Bleacher Report's Final 2015 Year-End MLB Award Picks
Baseball fans have been arguing the merits of various major award candidates since before the All-Star break, but with the postseason officially underway, the bodies of work are complete and the voters have submitted their ballots.
The winners won't be announced until after the World Series wraps up, but it's time now to make our final year-end award picks for each of the four majors awards.
Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player are the four awards voted on by the Baseball Writers Associations of America, and those are the four honors we'll focus on here.
Just like the actual ballots, we've picked a top 10 for MVP, top five for Cy Young and top three for Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year, as well as provided a full breakdown of what makes the No. 1 guy on each of those ballots a deserving choice.
So without further ado, here is a look at Bleacher Report's final 2015 year-end award picks.
NL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon, Chicago Cubs
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Full Ballot Prediction
| 1. Joe Maddon, CHC | 97-65, No. 2 NL Wild Card, +24-win improvement |
| 2. Mike Matheny, STL | 100-62, NL Central Champs, +10-win improvement |
| 3. Clint Hurdle, PIT | 98-64, No. 1 NL Wild Card, +10-win improvement |
Winner Overview
After spending nine seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays and helping turn the franchise from a laughingstock into a perennial contender, Joe Maddon joined the Chicago Cubs this past offseason to lead their youth movement.
"Joe is the perfect manager for this team and this situation," president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said, per Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago. "It’s authentic. He brings everybody up around him, keeps it loose. It’s great for young players. They love being around him. There’s no doubt we’re not here today without him."
It was more of the same from general manager Jed Hoyer when he talked to Mooney.
"Joe’s been the perfect manager for this group," Hoyer said. "He’s had exactly the right touch at the right moment. He knows when to step on the gas, when to give guys hugs, when to give guys rest. He’s been ideal.
"It is hard to imagine us having this kind of success with this young group without having Joe at the helm."
Props go to Mike Matheny for winning 100 games with a St. Louis Cardinals team that was hit hard by injuries this season, but Maddon should be an easy choice for NL Manager of the Year.
He's taken a young, inexperienced Cubs roster and far exceeded expectations on his way to leading the club to its first postseason appearance since 2008 and a 24-win improvement over its 2014 finish.
AL Manager of the Year: Jeff Banister, Texas Rangers
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Full Ballot Prediction
| 1. Jeff Banister, TEX | 88-74, AL West Champs, +21-win improvement |
| 2. Paul Molitor, MIN | 83-79, Second in AL Central, +13-win improvement |
| 3. A.J. Hinch, HOU | 86-76, No. 2 AL Wild Card, +16-win improvement |
Winner Overview
After an injury-plagued 2014 season, it looked like the Texas Rangers were headed for disaster once again when ace Yu Darvish was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery.
"Through every obstacle there is opportunity," new manager Jeff Banister told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News following the Darvish injury in early March. "It can either destroy us or galvanize us and make us stronger. We can either crumble and give in—and that’s not in my DNA—or we can come together."
Despite issues on both sides of the ball, including several other key injuries, the team managed to stay afloat into the summer and entered the trade deadline with a 50-52 record on the year.
A blockbuster deal to acquire Cole Hamels just before the deadline was viewed by most as a move intended to help the Rangers make a run in 2016, but instead they rallied to go 38-22 the rest of way and win the AL West title.
After spending four years as bench coach to Clint Hurdle in Pittsburgh, Banister has made the most of his first chance as an MLB manager this year. He's quickly instilled his never-quit attitude in a team that easily could have rolled over once again.
"Banister always made us believe (making the playoffs) could happen, so we never thought it wouldn't," veteran Prince Fielder told T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com.
Now the Rangers are set to begin a division series matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays, looking like a formidable playoff team.
NL Rookie of the Year: 3B Kris Bryant
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Full Ballot Prediction
| 1. Kris Bryant, CHC | .275 BA, .858 OPS, 26 HR, 99 RBI, 87 R, 6.0 WAR |
| 2. Noah Syndergaard, NYM | 9-7, 3.24 ERA, 1.047 WHIP, 166 K, 150.0 IP, 2.1 WAR |
| 3. Matt Duffy, SF | .295 BA, .762 OPS, 12 HR, 77 RBI, 77 R, 4.9 WAR |
Winner Overview
Entering the All-Star break, the NL Rookie of the Year race was shaping up to be a shootout between Kris Bryant and Joc Pederson, with both players earning a spot on the All-Star team.
