MLB Free Agents 2015-16: B/R's Initial Top 25 Big Board
With the final weekend of MLB's regular season upon us and the postseason just around the corner, fans around the league are gearing up for what promises to be another exciting month of playoff baseball.
That being said, things tend to move quickly once the World Series wraps up and the offseason officially begins, so it's never too early to take a look ahead at the upcoming crop of free agents.
What follows will be our initial top 25 big board of the best available free agents around the league this coming winter.
Players are ranked on both the immediate impact they are expected to make upon signing and the long-term impact they are expected to have on the team.
As a result, things like age, past track record and regression indicators had to be taken into account as opposed to simply looking at the surface numbers a player has produced here in 2015.
For position players, offensive abilities carried the most weight, as is generally the case on the free-agent market, but defense was also a factor, and you will see that displayed in defensive runs saved (DRS) and ultimate zone rate per 150 games (UZR/150).
With pitchers, ace-caliber arms in their prime obviously took the top spots, but after that the value of a mid-level pitcher with age on his side (someone like Mike Leake) had to be weighed against a veteran who may be better in the short term but less useful long-term (someone like John Lackey).
Not many relievers made the grade, as they are simply too volatile on a year-in and year-out basis to justify committing big money. There were three bullpen arms that made the cut, though, due in large part to their consistency.
With that, I give you Bleacher Report's initial top 25 big board of upcoming MLB free agents.
Other Notable Free Agents
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Position Players
- C Alex Avila
- SS Asdrubal Cabrera
- OF Rajai Davis
- OF Franklin Gutierrez
- OF Torii Hunter
- OF Austin Jackson
- 2B Howie Kendrick
- 1B Justin Morneau (option)
- 2B Daniel Murphy
- OF Gerardo Parra
- OF Colby Rasmus
- SS Jimmy Rollins
- 2B Chase Utley
- OF Chris Young
Pitchers
- RP Antonio Bastardo
- RP Blaine Boyer
- SP Mark Buehrle
- SP A.J. Burnett
- SP Bartolo Colon
- RP Neal Cotts
- SP Marco Estrada
- SP J.A. Happ
- SP Ian Kennedy
- SP Mat Latos
- SP Colby Lewis
- SP Tim Lincecum
- RP Mark Lowe
- RP Ryan Madson
- SP Mike Pelfrey
- RP Oliver Perez
- SP Chris Young
Nos. 25-21
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25. SP Jeff Samardzija (Age: 30)
Right about now, Jeff Samardzija is probably wishing he had signed that five-year, $75 million-$80 million extension the Chicago Cubs offered midway through the 2014 season, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
His contract year has been wildly inconsistent, but as he showed in a one-hit shutout of the Detroit Tigers on Sept. 21, he still has front-line stuff when he's right. Someone will be willing to take a chance on him, and he could prove to be a bargain.
24. RP Tyler Clippard (Age: 30)
| 68 | 4-4 | 8 | 19/25 | 2.96 | 1.143 | 31 | 62 | 70.0 | 1.2 |
Since his first full season in the majors in 2009, Tyler Clippard has been one of the most reliable setup relievers in all of baseball. Over that span he's made 480 appearances and pitched to a 2.68 ERA, 1.045 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 with an 11.3 WAR that ranks sixth among all relievers.
The two-time All-Star is best suited pitching the eighth inning, but he has also seen time in the closer's role with a 32-save season in 2012 and 17 saves with the Oakland Athletics this year prior to being traded.
23. C Matt Wieters (Age: 29)
A three-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner, Matt Wieters was one of the best all-around catchers in baseball prior to missing the bulk of last season with an arm injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery.
Wieters posted a .749 OPS and averaged 22 home runs and 77 RBI from 2011 to 2013, and with a full offseason of rest and a normal preseason, he could return to that level of production next year. He's a risky sign, but it's a risk that could come with significant reward.
22. RP Joakim Soria (Age: 31)
| 70 | 3-1 | 10 | 24/30 | 2.60 | 1.096 | 19 | 60 | 65.2 | 1.6 |
After saving 160 games in five seasons with the Kansas City Royals, Joakim Soria missed the entire 2012 season following Tommy John surgery. He's bounced around a bit since but remains a solid late-inning arm with a terrific track record.
