NFL Week 3 Picks: Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions Before Thursday Night

It's Week 3 of the 2015 NFL season, so there little fans and bettors can feel fairly secure in at this early stage.

One thing that's become abundantly clear is that it's silly to count out the New England Patriots. Things might've been different had Tom Brady's Deflategate suspension held, but that's neither here nor there. Bill Belichick's dynasty will let us know when it's through toying with the league. 

Aside from that fact of NFL life, the league is off to a fairly topsy-turvy start. The New York Jets, behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, are 2-0. After rushing for 1,845 yards with the Dallas Cowboys last season, Philadelphia's DeMarco Murray has 11 rushing yards. On 21 carries. Six of the nine 0-2 teams in 2015 had winning records last year, a group that includes 2014 Super Bowl runner-up the Seattle Seahawks.

So it's little wonder there are so many narrow odds and similar over/unders in Week 3. Few teams have shown their true colors this season. Here are the odds and predictions for each Week 3 game.

Thursday, September 24
Sunday, September 27
Monday, September 28
Time (ET)	Matchup	Spread	Over-Under	Prediction
8:25 p.m.	Washington at New York Giants (-3.5)	NYG -3.5	44	NYG 24-21 WAS
1 p.m.	Oakland at Cleveland (-3)	CLE -3	42.5	CLE 24-20 OAK
1 p.m.	Cincinnati at Baltimore (-2.5)	BAL -2.5	44.5	CIN 28-27 BAL
1 p.m.	Jacksonville at New England (-14.5)	NE -14.5	47.5	NE 38-20 JAX
1 p.m.	Tampa Bay at Houston (-7)	HOU -7	40	HOU 20-10 TB
1 p.m.	Pittsburgh (Even) at St. Louis (Even)	Even	47.5	PIT 25-22 STL
1 p.m.	Philadelphia at New York Jets (-2.5)	NYJ -2.5	45.5	NYJ 27-20 PHI
1 p.m.	Indianapolis (-3) at Tennessee	IND -3	45	IND 27-20 TEN
1 p.m.	San Diego at Minnesota (-1)	MIN -1	44.5	SD 31-21 MIN
1 p.m.	Atlanta (Even) at Dallas (Even)	Even	45	ATL 29-20 DAL
1 p.m.	New Orleans at Carolina (-3)	CAR -3	45	CAR 20-17 NO
4:05 p.m.	San Francisco at Arizona (-7)	AZ -7	44	AZ 34-24 SF
4:25 p.m.	Buffalo at Miami (-2.5)	MIA -2.5	43	MIA 27-25 BUF
4:25 p.m.	Chicago at Seattle (-15.5)	SEA -15.5	43.5	SEA 31-13 CHI
8:30 p.m.	Denver (-3) at Detroit	DEN -3	49	DET 24-23 DEN
8:30 p.m.	Kansas City at Green Bay (-7.5)	GB -7.5	49	GB 28-20 KC

Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, September 24 at 7 a.m. ET. 

Prop Bets

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

This week's prop bets feature quarterbacks Jimmy Clausen and Brandon Weeden, taking over for the injured Jay Cutler in Chicago and Tony Romo in Dallas, respectively. Weeden has the unenviable task of keeping the 2-0 Cowboys rolling for what is likely to be a couple of months while Romo comes back from a broken collarbone. It's a situation made all the more tougher by absence of wideout Dez Bryant, who is out with a foot injury.

In contrast to Weeden's duties, Clausen's edict is more along the lines of making sure this discouraging start to the Bears season isn't any more painful than it has to be.

Bettors have a chance to issue votes of confidence or show a lack of faith in these two's abilities with their wallets with Odds Shark's prop bets.

Brandon Weeden
Jimmy Clausen
Bet	Odds
Total Passing Yards	Over/Under 250.5, -115
Total TD Passes	Over 1.5 +120, Under 1.5 -150
Total Passing Yards	Over/Under 210.5, -115
Total TD Passes	Over/Under 1, -115

The Odds are Even

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at St. Louis (1-1)

It's been almost four years since that last time these two teams met, a 27-0 drubbing in Pittsburgh in favor of the home Steelers.

The Rams have come quite a ways since then, while the Steelers have evolved from a defensive-minded team to one predicated on the talents of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the myriad weapons surrounding him, one of whom is ready to make his first appearance of the regular season.

Running back Le'Veon Bell is back from a two-game suspension. The third-year back racked up 11 touchdowns and 1,915 all-purpose yards in 2014, emerging as one of the most fearsome backs in the league. 

Pittsburgh has done just fine in his absence thanks to two excellent games from veteran DeAngelo Williams (204 yards, three touchdowns), who may have played his way into a few extra touches in the coming weeks. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin could be open to a more two-pronged approach in the backfield.

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

“I can’t say enough about the contributions of DeAngelo Williams,” he said, via Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “He’s been a good asset and acquisition for us. He’s working hard to compete and contribute in all areas. Obviously, we get Le’Veon Bell back this week. We are excited about that. But we are excited about having both guys.”