However, things got significantly more clouded when Pederson fell off dramatically in the second half and Bryant battled through a .168/.270/.368 line in July.
That opened things up for guys such as Randal Grichuk, Jung-ho Kang, Matt Duffy and Noah Syndergaard as potential candidates. But in the end, Bryant wound up as the clear top dog among NL rookies.
After his rough July, the 23-year-old rebounded nicely to hit .323/.400/.567 with 28 extra-base hits in 58 games the rest of the way.
In the process, he set the Chicago Cubs' franchise rookie record for home runs (26) and RBI (99), surpassing Hall of Famer Billy Williams in both categories.
He also swiped 13 bases in 17 tries, was better than expected defensively at third base (3 DRS, 5.4 UZR/150) and even showed some surprising versatility by also playing all three outfield positions and first base.
"I think there’s a lot of good rookies out there, especially on this team, too," Bryant told Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago. "But I definitely think my first year has been a pretty good one and I’ve had a lot of fun with it. So if I’m fortunate enough to get that award, then it would be pretty cool."
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AL Rookie of the Year: SS Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
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Full Ballot Prediction
| 1. Francisco Lindor, CLE | .313 BA, .835 OPS, 12 HR, 51 RBI, 50 R, 4.6 WAR |
| 2. Carlos Correa, HOU | .279 BA, .857 OPS, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 52 R, 4.1 WAR |
| 3. Miguel Sano, MIN | .269 BA, .916 OPS, 18 HR, 52 RBI, 46 R, 2.1 WAR |
Winner Overview
It's easy to compare the stats of Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor this season, as both standout rookies played in 99 games and were separated by just six plate appearances.
However, it's by no means easy to pick a winner between the two impressive young shortstops for AL Rookie of the Year honors.
The 21-year-old Correa stepped in and quickly became a key piece of the Houston Astros offense, spending most of the season hitting in the No. 3 spot in the order and setting a franchise record for home runs by a shortstop with 22.
Meanwhile, Lindor far exceeded expectations from an offensive standpoint after hitting .279/.354/.384 in parts of five minor league seasons with just 21 home runs in 1,648 at-bats.
He got off to a slow start, but caught fire in the second half with a .345/.386/.544 line to help the Cleveland Indians claw their way back into the wild-card picture.
However, it's the defensive side of the ball where Lindor really separates himself.
The 21-year-old piled up 10 DRS and an 18.9 UZR/150 to rank as one of the best defensive shortstops in the league, while Correa graded out below average with zero DRS and a minus-13.7 UZR/150.
Both players look like future stars, but Lindor gets the nod here for AL Rookie of the Year.
NL Cy Young: SP Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
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Full Ballot Prediction
| 1. Jake Arrieta, CHC | 22-6, 1.77 ERA, 0.865 WHIP, 236 K, 229.0 IP, 8.6 WAR |
| 2. Zack Greinke, LAD | 19-3, 1.66 ERA, 0.844 WHIP, 200 K, 222.2 IP, 9.3 WAR |
| 3. Clayton Kershaw, LAD | 16-7, 2.13 ERA, 0.881 WHIP, 301 K, 232.2 IP, 7.5 WAR |
| 4. Jacob deGrom, NYM | 14-8, 2.54 ERA, 0.979 WHIP, 205 K, 191.0 IP, 4.7 WAR |
| 5. Gerrit Cole, PIT | 19-8, 2.60 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 202 K, 208.0 IP, 4.5 WAR |
Winner Overview
Just how good have Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke been this season?
Clayton Kershaw posted a 2.13 ERA and became the first pitcher to record 300 strikeouts in a season since 2002, and chances are he won't see a single first-place vote for the NL Cy Young.
It didn't always look like a two-horse race, though, as Greinke was in a league of his own heading into the All-Star break.
The 31-year-old was 8-2 with a 1.39 ERA in the first half, earning the start for the National League side.
