough in the second half to get another crack at starting spots, while veterans Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Joe Kelly and Clay Buchholz (assuming his $13 million option is exercised) will also all be back.
However, the team is still lacking a legitimate ace in that group, and while Rodriguez flashed the potential to be that guy, don't expect the team to count on him to fill that role in 2016.
Instead, making a run at one of the "Big Four" starting pitchers on the market (David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto) looks like a must.
The 29-year-old figures to come slightly cheaper than Price and Greinke, and after watching Cueto struggle making the move to the American League with the Kansas City Royals down the stretch, Zimmermann could quickly emerge as their top target once the offseason begins.
He dealt with some arm issues early in his career, but over the past five seasons he's gone 66-43 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.135 WHIP while averaging 31 starts, 194 innings and 157 strikeouts per year.
Zimmermann is a Midwest native, growing up and going to school in Wisconsin, but the Red Sox could make a strong enough offer to convince him to stay on the East Coast.
New York Yankees: 2B/OF Ben Zobrist
3 of 30
Do the New York Yankees need starting pitching help?
Absolutely, but the days of this franchise simply throwing money at the top players on the market are over, and chances are they're not going to invest the money necessary to land one of the top free-agent arms.
Expect them to go after one or two second-tier guys and another right-handed reliever to help take some pressure off the oft-used Dellin Betances, but don't expect a David Price or Zack Greinke to be donning Yankee pinstripes next year.
Instead, their top offseason priority will likely be finding some quality offensive depth and perhaps an upgrade at second base, where Stephen Drew is set to depart and Rob Refsnyder is still an unproven commodity.
Outside of a late-season injury to Mark Teixeira, the lineup managed to stay relatively healthy in 2015, and given their average age, that was nothing short of a miracle.
Adding someone like Ben Zobrist would give them tremendous peace of mind, as he could begin the season as the team's starting second baseman, but then move around as necessary based on who inevitably goes down with an injury.
Zobrist started the 2015 season off slowly and then underwent knee surgery on a torn meniscus, but he still managed to finish the year with a .276/.359/.450 line that included 36 doubles, 13 home runs and 56 RBI.
At 34 years old it might not take more than a three-year deal to land him; that's the kind of financial commitments the team is more open to making these days.
.png?w=256)
Tampa Bay Rays: C Chris Iannetta
4 of 30
It's no secret the catcher position has been a black hole for the Tampa Bay Rays for years now, from an offensive production standpoint.
Just how bad has it been? Let's take a look:
- 2009: .233/.276/.349, 13 HR, 55 RBI
- 2010: .218/.319/.324, 10 HR, 54 RBI
- 2011: .194/.274/.333, 17 HR, 53 RBI
- 2012: .227/.300/.337, 11 HR, 59 RBI
- 2013: .245/.310/.355, 9 HR, 49 RBI
- 2014: .194/.274/.250, 5 HR, 48 RBI
- 2015: .201/.239/.362, 20 HR, 62 RBI
Curt Casali (101 AB, 10 HR) and J.P. Arencibia (71 AB, 6 HR) provided some unexpected pop with a pair of hot streaks, but offseason acquisition Rene Rivera was a huge flop, and the team will enter the offseason once again looking for a starting backstop.
Matt Wieters will no doubt be out of their price range, and Alex Avila comes as a significant injury risk after battling concussions, which leaves them bargain-hunting for someone like Chris Iannetta, A.J. Pierzynski or Dioner Navarro if they opt to go the free-agent route.
Of that group, Iannetta may be the most intriguing, as he ranks as one of the better buy-low candidates at any position in this year's free-agent class.
His 2015 season was not a pretty one, as he hit .188/.293/.335 and eventually lost his job to Carlos Perez.
However, he's just a year removed from hitting .252/.373/.392 and posting a 2.1 WAR, and there's some reason to believe he could bounce back.
A .225 BABIP certainly contributed to his drop in batting average, and he maintained a solid 12.9 percent walk rate, according to FanGraphs.
On a one-year deal, he's worth taking a chance on for a franchise that continues to search for an answer behind the plate.
Toronto Blue Jays: SP David Price
5 of 30
His postseason struggles have continued here in 2015, but David Price completely changed the outlook of the Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff when he was acquired at the trade deadline, and the team will make every effort to bring him back this offseason.
Price was 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA in 11 starts after the trade, capping off a season in which he went 18-5 with an AL-best 2.45 ERA to put himself alongside Houston Astros ace Dallas Keuchel as the AL Cy Young front-runners.
The seven-year, $210 million deal signed by Max Scherzer last offseason figures to be the ballpark of what it will take to sign Price, as he's the same age that Scherzer was last offseason and actually has a longer track record of success.
The unimpressive October won't knock his price tag down that much, if at all, and if the Blue Jays want to keep him they will no doubt have to waive their franchise rule of not signing players beyond five years.
