Week 4 NFL Picks: Tips for Vegas Odds and Over/Under Score Predictions

The 2015 NFL season has already featured some unpredictability and startling results. If you know how the games will flow, however, it doesn't matter which teams win.

After only three weeks of play, there is still a lot of uncertainty for each team. We don't know which quarterbacks can make clutch plays or which defenses can force stops in the closing minutes. Conversely, we should have a general idea of which teams can score at high rates and which opponents have no chance of stopping them.

Week 4 features a number of intriguing over/under bets that can help you out even if you are confused about what to do with the spreads. Here is a look at some of the better picks of the week along with a breakdown of predictions for the full slate of games:

Away	Predicted Score	Home	ATS Pick	O/U
New York Jets	20-21	Miami Dolphins	NYJ(-2)	Under 42
New York Giants	17-13	Buffalo Bills	NYG (+5.5)	Under 46.5
Oakland Raiders	31-20	Chicago Bears	OAK (-3.5)	Over 44.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	16-21	Indianapolis Colts	JAX (+9)	Under 48
Houston Texans	13-27	Atlanta Falcons	ATL (-6)	Under 46.5
Carolina Panthers	27-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB (+3.5)	Over 40
Kansas City Chiefs	17-24	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN (-4.5)	Under 45.5
Philadelphia Eagles	30-20	Washington Redskins	PHI (-3)	Over 43.5
Cleveland Browns	34-31	San Diego Chargers	CLE (+7.5)	Over 45
Minnesota Vikings	10-27	Denver Broncos	DEN (-7)	Under 43
Green Bay Packers	38-17	San Francisco 49ers	GB (-9)	Over 48.5
St. Louis Rams	16-28	Arizona Cardinals	ARI (-7.5)	Over 43
Dallas Cowboys	24-20	New Orleans Saints	DAL (+3)	Under 47.5
Detroit Lions	13-16	Seattle Seahawks	DET (+10)	Under 43

Top Over/Under Picks

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over 40)

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did a good job of limiting the New Orleans Saints offense in their only win of the year, but otherwise, the defense has struggled. The unit allowed 42 points to rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans in Week 1 and allowed Alfred Blue to run wild for 139 yards in a Week 3 loss to the Houston Texans.

The run defense has been especially embarrassing, ranking 30th in the NFL while allowing 138 yards on the ground per game. ESPN's Trey Wingo broke down another poor statistic:

This seems like a good chance for Cam Newton to put together a huge day through the air and on the ground. The Carolina Panthers quarterback has been criticized in the past, but Gil Brandt of NFL.com argued that Newton deserves MVP consideration after the team's 3-0 start:

Even without any notable weapons around him, Newton can rack up plenty of yards and get into the end zone at a high rate.

Although some will expect it to be tough for the Buccaneers to score on Carolina, that's not necessarily true. The Panthers do have the No. 2 scoring defense in the NFL at the moment, but they have faced Blake Bortles, Ryan Mallett and Luke McCown at quarterback. Jameis Winston isn't an All-Pro yet, either, but he could have a strong game by spreading the ball around to his targets and limiting mistakes.

The Buccaneers have legitimate weapons in the passing game, pairing a healthy Mike Evans with Vincent Jackson. With the Panthers still missing Luke Kuechly in the middle of the defense, Tampa Bay should be able to score enough to help clear the over.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (Over 48.5)

This total might come from the Packers alone.

After exciting fans with a 20-3 win in Week 1, the San Francisco 49ers have been embarrassing on both sides of the ball, but especially defensively. The team allowed 90 points in its last two games combined, and while some of those scores came from Colin Kaepernick mistakes, a lot of San Francisco's struggles were due to the team's inability to make any plays in the defensive secondary.

Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger had plenty of time in the pocket (just one sack in the two games) and combined for 680 passing yards and five touchdowns. Things will get harder in Week 4, when that same defense will have to try to stop Aaron Rodgers.

Through three games, Rodgers has been almost flawless, throwing 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions to help him put up a league-leading 135.4 quarterback rating. It doesn't matter how many of his receivers go down—the elite quarterback will continue to produce at a high level.

Head coach Mike McCarthy is enjoying watching Rodgers, per ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky:

The Packers scored 27 points against a great Seattle Seahawks defense and then tore apart a solid Kansas City Chiefs unit for 38 points in a Week 3 win. Rodgers can probably score as many points as he wants against the 49ers on Sunday.

One consolation for San Francisco is the quality matchup in the ground game. The Packers rank dead last in the NFL against the run, allowing five yards per carry, which could give Carlos Hyde a chance for some big plays. It might not be enough to keep up with the Packers, but it will be enough to ensure a high-scoring battle.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (Under 43)

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

The Detroit Lions offense has playmakers, but this has not been a good year for the team on that side of the ball. The squad has scored 28 points in the last two games combined and on the year ranks 27th in the NFL in total yards per game.

With a former 5,000-yard passer in Matthew Stafford, an elite receiving tandem in Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate and high draft picks in Eric Ebron (No. 10 overall in 2014) and Ameer Abdullah (No. 54 overall in 2015), this is unacceptable.

There seems to be questionable play-calling at times, especially with a pass-heavy attack, but head coach Jim Caldwell doesn't believe that's the problem, per Tori Petry of DetroitLions.com:

In any case, it will be difficult to turn things around in a road game against the Seahawks. Seattle is coming off a shutout against the Chicago Bears, and while a lot of that was thanks to the play of Jimmy Clausen, the return of Kam Chancellor proved to be a major difference for the squad. Once again, this is arguably the most feared defense in the NFL, and scoring points will be almost impossible for the Lions at CenturyLink Field.

Of course, not everything has gone well for Seattle this season. There are serious concerns about the offense, stemming from the poor play of the offensive line. Taking away defensive and special teams scores, Russell Wilson has engineered only four touchdowns in three games.

Detroit's defense hasn't been great, but if it can create some pressure up front, it should be able to limit the Seahawks attack in a low-scoring affair.

Note: All spread info is courtesy of Odds Shark. Over/under info is courtesy of Vegas Insider.

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