Week 4 NFL Picks: Over-Under Projections, Odds Advice and Line Spreads

Chris Roling@@Chris_RolingFeatured ColumnistSeptember 29, 2015

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) calls a play against the Tennessee Titans in the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 27, 2015, in Nashville, Tenn. The Colts won 35-33. (AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)
Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

It's NFL Week 4 odds time for bettors who want to get out in front of the house.

Week 3 was a stunning success for bettors in most ways, with the Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots and more taking care of business, while obvious underdog bets such as the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens came through.

This week looks just as simple to predict at first glance with several mismatches on the slate. The league seemed to work out its crazy hiccups in Week 2, so it's time for bettors to keep rebuilding the bankroll.

Below, let's help in that endeavor by taking a look at how Las Vegas feels about Week 4.

NFL Week 4 Odds

GameSpreadO/UPredicted Winner
Baltimore at PittsburghBAL -144BAL 28-23
N.Y. Jets vs. Miami (London)NYJ -141.5NYJ 23-20
N.Y. Giants at BuffaloBUF -746.5BUF 30-24
Oakland at ChicagoOAK. -2.544.5OAK 27-20
Jacksonville at IndianapolisIND -1047IND 35-20
Houston at AtlantaATL -746,5ATL 33-23
Carolina at Tampa BayCAR -340CAR 23-20
Kansas City at CincinnatiN/A--CIN 24-17
Philadelphia at WashingtonPHI -347.5PHI 20-17
Cleveland at San DiegoSD -944.5SD 24-23
Minnesota at DenverDEN -743.5DEN 34-24
Green Bay at San FranciscoN/A--GB 36-20
St. Louis at ArizonaARI -742ARI 23-10
Dallas at New OrleansN/A--DAL 17-14
Detroit at SeattleSEA. -1042.5SEA 24-7
Odds via Odds Shark. Author's predictions.
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Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.   

Analyzing Top Early Lines 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-10)

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts aren't the easiest team to trust right now. 

Still, Las Vegas feels this way for good reason.

The Colts dropped their first two games of the season, albeit against tough AFC East competition. It looked like the team would do so again in Tennessee this past weekend before a late score to escape with a two-point victory.

The resiliency on its own should inspire bettors. So should a matchup with Jacksonville—the team that just traveled to New England and received a 51-17 whipping as Tom Brady threw two scores and LeGarrette Blount ran for three.

Luck and Co. might not post a 50-burger, but it's quite difficult to see how Jacksonville will line up and contain all of the offense's weapons. Luck has T.Y. Hilton and the emerging Donte Moncrief with Frank Gore in the backfield.

Jacksonville doesn't have enough offensive firepower or defensive pressure to go on the road and take down Luck. These divisional matchups ended 44-17 and 23-3 in favor of the Colts last year, and there isn't much reason to think things have altered in a significant manner, especially with the Colts showing signs of life.

Prediction: Colts 35, Jaguars 20

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-10)

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Sometimes it's best to stick with the biggest lines of all. 

The bumbling Detroit Lions visiting the Seattle Seahawks would be one of those times. Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and what is supposed to be an elite offense already sit in an 0-3 hole about to get much worse.

Detroit has mustered more than 20 points once in three games. Stafford has thrown five scores and five interceptions, the team has attempted just 51 rushes (six of them scrambles) and the defense sorely misses Ndamukong Suh in the middle.

If it sounds like the worst-case scenario, well, it is. Seattle might only have one win, but a season split with St. Louis isn't so outlandish, nor is a loss in Green Bay. The Seahawks rebounded last weekend with a 26-0 thumping of Chicago, where Seattle only needed five carries from Marshawn Lynch to secure the win.

With the return of Kam Chancellor to the secondary and the offense discovering and implementing new weapons such as Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett (one kick return score), there's little doubt the Seahawks can take care of business against the Lions at home.

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Lions 7

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-7)

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

The Houston Texans sit at 1-2 after finally getting a win thanks to an encounter with Tampa Bay, yet they face a must-win scenario in Atlanta next weekend against the Falcons.

It's a good opportunity for bettors.

There's no guarantee the Texans will have star back Arian Foster back by the time the game rolls around, meaning a struggling offense that has only scored more than 20 points once won't stand much of a chance in a loud dome.

Especially not against these Falcons considering Matt Ryan's team has posted a minimum of 24 points in all three wins thus far. He's on fire, completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 946 yards with five scores and two picks. Behind him, Devonta Freeman just proved he can be an every-down back with 141 yards and three scores in a win against Dallas.

Don't forget Julio Jones, who already has 34 grabs for 440 yards and four scores. As Houston coach Bill O'Brien told ESPN.com's Tania Ganguli, it's going to take a strong plan to shut down Jones:

Julio Jones is one of the best receivers in our league. He’s big, he’s fast, he’s got great hands, good route runner, he’s just a great player. It’s a big, big challenge for us. Combine that with an excellent quarterback in Matt Ryan, you’ve got a big challenge there. We understand the challenge and we’re going to put together as good a game plan as we can and have a good week of practice and get ready to go play.

It's going to be a long day for the Houston defense considering Atlanta can rush it well to neutralize a rush led by J.J. Watt and Ryan can pick on weak links such as Houston rookie corner Kevin Johnson.

Houston won't be able to move the ball well with Ryan Mallett under center on the road, considering he's completing just 53.6 percent of his passes with 5.2 yards per attempt.

Look for the Falcons to jump out to an early lead and never look back as the pace forces the Texans into uncomfortable territory.

Prediction: Falcons 33, Texans 23

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of Sept. 29. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus

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