
NFL Odds Week 2: Last-Minute Betting Guide, Spread and Over-Under Analysis
Do you have a hunch that you know how a game will play out on Sunday? Do you want to make some money off it? Awesome. Put your money where your mouth is and take a swing on Week 2, after Vegas lost a bunch of cash on the first weekend of the regular season.
Before you decide to walk into a casino and throw around cash, though, it's time to educate yourself. How have lines moved? Largely, casinos don't end up losing money on a week-to-week basis, so aligning yourself with them, and against the public, is going to be in your favor.
What is the weather like in these games? A temperature of 56 degrees with rapid wind and rain can greatly change the layout of a 60-minute game.
Who on the injury report is expected to suit up, and who is expected to miss the game? For example, the absence of receiver Mike Evans last week attributed to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' blowout loss at home.
And finally, I'll give my educated suggestions on every point spread this week and a few quality over-unders.
Spread Picks
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As always, you can find my spread picks on Thursdays in Bleacher Report's Ultimate Bettor's Guide.
The Line: New England @ Buffalo (PK)
The Pick: New England (PK)
The Line: Arizona @ Chicago (+1.5)
The Pick: Arizona (-1.5)
The Line: San Francisco @ Pittsburgh (-5.5)
The Pick: Pittsburgh (-5.5)
The Line: Tennessee @ Cleveland (-3)
The Pick: Tennessee (+3)
The Line: Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-10)
The Pick: Tampa Bay (+10)
The Line: Atlanta @ New York Giants (-3)
The Pick: Atlanta (+3)
The Line: San Diego @ Cincinnati (-3.5)
The Pick: San Diego (+3.5)
The Line: Houston @ Carolina (-3)
The Pick: Houston (+3)
The Line: St. Louis @ Washington (+3)
The Pick: St. Louis (-3)
The Line: Detroit @ Minnesota (-3)
The Pick: Detroit (+3)
The Line: Dallas @ Philadelphia (-4)
The Pick: Philadelphia (-4)
The Line: Miami @ Jacksonville (+6)
The Pick: Miami (-6)
The Line: Baltimore @ Oakland (+6)
The Pick: Baltimore (-6)
The Line: Seattle @ Green Bay (-3.5)
The Pick: Seattle (+3.5)
The Line: New York Jets @ Indianapolis (-6.5)
The Pick: Indianapolis (-6.5)
Line Movement
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New England @ Buffalo
Opened: Buffalo +1.5
Current: Buffalo PK
Arizona @ Chicago
Opened: Chicago +1.5
Current: Chicago +2
San Francisco @ Pittsburgh
Opened: Pittsburgh -6.5
Current: Pittsburgh -6.5
Atlanta @ New York Giants
Opened: New York Giants -2.5
Current: New York Giants -2.5
Tennessee @ Cleveland
Opened: Cleveland -3.5
Current: Cleveland +2
Houston @ Carolina
Opened: Carolina -4.5
Current: Carolina -3
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
Opened: New Orleans -9.5
Current: New Orleans -10
Detroit @ Minnesota
Opened: Minnesota -3
Current: Minnesota -2
St. Louis @ Washington
Opened: Washington -2.5
Current: Washington -3
San Diego @ Cincinnati
Opened: Cincinnati -3
Current: Cincinnati -3
Miami @ Jacksonville
Opened: Jacksonville +4.5
Current: Jacksonville +6
Baltimore @ Oakland
Opened: Oakland +6
Current: Oakland +6.5
Dallas @ Philadelphia
Opened: Philadelphia -4
Current: Philadelphia -5
Seattle @ Green Bay
Opened: Green Bay -3
Current: Green Bay -3.5
New York Jets @ Indianapolis
Opened: Indianapolis -5.5
Current: Indianapolis -7
Lines courtesy of Odds Shark.