It could be tough to commit to the run against St. Louis, which boasts a talented front seven featuring defensive tackle Aaron Donald and defensive end Robert Quinn. They will be tasked with shutting down the running game, as well as putting pressure on Roethlisberger, who seems to have a telepathic link with wide receiver Antonio Brown.

Should the Rams defense slow this talented offense, Nick Foles and company might have a chance to keep up. The Steelers are 26th in yards allowed and have given up 46 points on the young season, although much of that damage was done in Week 1 against an out-for-blood Tom Brady.

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Foles hasn't been nearly as prolific as Roethlisberger to start the season, but he's avoided the big error so far. He has solid options in the passing game in Kenny Britt, Jared Cook and a mercurial threat in Tavon Austin both in the backfield and out wide. What the team really needs to keep pace with the Steelers, though, is a workhorse back.

Tre Mason is serviceable, but the potential addition of Todd Gurley could spark the offense. The rookie back, who is working his way back from knee surgery, insists he could be ready to go if the Rams need him this week, per the Associated Press (h/t FoxSports.com)

"I'm kind of just going with the flow, taking it one day at a time and not looking too far ahead," Gurley added, via the AP. "But I feel good, I feel good."

If Gurley suits up, he could help keep the Steelers defense on its heels.

Pittsburgh is coming off a big win over San Francisco; the Rams a disappointing loss to Washington. The Rams are at home, but the offense is still coming together. The Steelers have the pieces in place, and then some, so look for them to pull off a narrow road win.

Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-0)

If it weren't for the Cowboys missing their two most visible stars on offense, they would almost certainly be big favorites against the Atlanta Falcons, who are a surprise 2-0 to start the season after a 6-10 campaign last year.

Weeden gave Cowboys fans at least some hope he can get the job done after completing 7 of 7 passes for 73 yards and a touchdown in Romo's stead in a 20-10 Week 2 win over rival Philadelphia. Of course, this is the fourth-year, 31-year-old quarterback with a career 73.4 quarterback rating, per ESPN.com.

Even though Weeden washed out in Cleveland after just two seasons, USA Today's Tom Pelissero notes Weeden has some things going for him that will help him get the job done: 

"

This is the first time Weeden has been in one system for consecutive years dating to his days at Oklahoma State, which lost coordinator Dana Holgorsen to West Virginia between Weeden's two seasons as starter there. Weeden, who will be 32 next month, gets more reps than most backups, thanks to Romo sitting out Wednesday practices.

It's not ideal to step in with all-pro receiver Dez Bryant sidelined by a foot injury and the running game searching for an identity entering Sunday's game against the Atlanta Falcons. But the offensive line is one of the NFL's best, tight end Jason Witten is reliable, Williams has ability and the defense has been rock solid and will soon get reinforcements when suspended Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain return in October...

"

Weeden also has a deep stable of running backs to rely on against Atlanta. Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden can trade off carrying the rock, while Lance Dunbar has emerged as a fine checkdown option in the passing game. 

Player	ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	REC	REC YDS	TGTS
Joseph Randle	34	116	3.4	0	11	115	13
Darren McFadden	16	47	2.9	0	4	56	4
Lance Dunbar	1	8	8.0	0	3	40	3

What they really need to do now to help Weeden is find the end zone, a task that shouldn't be too difficult behind the excellent offensive line if they can get into the red zone.

Outdueling Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons could still prove to be a tough task, although Dallas is helped by the fact it won't have to face them with running back Tevin Coleman, out indefinitely with a fractured rib, per ESPN.com.

Devonta Freeman moves into the starting role, but he's averaging just 2.0 yards per carry this season.

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Still, it seems unlikely Dallas will have an answer for wide receiver Julio Jones, who has 22 catches for 276 yards and two touchdowns already this season. If Atlanta can get Roddy White going, it will prove difficult for Dallas to stop.

Atlanta's much-improved pass rush, led by rookie defensive end Vic Beasley Jr., will need to put pressure on Weeden and force him into the kind of mistakes he has made throughout his career (28 interceptions to 27 touchdowns). Pro Football Focus' Jeff Dooley listed Beasley as one of the reasons why Atlanta should be considered favorites to win the NFC South:

"

According to Neil Hornsby, Matt Ryan is the best quarterback in the division (ranked No. 9 in PFF grading, compared to Cam Newton at No. 12, Drew Brees at No. 29 and Winston at No. 32; Julio Jones is the top-graded receiver in the NFL through two games; their run defense ranks No. 8 in our grading; rookie Vic Beasley, brought in to help fix the Falcons’ anemic pass rush, currently ranks second as a pass-rusher among 4-3 defensive ends. That’s a pretty good formula for a division title.

"

Even if Dallas controls the tempo and time of possession with what should be a solid run game, Ryan and Jones can put Atlanta over the top if the Falcons win the turnover battle.