With Marco Estrada and Mark Buehrle also headed for free agency and top young arms like Daniel Norris, Jeff Hoffman and others moved via trade, the Blue Jays will have to do something to address the rotation one way or another.
Chicago White Sox: 3B David Freese
6 of 30
On the strength of a surprisingly productive season from bargain-bin addition Conor Gillaspie, the Chicago White Sox got some decent production from the third base position in 2014.
The same can't be said for 2015, though:
- 2014: .250/.302/.377, 154 H, 11 HR, 71 RBI, 63 R
- 2015: .226/.277/.345, 133 H, 13 HR, 50 RBI, 59 R
Rookie Tyler Saladino took over as the primary third baseman in the second half, and while he flashed some potential offensively and a terrific glove, his .225/.267/.335 line over 236 at-bats does not exactly warrant everyday playing time at this point.
The top two third basemen on the market will be David Freese and Daniel Murphy, and with the White Sox already featuring a somewhat lefty-heavy lineup, Freese makes more sense as a potential target.
He's dealt with injuries throughout his career, but he's always been a solid run producer, and in his two seasons with the Angels he was a 3.7 WAR player.
Freese had a .743 OPS with 27 doubles, 14 home runs and 56 RBI in 424 at-bats this past season, and something like a three-year, $30 million deal may be enough to land him, depending on how the market shapes up.
The White Sox will also need to decide whether or not to exercise their $10 million option on Alexei Ramirez, and if they don't, shortstop could pass third base as the team's most pressing need.
Cleveland Indians: RP Antonio Bastardo
7 of 30
The Indians have a clear need for a right-handed power bat and may also decide to explore the trade market for first baseman Carlos Santana, but at the end of the day, don't be surprised if it's another fairly quiet winter in Cleveland.
They have never been the type of team to make a splash in free agency, and last time they did it resulted in the signings of Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher.
Instead, they may simply look to shore up the bullpen and add a complementary piece or two on the offensive side of things.
On the surface, the bullpen was rock solid, ranking second in the AL and fourth in all of baseball with a 3.12 ERA.
The trio of Jeff Manship, Zach McAllister and Bryan Shaw setting up closer Cody Allen was terrific all season, but the problem is that all of those guys are right-handed.
With Nick Hagadone undergoing elbow surgery and Kyle Crockett failing to match his rookie success, the team was without a reliable lefty bullpen arm for much of the season, which figures to be their No. 1 target in free agency.
Antonio Bastardo is the best of a free-agent class that also includes Tony Sipp, Oliver Perez, Neal Cotts, Matt Thornton, Joe Beimel and a handful of others.
The 30-year-old appeared in 66 games this year in his first season with the Pittsburgh Pirates, posting a 2.98 ERA, 1.134 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 with one save and nine holds.
Detroit Tigers: SP Scott Kazmir
8 of 30
New general manager Al Avila has some work to do this offseason if the Detroit Tigers are going to rebound from a 87-loss season and make another run at the playoffs.
To his credit, though, he seems to have a clear understanding of what the team needs as he discussed the upcoming offseason with reporters, via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News:
"I think two starting pitchers, added to that rotation, will bring down some of these young guys that we don’t want to force-feed. We can put them right there in Triple-A. It’ll give us the depth to get through 162 games.
And then, of course, the bullpen. The bullpen needs to be addressed. We do have some young guys that we like that should be able to help going into next year. But we do have to acquire at least a couple of bullpen arms, and that’s going to be the key this offseason.
"
Young starters Daniel Norris, Michael Fulmer and Buck Farmer all figure to get a look for a rotation spot alongside veterans Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez, but adding at least one more quality front-line starter to the mix seems like a must.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports listed Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy and Jeff Samardzija as pitchers to which the team has already been linked.
Adding the left-handed Kazmir alongside righties Verlander and Sanchez at the front of the staff would make a lot of sense, and even with a decent raise over the two-year, $22 million deal he signed last time he was a free agent, the Tigers should have the flexibility to make other moves.
Targeting someone from the relief trio of Darren O'Day, Tyler Clippard and Joakim Soria also makes sense, as the bullpen continues to be an issue.
Kansas City Royals: LF Alex Gordon
9 of 30
Alex Gordon certainly sounded like he wanted to stay with the Royals when talking to Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star back in February: "I want to stay here. It’s close to home. Kansas City almost feels like my hometown. We love the city. We love everybody in this organization. And obviously, it’s in a good place right now. It’s come a long way. And I want to be a part of the success that I think we’re still going to have."
That won't stop him from declining his $14 million player option in search of a long-term deal, though, and understandably so.
After watching Shin-Soo Choo land a seven-year, $130 million deal in free agency two years ago, it's hard to imagine Gordon not getting at least nine figures.
As it currently stands, the largest contracts in Kansas City Royals history are a pair of five-year, $55 million deals in the form of an extension for Mike Sweeney and a free-agent deal for Gil Meche.
With Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar and Wade Davis all set to hit free agency after the 2017 season and Salvador Perez deserving a raise, the team needs to start thinking about extending some other core pieces.
However, even with the emergence of all of those players in recent years, Gordon remains the face of the franchise and one of the most valuable players in the game for his all-around skill set.
They may not have the means to pull it off, but expect the team to do everything they can to keep Gordon in a Royals uniform.
Minnesota Twins: RF Torii Hunter
10 of 30
The Minnesota Twins have not had the best luck investing in their starting rotation in recent years.
Ricky Nolasco signed a then-team-record four-year, $49 million deal prior to the 2013 season but has gone 11-14 with a 5.64 ERA over 35 starts in his two seasons with the team.
Phil Hughes proved to be a steal in that same free-agent class on a three-year, $24 million deal, as he went 16-10 with a 3.52 ERA and a record 11.63 K/BB ratio to finish seventh in AL Cy Young voting.
However, the team then handed him a five-year, $58 million extension that replaced the final two years of that deal, and he responded by going 11-9 with a 4.40 ERA in 2015.
Ervin Santana was the big signing last winter, eclipsing the Nolasco deal with a new-team-record four-year, $55 million deal. Shortly after that he was slapped with an 80-game suspension for performance enhancing-drugs. He returned in time to make 17 starts, going 7-5 with a 4.00 ERA.
The point here is, don't expect the Twins to be overly aggressive on the pitching market, despite the fact that the rotation remains perhaps their biggest weakness.
Kyle Gibson and Tommy Milone both pitched well, Hughes and Santana will be back and are capable of more than they showed in 2015 and top prospect Jose Berrios figures to arrive at some point next season.
So with that in mind, re-signing veteran leader Torii Hunter may become the team's top priority this offseason.
"He has said he’s going year to year, but the Twins want him back for at least one more season, according to a team official. The impact Hunter has made in the clubhouse and leading a team featuring some younger players has been off the charts," wrote Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
The leadership he provided on such a young team was invaluable, and even at 40 years old he was no slouch at the plate, as he posted a .702 OPS with 22 doubles and 22 home runs.
Houston Astros: RP Tyler Clippard
11 of 30
Expect the Houston Astros to make a run at re-signing Scott Kazmir or to target another second-tier starter if he winds up signing elsewhere.
Their biggest priority, though, will likely be to further improve the bullpen, a year after spending big money on Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek at the winter meetings.
Those two signings—along with the under-the-radar waivers claim of Will Harris—helped improve the bullpen's ERA from an MLB-worst 4.80 in 2014 to 3.27 this past season, good for sixth in all of baseball.
However, the team still blew 19 saves, and the bullpen racked up 30 losses, so don't be surprised if the Astros are in the market for someone from the trio of Darren O'Day, Tyler Clippard and Joakim Soria.
O'Day is probably the top reliever on the market, but with one sidewinder already in the pen in Neshek, he may not be the best fit for the Astros.
Soria makes sense if the team is looking to move Gregerson out of the closer's role, while Clippard is the better fit if Gregerson is going to stay in the ninth inning and the Astros are looking for setup help.
Assuming someone offers Soria a significant chunk of change to close, Clippard should wind up being their top target to bolster the relief corps.
Expect the team to also bring back left-hander Tony Sipp, who is their primary southpaw and coming off a terrific season.
Los Angeles Angels: 2B/3B Daniel Murphy
12 of 30
With holes to plug at second and third base and a clear need for left-handed hitting, Daniel Murphy looks like the perfect offseason target for the Los Angeles Angels.
As a team, the Angels hit just .236/.289/.356 with 42 home runs and 190 RBI from the left side of the plate, and the bulk of that production came from right fielder Kole Calhoun.
Finding a left-handed bat to slot between Mike Trout and Albert Pujols is a must, and while someone like Alex Gordon or Chris Davis would be nice, this is not an organization that is going to be quick to make another $100 million signing after inflating the payroll in recent years.
Murphy is not necessarily a middle-of-the-order slugger, but he's coming off a strong season in which he hit .281/.322/.449 with 38 doubles, 14 home runs and 73 RBI.
He's always been a below-average defender at second base and actually profiles as a better fit at the hot corner at this point in his career. The Angels have a clear need there with David Freese set to depart in free agency, but Murphy would also be an upgrade over incumbent second baseman Johnny Giavotella.
Murphy is a fringe candidate for a qualifying offer, and which way he falls there will certainly have an impact on his market.
At the end of the day, it may not take more than a three-year deal in the $30-40 million range to sign the 30-year-old former All-Star, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
Oakland Athletics: 2B Howie Kendrick
13 of 30
The Oakland Athletics are an enigma when it comes to trying to predict their offseason doings, as few would have predicted Josh Donaldson would be packing his bags for Toronto at this time last year.