Arrieta had been solid in his own right, going 10-5 with a 2.66 ERA to rank as one of the bigger All-Star Game snubs, but Greinke was clearly on another level.
Then things got weird.
Perhaps inspired by his All-Star snub, or perhaps just because he's a really good pitcher with ridiculous stuff, Arrieta proceeded to go 12-1 with an MLB-record 0.75 ERA in 15 starts after the All-Star break.
"I know the other guys are really good and I know I'm his manager, but I've never seen anything else like that and I know nobody else has, either," manager Joe Maddon told reporters, via CSN Chicago.
To his credit, Greinke was nearly as good in the second half, going 11-1 with a 1.99 ERA in his 14 second-half starts to give him a slim edge in both ERA (1.66 to 1.77) and WHIP (0.844 to 0.865).
It's not a big enough edge to offset how historically good Arrieta was in the second half, though, as he looks to become the first Cubs pitcher to win the Cy Young since Greg Maddux in 1992.
AL Cy Young: SP Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
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Full Ballot Prediction
| 1. Dallas Keuchel, HOU | 20-8, 2.48 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, 216 K, 232.0 IP, 7.2 WAR |
| 2. David Price, DET/TOR | 18-5, 2.45 ERA, 1.076 WHIP, 225 K, 220.1 IP, 5.9 WAR |
| 3. Sonny Gray, OAK | 14-7, 2.73 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 169 K, 208.0 IP, 5.8 WAR |
| 4. Chris Archer, TB | 12-13, 3.23 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 252 K, 212.0 IP, 4.3 WAR |
| 5. Dellin Betances, NYY | 28 HLD, 1.50 ERA, 1.012 WHIP, 131 K, 84.0 IP, 3.8 WAR |
Winner Overview
Oakland ace Sonny Gray looked like the AL Cy Young front-runner heading into the final month of the season, but a 6.84 ERA over his final five starts inflated his ERA from 2.13 to 2.73, which dropped him to a distant third as a result.
That leaves Dallas Keuchel and David Price as the leading candidates, and both pitchers have a compelling case to take home the award.
Keuchel led the AL in wins (20), WHIP (1.017), innings pitched (232.0) and shutouts (two), as he took his game to an elite level on the heels of his surprising breakout performance in 2014.
While he ranked fifth in the AL with 216 strikeouts, Keuchel relied heavily on his ability to keep the ball on the ground, as his 61.7 percent ground-ball rate was tops in the American League, according to FanGraphs.
Meanwhile, Price paced the AL in ERA (2.45) and proved to be a game-changing addition to the Toronto Blue Jays as he went 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.009 WHIP in 11 starts after being acquired at the deadline.
It's close between the two, but we'll give the slightest of edges to Keuchel, and for the record, so does Price.
He tweeted that Keuchel "gets my vote...dominated all year long" in response to MLB.com asking the general public "Who is your choice for AL Cy Young?" earlier this month.
NL MVP: RF Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
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Full Ballot Prediction
| 1. Bryce Harper, WAS | .330 BA, 1.109 OPS, 42 HR, 99 RBI, 118 R, 9.9 WAR |
| 2. Anthony Rizzo, CHC | .278 BA, .899 OPS, 31 HR, 101 RBI, 94 R, 6.3 WAR |
| 3. Andrew McCutchen, PIT | .292 BA, .889 OPS, 23 HR, 96 RBI, 91 R, 4.8 WAR |
| 4. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI | .321 BA, 1.005 OPS, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 103 R, 8.8 WAR |
| 5. Jake Arrieta, CHC | 22-6, 1.77 ERA, 0.865 WHIP, 236 K, 229.0 IP, 8.6 WAR |
| 6. Zack Greinke, LAD | 19-3, 1.66 ERA, 0.844 WHIP, 200 K, 222.2 IP, 9.3 WAR |
| 7. Yoenis Cespedes, NYM (AL stats excluded) | .287 BA, .942 OPS, 17 HR, 44 RBI, 39 R, 2.3 WAR |
| 8. Clayton Kershaw, LAD | 16-7, 2.13 ERA, 0.881 WHIP, 301 K, 232.2 IP, 7.5 WAR |
| 9. Nolan Arenado, COL | .287 BA. .898 OPS, 42 HR, 130 RBI, 97 R, 5.7 WAR |
| 10. Joey Votto, CIN | .314 BA, 1.000 OPS, 29 HR, 80 RBI, 95 R, 7.6 WAR |
Winner Overview
Despite a disappointing season from a Washington Nationals team that many picked to win it all in 2015, Bryce Harper should run away with NL MVP honors.
