NFL Predictions Week 5: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

Where did the first four weeks of the season go? Here it is, October 2015, and the season we've been waiting since before anybody'd ever heard of the Ideal Gas Law is already one-quarter over.

For some talent-laden 2014 playoff teams like the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, it feels like the season's over before it started; they're three or four games behind their respective division leaders after just four games.

For some bottom-feeding 2014 teams off to a hot start—like the New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons and Oakland Raiders—they'd like to skip the other three-quarters of the season and just start the playoffs now, please.

Either of the above can apply to star players in a bit of a slump, or surprise standouts who had a brilliant September.

But from here on in, nothing that happens is a fluke: A 1-4 team or 0-5 team is doomed, no matter how good they looked on paper at the start of the season; a 5-0 or 4-1 team is a forced to be reckoned with, no matter how thin or lucky they seem at first glance.

Once again, Bleacher Report's panel of top NFL writers has gathered to project the unknowable: upsets, blowouts, overs, unders, stars, flops and sleepers at every position.

Biggest Upset

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Detroit (+2.5) over Arizona—four votes

The 0-4 Lions are the NFL's last winless team, and many NFL experts have the Lions at (or near) the bottom of their power rankings this week—and sure, that makes sense.

But they were up 21-3 over the San Diego Chargers before losing by five, were down just 17-12 to the Broncos for much of the fourth quarter and even the NFL admits the Lions deserved to beat the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle.

In the NFL, it's just as hard to lose five games in a row as it is to win five straight. The Cardinals are a tough team to face in a must-win game, but half of our experts liked Detroit to pull it off.

The New Orleans Saints, riding high after their overtime victory over the Dallas Cowboys, got two votes to upset the all-over-the-place Philadelphia Eagles.

Others receiving votes: New Orleans Saints (+4.5) over Philadelphia Eagles—two votes, Chicago Bears over Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans over Indianapolis Colts

Biggest Blowout

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Buffalo Bills over Tennessee Titans—three votes

It's a bad week for blowouts.

Some of the NFL's high-powered offenses are facing stout defenses this week—see the Packers, Green Bay, and Rams, St. Louis. Therefore, it follows that a lot of the league's softest defenses are matched up against some of its least-potent offenses—so it's hard to imagine a lot of pinball scores. 

You just can't beat a good old-fashioned mollywhopping, though, and that's what's likely to happen when the violent, physical Buffalo Bills meet Marcus Mariota—per Pro Football Reference, the third-most frequently sacked quarterback in the NFL, dropped on 11 percent of his dropbacks so far.

Tyrod Taylor probably won't hang a 50-burger on Tennessee, but shouldn't have any problem throwing (or running) for scores against the league's 22nd-ranked scoring defense.

Two of our experts nominated the Patriots over the Cowboys, likely because when we last saw the Patriots on the field, they'd have blown out anybody anywhere.

Others receiving votes: New England Patriots over Dallas Cowboys—two votes, Baltimore Ravens over Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers over St. Louis Rams, New York Giants over San Francisco 49ers

Higher Total: Tom Brady Passing Yards or Dallas Cowboys Offensive Yards?

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Tom Brady—five votes

It may sound silly to compare one quarterback's passing production to his opponent's entire offensive production. It may sound even sillier that a majority of our experts expect Tom Brady's passing yards to outstrip the Cowboys team on Sunday. The math, though, is eerily close.

Brady is averaging an astounding 370.7 passing yards per game in 2015, while the Cowboys offense is averaging 369.3 total yards. However, the Patriots rank 20th in yardage defense, and the Cowboys' 19th-ranked passing yardage defense is getting pass-rusher Greg Hardy and linebacker Rolando McClain back this week.

Given a bye week to prepare, Brady should be firing on all cylinders—but we haven't yet seen this Cowboys defense with two of its top free-agent signings.

Others receiving votes: Dallas Cowboys—three votes

Biggest Mismatch

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: (tie, two votes each) Cincinnati Bengals defensive line vs. Seattle Seahawks offensive line, Julio Jones vs. Washington secondary

In Week 4, the Bengals defensive line let the whole world know it's still every bit as good as it's been over the prior few seasons, sacking Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith five times for minus-38 yards. Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks offensive line is fresh off a nightmare performance: Quarterback Russell Wilson was dropped six times for a total of 52 lost yards—plus two fumbles, both of which were lost.