That being said, if the team has any hopes of making a push back toward contention, it will need to upgrade offensively, and second base remains an obvious place to do that.
Eric Sogard is a scrappy fan favorite and a solid defender, but he's always going to be better suited as a utility infielder than an everyday player.
The team finally seemed to recognize that down the stretch when it slid Brett Lawrie from third base to second and inserted Danny Valencia in the everyday lineup after claiming him off waivers.
That alignment could be an option once again, but they may be better suited playing Valencia in left field, moving Lawrie back to third, where he is a plus defender, and signing one of the top second basemen on the market.
This year's second base crop is deeper than any in recent memory, headlined by Ben Zobrist, Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy and Stephen Drew.
Kendrick would give the team a right-handed bat with some pop to hit alongside Josh Reddick in the middle of the lineup, and the depth at the position on the free-agent market could keep his price tag from getting out of hand.
The A's don't spend big very often, but Kendrick would be as safe an investment as any. He's been a model of consistency over the years, hitting .293/.333/.423 for his career with no real "down" seasons on his resume.
Seattle Mariners: SP Hisashi Iwakuma
14 of 30
The Seattle Mariners could wind up making a run at a big bat to play left field or first base, but their No. 1 priority appears to be coming to terms on a new deal with veteran starter Hisashi Iwakuma.
According to Jim Bowden of ESPN, new general manager Jerry DiPoto has indicated that re-signing the 34-year-old will be a priority.
Bringing him back alongside Felix Hernandez, Taijuan Walker and James Paxton would give the team a good enough rotation to contend, assuming everyone avoids injury and pitches up to his potential.
Iwakuma struggled early in the season and missed time with a lat injury, but he rounded into form nicely to go 8-4 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in the second half.
While others like J.A. Happ, Austin Jackson and Fernando Rodney wound up traded once the Mariners officially decided to waive the white flag, the team held onto Iwakuma with the full intention of bringing him back for 2016 and beyond.
Expect a deal to come quickly after the offseason starts, and from there the team can turn its attention to finding another bat and upgrading the bullpen.
Texas Rangers: SP Colby Lewis
15 of 30
The return of Yu Darvish next season will give the Texas Rangers a formidable starting rotation, as he'll join deadline pickup Cole Hamels as well as left-handers Derek Holland and Martin Perez.
The big question is: Who fills the No. 5 starter spot in the rotation, and will the team bring back Yovani Gallardo or Colby Lewis to fill that role?
Gallardo is six years younger, but he'll also be significantly more expensive, and the market could wind up driving his price beyond what he's worth.
On the surface, Gallardo had a great year at 13-11 with a 3.42 ERA.
However, that came with a 1.416 WHIP, a 4.00 FIP and a career-low 5.9 K/9 as his strikeout rate declined for the fourth straight season.
Meanwhile, Lewis led the team in innings pitched for the second consecutive season, going 17-9 with a 4.66 ERA in a career-high 204.2 innings of work.
His peripheral numbers were solid as well, as he had a 1.236 WHIP, 4.17 FIP and 6.2 K/9, and all on a one-year, $4 million deal.
Even if the Rangers were to double that salary and give him a two-year deal, he'd still come significantly cheaper than Gallardo, who is likely headed for a four- or five-year deal in the $10-12 million-per-year range at least.
Lewis is the perfect innings-eating veteran to fill the No. 5 spot in a rotation that should be a significant weapon next season, and signing Lewis over Gallardo would give the Rangers significantly more money to address other areas.
Atlanta Braves: C Matt Wieters
16 of 30
Christian Bethancourt looked like the future at the catcher position for the Atlanta Braves, and after Brian McCann departed in free agency and Evan Gattis was traded he appeared to have a clear path to the job.
A.J. Pierzynski was signed in the offseason to a one-year, $2 million deal in the offseason, but he was not expected to be anything more than a backup at the position and a veteran presence on a young team.
Instead, Bethancourt struggled early and wound up demoted to the minors, while Pierzynski turned in his best season in years with a .300 average, .769 OPS and a 1.6 WAR.
Bringing the 38-year-old Pierzynski back on another short-term deal remains an option, but expect the team to look for more of a long-term solution this winter, and Matt Wieters just might be the answer.
"Matt Wieters would appear to be a natural fit for the Braves in free agency," said Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. "He attended Georgia Tech and owns a home in Atlanta."
The 29-year-old endured a trying season in 2015 as he made his way back from Tommy John surgery, tallying just 248 at-bats and hitting .267/.319/.422 with 14 doubles and eight home runs.
However, prior to being injured, he was one of the game's elite defensive catchers, a perennial 20-home run threat and a three-time All-Star.
He still has time to return to his All-Star form, and he could wind up being a solid value signing, though don't expect him to settle for a bargain contract as a Scott Boras client.
