Week 3 NFL Picks: Predictions, Advice for Latest Vegas Spreads and Odds

Week 2 of the NFL season was filled with plenty of surprises, but instead of complaining about the outcomes, it's important to learn from what happened.  

Upsets ruled last weekend, with the New Orleans Saints, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts and others ruining a lot of survivor pools. The key now is figuring out which results you can trust and which ones are still fool's gold.

While you shouldn't overreact based on one week's results, a number of organizations have shown their true colors—both good and bad—in the first couple of games of 2015. Using this knowledge makes it easier to predict the upcoming games both straight up and against the spread.

Away	Home	Pick	ATS Pick
Washington Redskins	New York Giants	Redskins	WAS +4
Oakland Raiders	Cleveland Browns	Raiders	OAK +3.5
Cincinnati Bengals	Baltimore Ravens	Ravens	BAL -2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	New England Patriots	Patriots	JAX +13.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Houston Texans	Texans	TB +6.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	St. Louis Rams	Steelers	PIT -1
Philadelphia Eagles	New York Jets	Jets	NYJ -2.5
Indianapolis Colts	Tennessee Titans	Colts	IND -3
San Diego Chargers	Minnesota Vikings	Chargers	SD +2.5
Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Falcons	ATL -2
New Orleans Saints	Carolina Panthers	Panthers	CAR -3
San Francisco 49ers	Arizona Cardinals	Cardinals	ARI -6.5
Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	Bills	BUF +3
Chicago Bears	Seattle Seahawks	Seahawks	SEA -14.5
Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Broncos	DEN -3
Kansas City Chiefs	Green Bay Packers	Packers	KC +6.5

Top Picks

New York Jets (-2.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

It's understandable to have hesitation about picking the New York Jets. After all, they are the Jets. Raising expectations is usually the kiss of death, especially against a team expected to have one of the top offenses in the NFL this season.

However, it's hard to look at what these two teams have done over the past two weeks and expect anything other than another Jets win.

The Philadelphia Eagles looked awful offensively in a 20-10 Week 2 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The offensive line was dominated from start to finish, and it resulted in just seven rushing yards on 17 attempts. Bleacher Report's Cian Fahey discussed the biggest change from the past couple of years:

"

Eagles appear to have gone from arguably the best offensive line in the NFL to an offense where the OL handicaps play-calling.

— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) September 20, 2015"

Week 3 doesn't appear like a good opportunity to turn things around either. The Jets have had arguably the best defensive line in the NFL in 2015, and it has led to success against both the run and the pass. Even when the players don't pick up sacks (none against the Indianapolis Colts), they provide enough pressure (11 QB hits) to force mistakes.

After creating 10 turnovers in two games, it's clear this defense will remain a tough challenge all year.

Most importantly, the entire organization seems focused on higher goals instead of settling for the 2-0 start. Head coach Todd Bowles exemplified this mindset after the latest win, per Kimberly A. Martin of Newsday:

The Jets are for real, and you should start picking them until oddsmakers start believing in the hype.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) over St. Louis Rams

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

The strength of the St. Louis Rams is their defensive line, but that unit appeared overmatched last week. The Washington Redskins pounded the ball with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris, while Kirk Cousins remained efficient in the passing game.

If Washington was able to have this much success, it's hard to imagine what the Pittsburgh Steelers and their offense can do in Week 3.

Pittsburgh torched the San Francisco 49ers defense on Sunday, totaling 43 points and 453 total yards. Amazingly, this all came in just over 23 minutes of possession.

Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders gave his thoughts on the Steelers offense:

Le'Veon Bell returns this week, adding one of the best running backs in 2014 to an already impressive unit. The balance between Bell's rushing ability and Ben Roethlisberger's excellent downfield passing could make defending this group almost unfair. 

There certainly isn't anyone on the Rams roster (or possibly in the league) capable of slowing down Antonio Brown.

Pittsburgh does have question marks defensively, and while St. Louis has the playmakers to put up points, it won't be enough to keep up on the scoreboard in this one.

Seattle Seahawks (-14.5) over Chicago Bears

Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

You might think it's crazy to pick an 0-2 team to cover more than a two-touchdown spread. The reality is there might not be a spread big enough to justify picking the Chicago Bears in this one.

Backup quarterback Jimmy Clausen will get the start for the injured Jay Cutler, allowing the Bears to replace one turnover-prone quarterback for an even worse one. Clausen has just a 60 quarterback rating in his career with five touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman thinks this will help lead to a massive blowout:

Chicago might be all right if the quarterback were its only problem, but it isn't. A lack of healthy receivers will give the backup few options in the passing game, leaving running back Matt Forte to do too much on his own. Meanwhile, the defense has allowed 79 points in two games and hasn't shown any signs of progress since last season.

On the other side of the field, the Seattle Seahawks are much better than their record would indicate. The defending NFC champions still have one of the best defenses in football, which will only get better with Kam Chancellor returning this week, per ESPN.com's Sheil Kapadia.

As long as Russell Wilson takes care of business at home against a struggling Chicago secondary, the Seahawks should easily get their first win of the season.

Note: All spread info courtesy of Odds Shark.

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