NFL Week 4 Picks: Game Odds, Lines and Over-Under Predictions

Week 3 of the 2015 NFL season is in the books, and we're moving on to Week 4. A couple of big matchups this week should make for some intriguing betting options.

On the docket, we've got a game in London, a prime-time game with two backup quarterbacks slated to take the field for their respective teams and a game between two teams trending in almost completely opposite directions—those being the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals.

Mixed in between those three contests are a slew of other games all ripe for the picking.

In the chart below, you'll find my picks—with the spread—for each game, as well as picks for the over/under. After that, be sure to read on for justifications for a few of those games, which just so happen to be the ones I mentioned at the top of this article.

Week 4 Odds

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	The Pick	o/u	The Pick
Baltimore Ravens	PITTSBURGH STEELERS	2.5	Ravens	43.5	Over
New York Jets	Miami Dolphins	Pick	Jets	41.5	Under
ATLANTA FALCONS	Houston Texans	7	Texans	47	Under
BUFFALO BILLS	New York Giants	5.5	Buffalo	46.5	Under
Oakland Raiders	CHICAGO BEARS	3	Raiders	44.5	Under
CINCINNATI BENGALS	Kansas City Chiefs	3.5	Bengals	44	Under
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	Jacksonville Jaguars	10	Jaguars	48	Under
Carolina Panthers	TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS	3	Panthers	40	Over
Philadelphia Eagles	WASHINGTON REDSKINS	3	Redskins	47	Under
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS	Cleveland Browns	9	Browns	45	Under
DENVER BRONCOS	Minnesota Vikings	4	Broncos	44	Over
Green Bay Packers	SAN FRANCISCO 49ers	9.5	Packers	48	Under
ARIZONA CARDINALS	St. Louis Rams	6	Cardinals	42.5	Over
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	Dallas Cowboys	7	Cowboys	N/A	N/A
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	Detroit Lions	9.5	Seahawks	43	Over

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

Though it's technically a Dolphins home game, when these two teams square off on Sunday, it'll take place at Wembley Stadium in London, England. The location doesn't matter though, as I'd advise picking the Jets over the Dolphins even if they played this game on Mars.

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

The Dolphins have issues on offense, and, through the first three games of the season, rank 10th in the AFC in yards per game. This problem is due in large part to their lack of a rushing game, where their 72.7 yards per game on the ground rank as the second-worst in the AFC.

Couple that inability to move the football with the third-worst third-down-conversion rate in the conference (35 percent), and you have an offense that is going to struggle mightily against the Jets defense, which ranks as the second-best in the conference in terms of total defense (298.3 yards/game) and first in the NFL in points allowed per game (13.7).

The Jets offense is flawed too, but I'll take the stout defense and better running back play.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals

After three weeks, the Bengals have set themselves apart from nearly everyone in the league as one of the most complete teams in the NFL.

Sitting at 3-0, the Bengals look the part of an early-season Super Bowl threat, and, well, the Chiefs don't. When the Chiefs squared off against the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football last week, the offense looked like a complete Dumpster fire.

Don't expect any of that to change for either team in Week 4.

The Bengals get a dream matchup with the Chiefs, whose reluctance to throw the ball down the field keeps rearing its ugly head. Alex Smith has looked timid and, quite frankly, with throws like the one in the video below, awful.

Meanwhile, their receiving corps—aside from Jeremy Maclin—is lackluster at best, and the duo of Dre Kirkpatrick and Adam Jones should keep them in check for most of the game.

The Bengals will have to contend with Jamaal Charles, though. Fortunately for them, and anyone looking for the Bengals to hold up a four-point victory, the team's defense should be able to keep him in check, as they've allowed just 76.7 yards per game on the ground.

With the Chiefs posing little threat through the air, getting the ground game going will be that much more difficult.

Look for the Bengals to stifle the Chiefs offense, while racking up big yardage, and points, against a team that, to this point, ranks as the fifth-worst among AFC teams in total defense.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints

We'll wrap things up here with a prime-time game, a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Cowboys and Saints.

When the Cowboys take on the Saints this week, it's possible that neither team will have their starting quarterback available.

With the Cowboys, this is a certainty, as it'll be a while before Tony Romo's broken clavicle is healthy enough for him to resume playing. With Drew Brees, it's not quite as simple.

According to ESPN's Ed Werder, Brees is expected to take some snaps in practice today:

Whether the banged-up, 36-year-old quarterback plays or not is a whole different story, though.

Assuming he does play, then the Saints are a solid pick to lay the seven points and beat up on a Cowboys team that does not do well when pressure gets to the QB. Last week, Brandon Weeden made some suspect decisions under a steady pass rush, including whatever you want to call this mess:

If Brees plays, then give the points and roll with New Orleans as they look to take advantage of a banged-up Cowboys team.

That said, if Brees isn't ready to go then things become more complicated, and you have a backup in Luke McCown who, although he looked mostly competent against the Atlanta Falcons, is likely not capable of delivering a seven-plus-point victory.

In a battle of one backup versus another, I'll take the seven points, and you should too.

All stats courtesy of NFL.com unless otherwise noted.

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