With a young team in Atlanta, and a particularly young pitching staff, his ability to lead the staff could go a long way in helping the team's rebuilding efforts.
Miami Marlins: 1B/OF Steve Pearce
17 of 30
The first-base position has been quite the revolving door for the Miami Marlins in recent years, and they really have not had stability at the position since Gaby Sanchez turned in consecutive strong seasons in 2010 and 2011.
Since then, the team has trotted out the likes of Greg Dobbs, Logan Morrison, Carlos Lee, Casey Kotchman, Ed Lucas, Jeff Baker and a pair of recent free-agent signings in Garrett Jones and Michael Morse with varying levels of futility.
Credit to 27-year-old Justin Bour for providing some nice value this season with a .262/.321/.479 line and 23 home runs in 409 at-bats, but his 21.5 percent HR/FB rate (per FanGraphs) is not sustainable, and his only real value is in his power.
He also hit just .221/.293/.279 against left-handed pitching, so at the very least the team will need to find him a suitable platoon partner.
In fact, adding depth to the roster as a whole is the biggest need for the Marlins this offseason, and adding someone with the versatility of Steve Pearce could go a long way.
Pearce was one of the surprise stars of 2014, hitting .293/.373/.556 with 26 doubles and 21 home runs in 338 at-bats for a 5.9 WAR.
Those numbers proved to be unsustainable, though, as he hit just .218/.289/.422 with 13 doubles and 15 home runs in 294 at-bats for a minus-0.4 WAR in 2015.
While he's not the star he looked like in '14, that doesn't mean there's not value in his power production and defensive versatility.
Over the past two seasons, Pearce has seen time at first base, second base, left field and right field.
Using him as a platoon bat with Bour at first base and a part-time starter/insurance policy in the outfield makes a lot of sense for a Marlins team whose top priority figures to be extending their own young core.
New York Mets: LF Yoenis Cespedes
18 of 30
Just how much of an impact did Yoenis Cespedes make on the New York Mets lineup after being acquired at the deadline?
Prior to trading for the slugger, the Mets had a 53-50 record, and their offense was bordering on anemic at 3.54 runs per game.
After the trade, the team went 37-22 and averaged an impressive 5.39 runs per game to secure the NL East title.
On top of his impressive power and run-production abilities, he also graded out as an elite defender this season (11 DRS, 14.5 UZR/150) and has one of the strongest throwing arms in all of baseball as he's piled up 48 outfield assists in his four big league seasons.
The Mets outfield situation could get a bit crowded in the near future with Curtis Granderson, Juan Lagares and Michael Cuddyer under contract for next season, Michael Conforto making a splash as a rookie this season and fellow prospect Brandon Nimmo knocking on the door.
All of that said, the Mets still need to do everything in their power to bring back Cespedes.
"My only hope is to stay healthy," Cespedes told Marly Rivera of ESPN Deportes (via Yahoo Sports). "I'm not thinking about a contract, but I do know that I will be looking for a contract that is six years or more, has to be six years or more. We'll see what happens."
A six-year, $120 million deal may be the floor of what Cespedes is worth on the open market, and the Mets would be wise to move quickly before other suitors start to drive up the price.
Philadelphia Phillies: SP Doug Fister
19 of 30
As a rebuilding team that is several years from contention, the Philadelphia Phillies won't be making any splash free-agent signings anytime soon.
However, they will be looking for some veteran arms to help eat innings, and ideally that would come from a bounce-back pitcher who rebuilds some value and can be flipped for prospects at the trade deadline.
It worked for the Chicago Cubs while they were rebuilding, as they bought low on Scott Feldman and Jason Hammel and then flipped them in trades that brought the team Jake Arrieta, Addison Russell and Pedro Strop.
There are a few intriguing reclamation projects on the market this year, but the two names that stick out are Doug Fister and Mat Latos.
While there may still be a team out there willing to take a chance on Latos with a two-year, Fister will almost certainly have to settle for a one-year, incentive-laden contract as he looks to rebuild his stock for another run at free agency.
A case could be made for Fister being one of the most underrated pitchers in the game entering the 2015 season, as he went 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA to finish eighth in NL Cy Young voting in 2014, but he was something of a forgotten man on his own team.
Forearm tightness cost him over a month early in the season this year, and he simply never looked comfortable in going 4-7 with a 4.60 ERA over 15 starts before finally being demoted to the bullpen.
Most concerning of all is the fact that the velocity on both his fastball (87.9 mph to 86.4 mph) and cutter (84.1 mph to 81.8 mph) dropped significantly, according to FanGraphs.
Still, this is a pitcher who was 51-38 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.163 WHIP from 2011 to 2014, and it's worth taking a chance on his 2015 performance simply being a fluke.
Washington Nationals: CF Gerardo Parra
20 of 30
The Washington Nationals are set to lose a number of significant pieces this offseason, with Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Desmond, Denard Span and Doug Fister all headed for free agency.