He's currently serving as a setup man for the Pittsburgh Pirates but could find his way back into a closer job this offseason. He was 23-of-26 on save chances with the Detroit Tigers this season before being traded at the deadline.
21. SP Brett Anderson (Age: 27)
The Los Angeles Dodgers took a chance on the oft-injured Brett Anderson last offseason with a one-year, $10 million contract that has proved to be money well spent.
Anderson surpassed 150 innings this year for the first time since his rookie season back in 2009, and he's succeeded on the strength of his ability to keep the ball on the ground. His 66.3 percent ground-ball rate is tops among all qualified starters, and it would appear he's earned himself a multiyear deal at the very least.
Nos. 20-16
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20. RP Darren O'Day (Age: 32)
| 67 | 6-2 | 17 | 6/11 | 1.54 | 0.948 | 14 | 81 | 64.1 | 2.8 |
Since the start of the 2012 season, only Craig Kimbrel (10.3) and Aroldis Chapman (10.0) have a better WAR among relievers than the 9.6 mark put up by sidewinding setup man Darren O'Day.
He's been particularly good the past two seasons, posting a 1.62 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in 135 games, and he was rewarded with a well-deserved trip to the All-Star Game this season as a result. O'Day has never served as a closer, so his earning potential is somewhat limited, but expect him to be as coveted as any reliever on the market.
19. SP Wei-Yin Chen (Age: 30)
The Baltimore Orioles took a chance when they signed Wei-Yin Chen to a four-year, $15.47 million deal out of the Korea Baseball Organization prior to the 2012 season, but he has been a reliable middle-of-the-rotation starter in his four years with the team.
He was 16-6 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.228 WHIP last season, and he's been even better from a peripheral standpoint this season. There's a chance the Orioles could extend him a qualifying offer, but if not he'll be one of the more attractive mid-level arms on the market and one of the few viable lefty options.
18. SP Hisashi Iwakuma (Age: 34)
Newly minted Seattle Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto recently told Jim Bowden of ESPN.com that the team will make re-signing Hisashi Iwakuma a priority this offseason, so he may not be on the open market for long this winter.
Iwakuma has had his ups and downs since finishing third in AL Cy Young voting in 2013, including dealing with some injuries, but he's been healthy and productive in the second half this season. He's gone 8-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 0.996 WHIP in 14 starts since the break.
17. CF Denard Span (Age: 31)
A quick look at the Washington Nationals' record with Denard Span in the lineup this year (36-25, .590), compared to their record without him (45-53, .459), gives a good indication of the type of impact he can make out of the leadoff spot.
Span hit .302 and led the NL with 184 hits last season, but he's played in just 61 games this year while dealing with a hip injury that eventually required surgery in August. The center field market is thin as usual, which should help boost his stock.
16. 2B Ben Zobrist (Age: 34)
There was no shortage of teams interested in the versatile Ben Zobrist at the trade deadline, and he should find a similarly deep pool of suitors on the free-agent market this coming winter.
After struggling early on and then undergoing left knee surgery for a torn meniscus, Zobrist returned on May 26. He's been his usual productive self since getting healthy, hitting .282/.369/.460 in 404 at-bats and stepping in for the Royals in place of an injured Alex Gordon.
Nos. 15-11
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15. SP Yovani Gallardo (Age: 29)
Yovani Gallardo made five consecutive Opening Day starts for the Milwaukee Brewers before being traded to the Texas Rangers in the offseason, and he wound up being a key arm for Texas with so many other starters missing time to injury.
The peripheral numbers aren't great with a 4.01 FIP and 1.416 WHIP, and his strikeout rate has dropped each of the past four seasons to a career-low 5.9 K/9 this year, but he's still in the prime of his career. If nothing else he's been a durable workhorse, throwing at least 180 innings in each of the past seven seasons.
14. CF Dexter Fowler (Age: 29)
Looking for a legitimate on-base threat and an everyday center fielder, the Chicago Cubs killed two birds with one stone when they acquired Dexter Fowler in an offseason trade with the Houston Astros.
He's done exactly what the team hoped he would with a solid .343 on-base percentage, helping him become the first Cubs player since Mark DeRosa (103 in 2008) to score 100 runs. He's also added some power, setting new career highs with 17 home runs and 242 total bases.