Over-Under Picks
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San Francisco @ Pittsburgh: Under 46
The San Francisco 49ers are heading to Pittsburgh on a short week after playing late into the night on Monday against the Minnesota Vikings. In their season opener, their offense looked like its peak in 2014, but they still only managed to put up 20 points and two touchdowns.
The Steelers are currently favored by 6.5 points, which means that by Vegas' projections, San Francisco is on the hook for scoring the same amount. On road games in 2014, the 49ers only scored more than 20 points in three of their four games, with only one coming against a team with a winning record.
Pittsburgh managed to post 127 yards on the ground with DeAngelo Williams and 351 yards in the air with Ben Roethlisberger, but the team also only scored two touchdowns and 21 points against the New England Patriots. Don't worry about a defensive touchdown coming from the Steelers, either; their defensive backs haven't made an interception since Week 13 of 2013, when the now retired Troy Polamalu got his hands on the ball.
Detroit @ Minnesota: Over 43.5
The Detroit Lions play a bland version of defensive football with linebacker DeAndre Levy out in coverage. Essentially, any short zone coverage is open. That's how Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers was able to pick his way back from a 21-3 deficit and how receiver Keenan Allen caught 15 receptions in 17 targets.
Who is the Minnesota Vikings' offensive coordinator? Norv Turner, Rivers' former head coach in San Diego. I'm sure his plan to bounce Teddy Bridgewater back is to attack the Lions' short zones.
Defensively, though, the Vikings didn't look great, either. Their front four just couldn't get the pressure they were projected to do, and their secondary is too young to deal with Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, the length of Eric Ebron and Ameer Abdullah out of the backfield.
Expect this to be a much higher-scoring game than is being laid out.
Dallas @ Philadelphia: Under 55
In the last three games that receiver Dez Bryant didn't start for the Cowboys, they have posted scores of 19, 18 and seven. With Bryant out for a couple of weeks, Dallas, which lacks a running game and doesn't have a pass-catcher who can replace the former first-rounder, will struggle to put up points.
The Eagles bailed on running the ball after their first drive against Atlanta last week. They are going from playing in a dome to facing the northeast wind; plus, Cowboys defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli is one of the brightest defensive minds in football.
Lines courtesy of Odds Shark.
Weather Reports
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Open Stadium
New England @ Buffalo
High: 68 degrees
Low: 46 degrees
Description: Mostly Sunny
Precipitation: 0 percent
Wind: North/Northwest 9 mph
Arizona @ Chicago
High: 72 degrees
Low: 56 degrees
Description: Mostly Sunny
Precipitation: 0 percent
Wind: East 5 mph
San Francisco @ Pittsburgh
High: 74 degrees
Low: 51 degrees
Description: Sunny
Precipitation: 10 percent
Wind: North/Northeast 9 mph
Atlanta @ New York Giants
High: 77 degrees
Low: 53 degrees
Description: Partly Cloudy
Precipitation: 0 percent
Wind: North 14 mph
Tennessee @ Cleveland
High: 67 degrees
Low: 54 degrees
Description: Mostly Sunny
Precipitation: 20 percent
Wind: North/Northwest 14 mph
Houston @ Carolina
High: 88 degrees
Low: 65 degrees
Description: Partly Cloudy
Precipitation: 0 percent
Wind: North/Northeast 6 mph
Detroit @ Minnesota
High: 71 degrees
Low: 55 degrees
Description: Partly Cloudy
Precipitation: 0 percent
Wind: South 12 mph
St. Louis @ Washington
High: 78 degrees
Low: 57 degrees
Description: Mostly Sunny
Precipitation: 0 percent
Wind: North/Northeast 12 mph
San Diego @ Cincinnati
High: 74 degrees
Low: 49 degrees
Description: Mostly Sunny
Precipitation: 0 percent
Wind: Northeast 10 mph
Miami @ Jacksonville
High: 92 degrees
Low: 71 degrees
Description: Sunny
Precipitation: 0 percent
Wind: North 6 mph
Baltimore @ Oakland
High: 91 degrees
Low: 62 degrees
Description: Sunny
Precipitation: 0 percent
Wind: North 10 mph
Dallas @ Philadelphia
High: 78 degrees
Low: 56 degrees
Description: Partly Cloudy
Precipitation: 10 percent
Wind: North 14 mph
Seattle @ Green Bay
High: 73 degrees
Low: 48 degrees
Description: Partly
Precipitation: 0 percent
Wind: Southwest 7 mph
Retractable Stadium
New York Jets @ Indianapolis
High: 77 degrees
Low: 49 degrees
Description: Sunny
Precipitation: 0 percent
Wind: North/Northeast 7 mph
Dome Stadium
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
Injury Reports
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D.J. Fluker, RG, San Diego Chargers
According to the San Diego Union-Tribune's Michael Gehlken, Fluker is going to miss some time with an ankle injury. This means Chris Hairston will be the team's right guard. Going head-to-head against Pro Bowl undertackle Geno Atkins is going to be a tough matchup for Hairston, who is coming cold off the bench. Remember, offensive line struggles are what flipped the Chargers' season last year.