The emergence of Joe Ross and impending arrival of top prospect Lucas Giolito gives the team some options in replacing Zimmermann and Fister long term, and fellow prospect Trea Turner figures to slide in as the starting shortstop at some point in 2016.
That leaves center field and the leadoff spot in the lineup, previous occupied by Span, as the main areas that need to be addressed this offseason.
Michael Taylor was expected to replace Span in both the short and long term, but he raised enough questions in an extended look this past season that the team may explore other options.
Over 472 at-bats, Taylor hit .229/.282/.358 with 15 doubles, 14 home runs, 63 RBI and 16 stolen bases as he graded out as a replacement-level player with a 0.0 WAR.
The 24-year-old has a nice mix of power and speed and an impressive minor league track record, but until he cuts down on his strikeouts (30.9 percent) and takes more walks (6.8 percent), he really doesn't profile as a leadoff hitter.
Simply re-signing Span is an option, but the team could also look to someone like Gerardo Parra to step into that role.
Parra hit .291/.328/.452 with 35 doubles, 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases in a career year offensively for the Brewers and Orioles, though he struggled after being traded to Baltimore with a .237/.268/.357 line in 224 at-bats.
He is a Gold Glove defender at all three outfield spots and has succeeded in the fourth outfielder role in the past, so adding Parra to the outfield mix and letting the at-bats work themselves out between him, Taylor and the oft-injured Jayson Werth seems like a good approach to upgrading the roster this winter.
Chicago Cubs: SP David Price
21 of 30
Even after signing Jon Lester to a $155 million deal last offseason and with a lucrative extension on the horizon for Jake Arrieta, the Chicago Cubs will still have plenty of money to spend this coming winter.
The team's payroll peaked at roughly $144 million in 2010, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, before the team sold off its veteran pieces and started to rebuild.
After bottoming out at $92.6 million in 2014, the team's Opening Day payroll this year was $120.3 million, so there is already some wiggle room between where it's at and its previous ceiling.
Throw in the added revenue of a playoff run and the Ricketts dedication to putting a winner on the field, and money should not get in the way of the Cubs pursuing whoever they want in free agency this winter.
Re-signing Dexter Fowler and adding a few bullpen arms, along with the aforementioned Arrieta extension, will all be on the to-do list.
However, the team's top priority will be finding another front-line arm to slot alongside Arrieta and Lester at the top of the rotation.
Jason Hammel struggled mightily down the stretch, Kyle Hendricks will likely never be more than a solid No. 4 starter and the No. 5 spot in the rotation was a revolving door all season, so the rotation is a question mark.
With money to spend and a good working relationship with manager Joe Maddon, left-hander David Price may wind up being the team's top target.
He's the same age as Max Scherzer when he signed a seven-year, $210 million deal last offseason, so adding Price will come at a steep...price.
However, there is little question he is one of the game's true aces, and adding him to the mix would give the Cubs a trio that stacks up to any in baseball.
Cincinnati Reds: LF Gerardo Parra
22 of 30
The Cincinnati Reds have a busy offseason ahead of them, as their biggest moves will likely come on the selling end of some major trades.
Aroldis Chapman is all but certain to be moved, while guys like Todd Frazier, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce could all be shopped depending on how aggressive the team decides to be this winter.
Two big areas of need that the Cincinnati Reds will need to address one way or another, though, are finding a new left fielder and a leadoff hitter.
With Marlon Byrd traded to the San Francisco Giants and top prospect Jesse Winker still probably a year away in the minors, finding a stopgap option to man left field will be a top priority.
Meanwhile, the leadoff spot in the lineup has been a mess for years now, and the hope was that speedy Billy Hamilton could grow into that role.
However, he hit just .226/.274/.289 on the year, and that took a lot of the luster off his 57 stolen bases, as it's hard to trust him to get on base enough to hit leadoff.
Gerardo Parra could be the answer to both of those areas of need, as he's a plus defender at all three outfield spots and has a good enough mix of contact, speed and on-base skills to profile as the best leadoff hitter the team has had since Shin-Soo Choo.
A career year offensive has set Parra up for at least a three-year deal with a decent annual value, but much like the Atlanta Braves signing of Nick Markakis last winter, adding Parra is the type of deal that can help a team through a rebuilding stage.
Milwaukee Brewers: CF Austin Jackson
23 of 30
The Milwaukee Brewers have their work cut out for them climbing back into contention in the NL Central, and at this point they may be better off committing to a full-blown rebuild and selling off guys like Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy this offseason.
Regardless of what route they decide to take, center field appears to be an area of need after Carlos Gomez was traded to the Houston Astros at the deadline.
One of the players heading back to Milwaukee in that trade, Domingo Santana, saw significant action in center field down the stretch, but as the defensive metrics show (-3 DRS, -26.6 UZR/150) he's much better suited for a corner spot.