That's the same Bryce Harper who received 41 percent of the vote for the title of "most overrated player in MLB" in ESPN's preseason player poll.
To be fair, Harper had dealt with injuries the past two seasons and struggled to live up to the hype that came with appearing on the cover of Sports Illustrated in high school and reaching the majors at 19.
However, as a 22-year-old, he finally turned his raw tools into on-field production and managed to stay healthy in the process, putting together one of the best all-around offensive seasons in recent memory.
OPS+ is perhaps the best stat we have for comparing one season's worth of offensive production to another in a different era.
Harper checked in with a 195 OPS+ this season, good for the 71st-highest mark in the history of the game, with 28 of the seasons above him belonging to Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Ted Williams and Ty Cobb.
A more patient approach at the plate may have been the biggest difference for Harper, as his walk rate improved from 9.6 to 19.0 percent, and he rarely missed mistakes when pitchers made them.
The argument for Yoenis Cespedes is an interesting one, and it's tough to ignore how significant his impact was on the Mets. With just 57 games played in the National League, though, it's hard to call him the NL MVP.
AL MVP: 3B Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays
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Full Ballot Prediction
| 1. Josh Donaldson, TOR | .297 BA, .939 OPS, 41 HR, 123 RBI, 122 R, 8.8 WAR |
| 2. Mike Trout, LAA | .299 BA, .991 OPS, 41 HR, 90 RBI, 104 R, 9.4 WAR |
| 3. Lorenzo Cain, KC | .307 BA, .838 OPS, 16 HR, 72 RBI, 101 R, 7.2 WAR |
| 4. Dallas Keuchel, HOU | 20-8, 2.48 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, 216 K, 232.0 IP, 7.2 WAR |
| 5. David Price, DET/TOR | 18-5, 2.45 ERA, 1.076 WHIP, 225 K, 220.1 IP, 5.9 WAR |
| 6. Adrian Beltre, TEX | .287 BA, .788 OPS, 18 HR, 83 RBI, 83 R, 5.8 WAR |
| 7. Nelson Cruz, SEA | .302 BA, .936 OPS, 44 HR, 93 RBI, 90 R, 5.2 WAR |
| 8. Jose Bautista, TOR | .250 BA, .913 OPS, 40 HR, 114 RBI, 108 R, 5.1 WAR |
| 9. Manny Machado, BAL | .286 BA, .861 OPS, 35 HR, 86 RBI, 102 R, 7.1 WAR |
| 10. Jose Altuve, HOU | .313 BA, .812 OPS, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 86 R, 4.5 WAR |
Winner Overview
Despite his back-to-back top-10 finishes in AL MVP voting and four remaining years of team control, the Oakland Athletics put Josh Donaldson on the trade block last offseason, and the Toronto Blue Jays jumped at the chance to acquire him.
The team already had a pair of elite run producers in Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, but the addition of Donaldson alongside them has given the team a juggernaut of an offense that averaged 5.5 runs per game.
When all was said and done, Donaldson led the AL in RBI (123), runs scored (122) and total bases (352) while finishing second in WAR (8.8), third in OPS (.939), third in home runs (41) and fourth in doubles (41).
He's also once again provided a plus glove at the hot corner, posting 11 defensive runs saved and a 9.8 UZR/150, both of which rank fifth among qualified third basemen.
Mike Trout led the league in WAR (9.4) again and was also tops in OPS (.991), and one can make a case for him to repeat as AL MVP.
However, the Angels missed the playoffs after putting up the best record in the AL a year ago, while Donaldson played a key role in helping lead the Blue Jays to their first postseason appearance since 1993.
Advantage Donaldson, as he looks to become the second Blue Jays player ever to win AL MVP honors, with the other being outfielder George Bell in 1987.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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