Josh McCown, QB, Cleveland Browns
The Browns have ruled out McCown for Sunday's game against the Titans. If you thought that Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota was motivated to face Jameis Winston, the player the Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted over the rookie with the first overall pick, just remember this: Johnny Manziel, who is starting in place of McCown, was Oregon's first quarterback commit of the 2011 recruiting class.
According to the New York Times' Tim Rohan, Mariota nearly signed with Oregon's rival, the University of Washington, after seeing Manziel in a Ducks shirt at a football camp in Eugene they had both attended. Mariota could have fire in his veins two weeks in a row.
Bryan Bulaga, RT, Green Bay Packers
Bulaga, who has had injury issues in the past, is going to miss at least one week with a knee injury. The Packers, who have had a bad history when facing Pete Carroll's Seattle Seahawks, just took a huge hit. They go from starting a $33.75 million man to Don Barclay, a swing tackle who struggled in free agency and missed 2014 with a knee injury himself.
Green Bay only won in Chicago last Sunday because of Aaron Rodgers' stellar ability to get the ball out quickly, and he's going to have to do it even faster against a more athletic Seahawks defense.
Luke Kuechly, MLB, Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers' linebacker unit is the most interesting in the NFL. The linebackers do so much in coverage that they allow cornerbacks and safeties to take smaller zones. With a lineup of Kuechly and two former safeties, rookie Shaq Thompson and veteran Thomas Davis, Carolina had by far the best coverage unit in the league last week, up until Kuechly went down with a concussion.
He's listed as doubtful, but that means there still may be a shot at game time that he straps on a helmet. If he does, the Panthers have a better shot at covering that three-point spread against the Texans, who are starting Ryan Mallett at quarterback after benching Brian Hoyer last Sunday.
Update: Kuechly has now been ruled out against the Texans.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans will be a game-time decision for the second week in a row, but with an extra week to rest his hamstring, there's optimism he'll play, considering the fact that he's practicing. Last week the Buccaneers where blown out at home against a team that finished 2-14 last year. If they're going to stay toe-to-toe with the New Orleans Saints and cover the double-digit spread, Evans will need to be back on the field as Winston's top pass-catcher.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears
How much worse can it get for the Bears' receivers unit? First, Chicago traded away Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets. Second, the team spent the seventh overall pick on Kevin White, just to lose him to a stress fracture in his shin that may keep him out for his full rookie year. If that happens, he'd see his first NFL action as a 24-year-old, the same time that others are looking for contract extensions on their rookie deals.
Now, Jeffery has a hamstring issue that lists him as questionable on Sunday. The Arizona Cardinals are going to throw the ball all over in Chicago. The Bears have to throw the ball to someone to stay in the game, and there isn't another top receiver on the squad if Jeffery isn't ready to go.
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