Another prospect picked up in that deal by the name of Brett Phillips does profile as a future center fielder, but he's still probably at least a year away from reaching the majors, so look for the team to sign a stopgap option.
After a terrific first four seasons in the league while playing with the Tigers, Austin Jackson has struggled the past two years with a .261/.310/.364 line.
The 28-year-old still has upside, but he'll likely need to settle for a one-year deal to rebuild some value, and the Brewers could sign him with the intention of flipping him in July if he does in fact bounce back.
Pittsburgh Pirates: SP Mat Latos
24 of 30
No team has had better luck with reclamation projects in recent years than the Pittsburgh Pirates, as they've bought low on guys such as Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez and Vance Worley and gotten solid value.
Even this past season they turned a 34-year-old Joe Blanton into a viable contributor out of the bullpen and made J.A. Happ look like a front-line starter after acquiring him at the deadline.
So who could be the team's next fixer-upper?
How about right-hander Mat Latos, who is still just 27 years old and not all that far removed from going 51-35 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.161 WHIP and 8.4 K/9 while averaging 200 innings per season from 2010 to 2013.
After an injury-plagued 2014 season, he was traded to the Miami Marlins last winter and all told he went 4-10 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.307 WHIP in 116.1 innings of work with the Marlins, Dodgers and Angels in 2015.
So what makes him a potential bounce-back candidate under Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage?
His 3.72 FIP, compared to a 4.95 ERA, points to a pitcher in line for some positive regression. He also saw an improvement in his velocity as the season went on, according to Brooks Baseball, as his stuff appeared to be on the upswing after he'd struggled to regain his form following knee surgery.
A one-year deal with a second-year option, similar to what the team gave Liriano when they signed him prior to the 2013 season, could set the Pirates up with one of the best bargains on the free-agent market if Latos can return to form.
St. Louis Cardinals: RF Jason Heyward
25 of 30
Giving up Shelby Miller and his five remaining years of team control, as well as top prospect Tyrell Jenkins, was a steep price for the St. Louis Cardinals to pay in acquiring Jason Heyward last offseason.
Heyward enjoyed a solid first season in St. Louis, especially in the second half, but the only way the team can get equivalent value out of that trade is if they can find a way to re-sign him this winter.
At 6'5", 245 pounds and with a smooth left-handed swing, Heyward looks like someone who should be a perennial 30-homer threat in the middle of the lineup.
Instead, his value stems from his defense, speed and on-base skills.
Since his rookie season in 2010 he ranks ninth among all position players with a 31.0 WAR, and his 119 DRS over that span are the most in all of baseball as he's a truly elite defender.
Then there is the fact that he's still just 26 years old, abnormally young for a player to be reaching free agency for the first time.
That means a team can offer up an eight-year deal and be paying for nothing but prime seasons, and may very well drive his asking price north of $200 million.
Should Heyward wind up signing somewhere else, the team does have other options with Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, Tommy Pham, Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos all in the mix for outfield playing time.
He's the kind of player who can be a franchise cornerstone for them, though, and they'll make every attempt to keep.
Arizona Diamondbacks: RP Aroldis Chapman
26 of 30
The Arizona Diamondbacks thought they had found their closer of the future when they acquired Addison Reed from the Chicago White Sox, but he flopped in the desert and was shipped to the New York Mets in August.
Veteran Brad Ziegler manned the closer's role for most of the 2015 season, and he more than held his own, converting 30-of-32 save chances with a 1.85 ERA and 0.956 WHIP.
However, the 36-year-old is not your conventional late-inning reliever, evidenced by his 4.8 K/9 strikeout rate and he is still better suited for the eighth-inning role.
Steve Gilbert of MLB.com provided an offseason preview for the Diamondbacks, and he pointed to a certain flame-throwing reliever the team targeted at the deadline as a potential target once again this offseason.
"The D-backs made a big push for Reds closer Aroldis Chapman at the July 31 nonwaiver trade deadline and could pursue a trade for him again over the winter," Gilbert wrote. "Ziegler did another outstanding job in the closer's role in 2015 and will have a prominent role one way or another in 2016."
The Diamondbacks are loaded with young pitching talent, and they are deep enough on prospects that they could put together an intriguing package for Chapman without selling the farm.
Otherwise, expect them to turn their attention to Joakim Soria on the free-agent market or fellow trade candidate Craig Kimbrel in their efforts to bolster the pen.
Colorado Rockies: SP Mike Pelfrey
27 of 30
Pitching remains the most glaring area of need for the Colorado Rockies, and convincing front-line pitchers to come pitch at elevation continues to be tricky.
Whether to trade Carlos Gonzalez will be the team's biggest offseason decision, and he could certainly bring back some quality arms if he is in fact moved.
As far a certain player the team will be targeting, though, Mike Pelfrey stands out from the list of second-tier arms they could wind up kicking the tires on.