It's easy enough for our experts to put two and two together here and vote for this matchup—but only two of them did.

Two other experts went with Julio Jones, the Falcons' stud wideout who had a relatively quiet Week 4 after a historically bonkers opening three games. However, it's worth noting: Washington's secondary has been a problem area for years, but so far in 2015 they actually rank ninth in the NFL in passing yardage defense, per Pro Football Reference. 

Others receiving votes: Philip Rivers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers secondary, "anything" vs. San Francisco 49ers passing game

Sleeper QB Performance

R Brent Smith/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Blake Bortles—four votes

These...are some sleepy quarterbacks.

When last we saw Blake Bortles and his Jacksonville Jaguars, they were blowing multiple game-winning chances against the Indianapolis Colts. However, he's averaging 271 yards per game over the last three games—with a bomb of at least 48 yards in all three. He's getting vertical with ease; he could put up some serious numbers against the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their 30th-ranked scoring defense.

Of course, Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers are probably licking their chops for a chance at the 1-3 Jaguars and their 26th-ranked passing defense, which is why NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon went with Winston.

From a competitive football standpoint, this game should be be a boondoggle—but if you're after an overlooked quarterback for your fantasy team, look no further than the sleepiest football matchup on the Week 5 schedule.

Others receiving votes: Tyrod Taylor, Mike Vick, Jameis Winston

More Passing Yards: Blake Bortles or Jameis Winston?

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: (tie, four votes each) Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles

The Expert Consensus Voting Room had just cooled down from a marathon session of heated debate over this week's Sleeper QB Performance slide when the next topic of discussion was read aloud.

"More Passing Yards: Blake Bortles or Jameis Winston?"

The donnybrook that followed lasted hours, cost thousands in broken office furniture and had to be broken up by NFL Deputy Editor Collin McCollough, wielding a taser and a garden hose.

In the end, no majority decision could be reached. Four went with Winston and the Bucs' high-powered weapons against the Jags' soft secondary. Four went with Bortles and his long-ball proclivity against the Bucs' third-worst scoring defense.

More Turnovers: Cleveland Browns or Baltimore Ravens?

Aaron Josefczyk/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Cleveland Browns—seven votes

Josh McCown and the Cleveland Browns love to turn it over.

After just four games they've given the ball to the other team eight times. That's tied for fourth-worst in the NFL, and is enough to make seven of our editors punch the Browns' side of the ticket on this one.

But Joe Flacco and the Ravens have been uncharacteristically philanthropic with the pigskin in 2015; through four games they've turned it over seven times—just one less than the Browns. Moreover, Tashaun Gipson and the Browns defense has forced five turnovers this year, one more than the usually dominant Ravens D.

It's no wonder our experts overwhelmingly favored Cleveland here, but it's hard to find fault in NFL Analyst Sean Tomlinson for zagging when everyone else zigged.

Others receiving votes: Baltimore Ravens—one vote

Sleeper RB Performance

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Lorenzo Taliaferro—two votes

Nearly every week, the Bleacher Report NFL Expert Consensus Panel splits their eight-person vote five or six different ways when it comes to the Sleeper RB Performance category.

This week, it was seven.

Ravens short-yardage workhorse Lorenzo Taliaferro should have some opportunities against the struggling Cleveland Browns. Not only should the Ravens be able to run the ball, they'll have to—with receiver Steve Smith out due to injury and starting left tackle Eugene Monroe finally healthy, offensive coordinator Marc Trestman will be all but forced to lean hard on his power back.

Six other tailbacks got one vote each from our panelists; though none stuck out enough to get two votes, each has a compelling case. NFL Analyst Ty Schalter cast his vote for Joseph Randle; not only is the Dallas Cowboys running back committee down one member due to injury, the New England Patriots are actually tied for the NFL's worst per-carry run defense, per Pro Football Reference.

Others receiving votes: Arian Foster, Roy Helu, Matt Jones, Joseph Randle, Thomas Rawls, T.J. Yeldon

Sleeper WR Performance

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Brice Butler—three votes

One target, one catch, 67 yards.

That, per Pro Football Reference, is the 2015 stat line for Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Brice Butler, who turned heads nationwide with a huge catch against the New Orleans Saints in Week 4.