13. SP John Lackey (Age: 36)
Thanks to a clause in his contract triggered as a result of his missing the 2012 season with Tommy John surgery, John Lackey is playing for just $500,000 this season. The question now is, how many more years does he want to pitch, and how big of a raise will he get?
Adam Wainwright is still the ace when healthy, while Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez represent the future of the St. Louis Cardinals rotation, but there's little question Lackey has been the team's best pitcher here in 2015. His 2.69 ERA is sixth in the NL, and his 5.9 WAR is good for fifth among NL pitchers.
12. SP Mike Leake (Age: 27)
Mike Leake saved his best for last this season, throwing a two-hit shutout against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday in his final start of the year.
While he has never put up eye-popping numbers, Leake has been a reliable and durable No. 3 starter-type since first breaking into the league back in 2010. The fact that he's still just 27 years old also makes him a significantly more attractive target for a multiyear deal.
11. SP Scott Kazmir (Age: 31)
Last time Scott Kazmir hit the free-agent market, he was coming off a surprise bounce-back season with the Cleveland Indians and wound up signing a two-year, $22 million deal with the Oakland Athletics.
After posting a 2.38 ERA in 18 starts with the A's, he's been something of a disappointment since joining the Houston Astros at the deadline, going 2-6 with a 4.17 ERA in 13 starts. He'll be the best left-hander on the market not named David Price, though, and should be able to get more money than he did last time around.
10. SS Ian Desmond (Age: 30)
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2015 Stats
Overview
After three consecutive 20-20 seasons in which he hit .275/.326/.462 and compiled a combined 10.9 WAR, Ian Desmond has suffered through a down season at the worst possible time.
In hindsight, he probably should have signed that extension with the Washington Nationals when he had the chance.
According to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, Desmond turned down a seven-year, $107 million extension offer prior to the start of the 2014 season, and it's now hard to imagine him getting anywhere near that in both years and dollars.
That said, there are a few things working in his favor.
First off, he's turned things around in the second half with a .268/.336/.457 line that includes 10 doubles, 12 home runs and 38 RBI.
More importantly, though, he's by far the best option on the market at the shortstop position. Asdrubal Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins and Stephen Drew make up the best of the rest, so for any team looking to upgrade at shortstop he's by far the best choice.
9. 1B Chris Davis (Age: 29)
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2015 Stats
Overview
No one really knew what to expect from Chris Davis heading into the 2015 season.
The slugger exploded for a huge offensive season in 2013, posting a 1.004 OPS and leading the AL in home runs (53) and RBI (138) on his way to a third-place finish in AL MVP voting.
However, he followed that up with a significant dip in production last season, as his OPS dropped 300 points to .704 and he hit just .196 with a 33.0 percent strikeout rate.
The cherry on top of that disappointing season was a 25-game suspension for a positive Adderall test without an exemption from the league, as his season abruptly ended on Sept. 12.
Heading into a contract year, Davis had a lot of work to do rebuilding his value, and he's done that and then some, as he leads the AL in home runs (45) and ranks third in RBI (112).
He's been particularly great since the All-Star break, hitting .285/.398/.645 with 26 home runs and 60 RBI in 71 games, and all of that could add up to a nine-figure deal this winter.
8. LF Alex Gordon (Age: 31)
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2015 Stats
Overview
Technically Alex Gordon is not a free agent just yet, as he has a $14 million player option for next year. However, the 31-year-old will almost certainly decline that in favor of pursuing a longer and more lucrative deal.
While they are very different players, Gordon should be able to point to the seven-year, $130 million deal Shin-Soo Choo signed with the Texas Rangers as a potential starting point in negotiations this coming offseason.
The question is, can the Kansas City Royals afford to give him a nine-figure deal with potential extensions for guys like Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain also on the to-do list?
Gordon was the No. 2 pick in the 2005 draft by the Royals, and after looking like a flop early in his career as a third baseman, everything changed when he made the full-time move to left field in 2011.
Since the start of that season, he's hit .281/.358/.450 and posted a 26.7 WAR that ranks eighth among all position players during that span.
Much of that value stems from his phenomenal defense in left field, where he's piled up a whopping 87 defensive runs saved the past four years while winning the Gold Glove each season.
A groin injury has limited Gordon to 102 games this season, as he was sidelined from July 8 until Sept. 1, but that shouldn't stop him from cashing in this winter.
7. SP Johnny Cueto (Age: 29)
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2015 Stats
Overview
It's too bad Johnny Cueto didn't reach free agency last offseason.
Cueto was 20-9 with a 2.25 ERA, 0.960 WHIP and 242 strikeouts in 243.2 innings in 2014, finishing second in Cy Young voting to eventual NL MVP Clayton Kershaw.
The right-hander appeared to be on his way to another terrific season when he was 9-7 with a 2.46 ERA, 0.934 WHIP and 141 strikeouts in 160.2 innings in 19 starts with the Cincinnati Reds and four starts with the Kansas City Royals after being moved at the deadline.
However, he's run into a rough patch at the worst possible time in Kansas City, going 1-6 with a 6.99 ERA and a 1.727 WHIP in his last eight starts.
Not only does that raise major question marks for a Royals team relying on him to anchor their rotation in the postseason, but it could be enough for a team to think twice before investing north of $100 million on Cueto this offseason.
All of that said, he's still a front-line arm capable of being one of the best pitchers in baseball when everything is clicking, and he's still in the prime of his career.
6. SP Jordan Zimmermann (Age: 29)
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2015 Stats
Overview
Jordan Zimmermann has flown under the radar a bit during his time with the Washington Nationals, but a quick look at the numbers shows he's been the team's best starter for a number of years now.
From 2012 to 2014, Zimmermann went 45-22 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.109 WHIP, and he averaged 203 innings of work per season.
He finished seventh in Cy Young voting in 2013 and improved on that with a fifth-place finish last year, when he capped off the regular season with a no-hitter and then allowed just one run in 8.2 innings of work in his lone postseason start.
While he dealt with some arm issues early in his career and has already undergone Tommy John surgery, Zimmermann has made at least 32 starts in each of the past four seasons, so there are no real health concerns at this point.
After spending big on Max Scherzer last winter, and with Stephen Strasburg headed for free agency after the 2016 season, the Nationals may not be willing to pay Zimmermann with a potential replacement in top prospect Lucas Giolito waiting in the wings.
He'll significantly improve someone's rotation, though, and while he's a notch below the two elite arms on the market, there's no question he's an ace-caliber starter.
5. LF Justin Upton (Age: 28)
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2015 Stats
Overview
It seems like Justin Upton has been in the major leagues forever, as the former No. 1 overall pick debuted with the Arizona Diamondbacks back in 2007 at the age of 19 and then took over as an everyday player the following season.
While he's never quite reached superstar status, he has established himself as a consistent power threat and a good run producer with solid on-base skills. He strikes out a lot and doesn't hit for the best average, but a career .825 OPS speaks for itself.
Strangely enough, he's actually hit significantly better at spacious Petco Park (.277/.360/.506, 15 HR) than on the road (.225/.312/.402, 11 HR) in what was his first season with the San Diego Padres.
The team's decision not to trade him at the deadline led to more than a few heads being scratched, but he's a lock for a qualifying offer, and the team will at least walk away with a draft pick.
On top of solid power numbers once again, Upton has added the running game back to his repertoire with 19 steals after swiping just 16 bases the past two seasons combined.
He's also graded out as an above-average defender in left field after playing primarily right field with the Diamondbacks and Braves, so that may wind up being his long-term spot going forward.
Right-handed power hitters in the prime of their careers are in short supply, especially on the free-agent market, so expect Upton to get big money this winter.
4. RF Jason Heyward (Age: 26)
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2015 Stats
Overview
Just how valuable is elite-level corner outfield defense?
We'll soon find out when Jason Heyward hits the free-agent market for the first time in his career, as he's not your prototypical star right fielder in more ways than one, but he has been among the most valuable players in the league in recent years.
At 6'5", 245 pounds and with a smooth left-handed swing, Heyward looks like someone who should be a perennial 30-homer threat in the middle of the lineup.
That's simply not been the case, though, as he's averaged 16 home runs and 59 RBI per year in his six big league seasons and spent most of his time serving as a table-setter rather than a run producer.
However, that hasn't stopped him from ranking ninth among all position players with a 30.9 WAR dating back to his rookie campaign in 2010.
That value has come from his on-base skills (.353 career OBP), speed on the bases (three 20-steal seasons) and his phenomenal defense.
Since his rookie year, Heyward leads all of baseball with 119 defensive runs saved. The next closest player is Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons (113), and the next closest outfielder is Alex Gordon (96).
Add the fact that he is still only 26 years old, meaning a team can offer a long-term deal and be paying primarily for prime seasons, and Heyward could wind up with a contract north of $200 million when all is said and done.
3. LF Yoenis Cespedes (Age: 29)
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2015 Stats
Overview
Yoenis Cespedes probably won't get as many years or as much overall money as Jason Heyward, but in terms of average annual value there's a good chance he's the highest-paid position player this offseason.
Just how big of an impact has Cespedes made on the New York Mets since being acquired at the deadline?
A big enough one that it has led to some legitimate conversations whether a player who has played roughly two months in the National League is deserving of NL MVP honors.
He's not going to knock Bryce Harper out of the top spot for that award, but there is a legitimate case to be made that Cespedes is as critical to his team's success as anyone in baseball this year.
Prior to trading for the slugger, the Mets had a 53-50 record, and their offense was bordering on anemic at 3.54 runs per game.
Since the trade, they've gone 36-20 and averaged 5.64 runs per game, gaining nine games on the Washington Nationals in the standings and securing their first division title since 2006.
Expect the Mets to make every effort to bring him back, even with Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo both ready to step into everyday roles, but his price has undoubtedly skyrocketed with a huge season here in 2015.
2. SP David Price (Age: 30)
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2015 Stats
Overview
The Toronto Blue Jays had the best offense in baseball leading up to the trade deadline—no one would have argued that—but their inconsistent starting pitching made it hard to peg them as serious title contenders.
Enter David Price.
The 6'6" left-hander has given the Jays the front-line arm they have been lacking for years, and he's been everything they could have hoped for at this point with a 9-1 record, 2.30 ERA and 1.009 WHIP in 11 starts.
That's been enough to lower his ERA to an AL-best 2.45 on the year, and with Oakland Athletics ace Sonny Gray falling off down the stretch, it now appears to be a two-horse race for AL Cy Young honors between Price and Dallas Keuchel of the Houston Astros.
While the return of Marcus Stroman has given the Blue Jays a second elite arm to lean on once the postseason arrives, Price is going to need to continue to dominate if the team is going to make a run at a World Series title.
If anyone is going to be this year's version of Madison Bumgarner, it may very well be Price pitching some huge games for the Blue Jays.
Max Scherzer signed a seven-year, $210 million deal last offseason, but Price has a longer track record of success, so don't be surprised if he tops that deal.
1. SP Zack Greinke (Age: 31)
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2015 Stats
Overview
The idea of leaving $77 million over three years on the table may seem absurd, but with Zack Greinke's brilliant season, the decision to opt out and search for another long-term deal is a no-brainer.
Greinke signed a six-year, $147 million deal when he first joined the Dodgers prior to the 2013 season, and he should be able to find a higher average annual value this time around.
Chicago Cubs ace Jake Arrieta has come on historically strong down the stretch, but at this point Greinke is still at the very least a co-front-runner for NL Cy Young honors.
Greinke won the award as a 25-year-old while pitching for the Kansas City Royals in 2009, but six years later he's an entirely different pitcher.
In '09 Greinke struck out 242 hitters at a 9.5 K/9 clip and averaged 93.7 mph on his fastball, which he threw 58.9 percent of the time, according to FanGraphs.
This season, Greinke has fanned 192 hitters at an 8.0 K/9 rate, and his fastball has averaged a career-low 91.7 mph.
It's his changeup—a pitch he threw just 5.9 percent of the time in '09 compared to 18.6 percent this year—that has made all the difference, as it's graded out as the best changeup in baseball this year, per FanGraphs.
The point being, he's turned himself into a pitcher who can be effective into his late 30s because he's no longer as reliant on velocity to overpower hitters. That makes investing big money in him a slightly less risky proposition.
All standard statistics and WAR totals courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, while defensive metrics come via FanGraphs.