Pelfrey began his season by losing out on the fifth starter's spot and essentially requesting a trade from the Minnesota Twins, according to the Pioneer Press, but he wound up spending the entire season in the rotation anyway as a result of injuries and the suspension of Ervin Santana.
The 31-year-old finished the year at 6-11 with a 4.26 ERA (4.00 FIP) and a 1.476 WHIP in 164.2 innings of work.
What makes him a potential target for the Rockies is his ability to keep the ball on the ground, as his 51.0 percent ground-ball rate was 19th among qualified starters and well above the league average, according to FanGraphs.
Pelfrey went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA back in 2010, but was slowed by injuries in subsequent seasons. Now that he's finally back healthy, he looks like a solid back-of-the-rotation arm with some upside in the right situation.
He's not an ace, but he'd add a veteran presence to a young Rockies staff and his repertoire should play well at Coors Field.
Los Angeles Dodgers: SP Zack Greinke
28 of 30
At this point, it's hard to see the Los Angeles Dodgers letting Zack Greinke get away.
On the heels of a brilliant 2015 season, Greinke will almost certainly exercise the opt-out in his contract and leave the remaining three years and $77 million of his current deal on the table in search of another long-term contract.
For all intents and purposes, the Dodgers have infinity dollars to spend in free agency.
Signing David Price would make the rotation heavy on left-handed starters, while Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto are both a notch below Greinke.
So at this point, who would they really rather have than Greinke?
And on the other side of things, the Dodgers haven't won anything to this point, but what team is really set up better for long-term success than they are given their deep farms system and deeper pockets?
An argument can be made for a team like the Chicago Cubs, and Greinke would have to at least consider them if they were willing to match what the Dodgers were offering.
At this point, though, all signs point to Greinke simply re-upping with the Dodgers on a five- or six-year deal and a higher annual salary.
San Diego Padres: SS Ian Desmond
29 of 30
Shortstop was a clear hole for the San Diego Padres this season, and it's a position they may be willing to invest some significant money in this winter with no clear in-house answer.
Alexi Amarista (79), Clint Barmes (51), Jedd Gyorko (28) and Will Middlebrooks (four) all saw time at the position, and the combined result was a .228/.279/.365 line with 14 home runs and 57 RBI.
Gyorko and Middlebrooks both have offensive upside, but neither is a natural fit for the position defensively. Amarista and Barmes have solid gloves but provide next to nothing offensively.
That could mean the team turns their attention to the free-agent market, and while Asdrubal Cabrera would be an upgrade at a reasonable price, expect them to at least explore the idea of making a splash and signing Ian Desmond.
After three consecutive 20-20 seasons in which he hit .275/.326/.462 and compiled a combined 10.9 WAR, Desmond suffered through a down season at the worst possible time.
The 30-year-old hit .233/.290/.384 with 27 doubles, 19 home runs and 13 stolen bases this season for a 2.0 WAR, and at this point he has to regret not signing a lucrative extension with the Nationals when he had the chance.
According to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, Desmond turned down a seven-year, $107 million extension offer prior to the start of the 2014 season.
That said, he rebounded nicely to hit .262/.331/.446 with 10 doubles and 12 home runs in the second half, rebuilding a good deal of value in the process.
He won't touch $107 million or seven years, but he won't come particularly cheap either, so the Padres will need to decide just how much they're willing to invest in an upgrade at shortstop with other needs on the roster to address as well.
San Francisco Giants: SP Jordan Zimmermann
30 of 30
The time has come for the San Francisco Giants to make some significant changes to their starting rotation, and that could mean a splash signing in free agency.
Madison Bumgarner is firmly entrenched as the team's ace, but the rest of the staff behind him is one big question mark looking ahead to 2016.
Observe:
- Matt Cain: Only 53.2 IP in '15 and a 6.20 ERA
- Chris Heston: So-so second half, probably No. 4/5 guy long term
- Tim Hudson: Retiring
- Mike Leake: Free agent
- Tim Lincecum: Free agent
- Jake Peavy: 34, entering final year of contract, only 110.2 IP in '15
- Ryan Vogelsong: Free agent
The team is expected to make a run at re-signing Mike Leake, but he is best suited as a No. 3 starter, so a run at one of the front-line arms on the market looks like a must if they hope to have any chance of keeping their odd-numbered year streak going.
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports pointed to Jordan Zimmermann as a likely Giants target all the way back in August, and he would certainly be a formidable No. 2 behind Bumgarner.
Top prospect Tyler Beede could also reach the majors at some point in 2016, and he has front-line potential.
A staff of Bumgarner, Zimmermann, Leake, Peavy and Heston to start the year with Beede joining them at some point and anything Matt Cain provides as icing on the cake could be enough for the rotation to once again be a strength in San Francisco.
All standard statistics and WAR totals courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, while defensive stats come via FanGraphs.
.png?w=480)