For the Dez Bryant-less Cowboys, a 6'3", 215-pound wideout—no matter how young, how raw, how inexperienced—is an absolutely vital weapon. Even if he's only making one or two big plays like that a game for Brandon Weeden and the Cowboys, he's a potent sleeper who could take advantage of a thin Patriots secondary.

Getting two more votes was Leonard Hankerson, who after making a fine impression in the preseason has been making hay in secondaries giving all their attention to Julio Jones. As long as opposing teams are laying off of Hankerson and putting everyone they've got on Jones, quarterback Matt Ryan will continue to find Hankerson.

Others receiving votes: Leonard Hankerson—two votes, Jason Avant, Allen Hurns, Willie Snead

Sleeper TE Performance

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Owen Daniels—four votes

Owen Daniels has spent much of his career being a "sleeper," a productive pass-catching tight end who's teased, flashed and otherwise displayed rare ability over his 10-year career. But he's never quite broken through to the other side, never quite put 16 dominant games together.

For the purposes of the Week 5 consensus awards, we don't need to see the new Broncos tight end string together a whole bunch of great games; we only need to see him doing great against the AFC West upstart Oakland Raiders this Sunday—and four of our experts expect exactly that.

Zach Ertz, the Eagles tight end, is an intriguing choice by NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon. Not only was Ertz slowed early in the season by recovery from a sports hernia, Ertz and the Eagles are facing the New Orleans Saints—who, per Pro Football Focus, have graded out dead last in pass coverage over the first four games.

Others receiving votes: Martellus Bennett, Charles Clay, Zach Ertz

Best Defensive Performance

Steven Senne/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: New England Patriots—three votes

The Patriots have the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL, but only the No. 17 scoring defense. That said, they're facing the Dallas Cowboys, who are starting Brandon Weeden—who, over his brief career, has thrown interceptions more frequently than touchdowns. 

NFL Analyst Gary Davenport, though, chose to keep his eternal flame for J.J. Watt burning:

"

It's hardly like J.J. Watt hasn't been posting solid numbers so far this season, with 23 tackles and four sacks through four games. But Watt hasn't had a truly dominant game in 2015—like, say, the six tackles and two sacks he put up the last time the Texans and Colts squared off. Or the seven tackles and two sacks the time before that.

"

Others receiving votes: New York Giants—two votes, J.J. Watt, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills

Over/Under: 7 Total Sacks by Rams/Packers

JAMES A. FINLEY/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: OVER—six votes

It's no secret the St. Louis Rams have one of the most, if not the most talented defensive line in the NFL. It's no surprise they're currently tied for second in most total sacks so far in 2015, or ranked third in per-play sack rate.

But would you believe they're tied with the Packers for second-most total sacks—and the Packers are on top of the sack-frequency heap with a terrifying 11.5 percent?

Dom Capers' effectiveness as a defensive coordinator has been called into question plenty of times, but what he's doing in Green Bay is truly remarkable. They currently sit fifth in NFL passer rating allowed and second in interception rate.

 Both of these defenses will be looking to feast on their opponent's quarterback—but if two of the smartest coaches in the NFL can't figure out how to stop the bleeding, maybe it just...won't...stop.

Others receiving votes: UNDER—one vote

Flop of the Week

Expert Consensus Pick: Russell Wilson—four votes

Russell Wilson was incredibly lucky the officials didn't flag teammate K.J. Wright for illegally batting the ball out of bounds on Week 4's Monday Night Football. Not only did not calling it save them that game, it likely also saved a whole lot of negative takes about his profound struggles against the aggressive Lions pass rush.

While it's easy to believe that one win got Wilson and the Seahawks back on track, it's probably wrong—not to mention Seattle's Week 5 opponent is a streaking Cincinnati Bengals team dead set on proving their worth to to the world.

When it comes to betting against the Browns, NFL Analyst Gary Davenport's piling all his chips:

"

What can you say about the Cleveland Browns? They can't run the ball or stop the run. The head coach honestly appears hellbent on making as many bad decisions as possible in the hopes of being fired. And every week the team finds a new way to lose. And those uniforms. My God those uniforms.

"

Others receiving votes: "Any and all things Cleveland," Indianapolis Colts, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston