NFL Odds Week 1: Last-Minute Betting Guide, Spread and Over-Under Analysis

Gambling is time-sensitive. There are games within games to be played. Some like to place bets when lines drop, while others wait for the right opportunity late on Sunday to take advantage of swinging lines. Both of those groups are salivating at the thought of what might go down on Sunday and Monday night.

After a long summer and spring, fall is finally here. Spend your Saturdays watching college ball, and your Sundays watching the NFL. The other five days of the week are for making it up to your spouse.

We'll break down everything you need to know about NFL's Week 1 games heading into the first long day of the season: The current spread. The best over-under bets. What the weather is going to look like. Impactful personnel changes, be it due to transactions or injury.

Embrace Week 1, because by February, you'll be begging for it again.

Spread Picks

David Richard/Associated Press

As always, you can find my spread picks on Thursdays in Bleacher Report's Ultimate Bettor's Guide.

Seattle Seahawks (-4) at St. Louis Rams

Movement: Seattle (-4.5) at St. Louis

Pick: Seattle (-4.5)

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at Chicago Bears

Movement: Green Bay (-7) at Chicago

Pick: Green Bay (-7)

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (-1)

Movement: Kansas City at Houston (PK)

Pick: Houston (PK)

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-3)

Movement: Cleveland at New York Jets (-3.5)

Pick: New York Jets (-3.5)

Miami Dolphins (-4) at Washington

Movement: None

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Movement: Carolina (-3) at Jacksonville

Pick:  Carolina (-3)

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (+3)

Movement: None 

Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers (-3)

Movement: None

New Orleans Saints (+3) at Arizona Cardinals

Movement: New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5)

Pick: New Orleans (+2.5)

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Oakland Raiders

Movement: Cincinnati (-3) at Oakland

Pick: Cincinnati (-3)

Baltimore Ravens (+4.5) at Denver Broncos

Movement: Baltimore at Denver (-5)

Pick: Baltimore (+5)

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

Movement: None

New York Giants (+6) at Dallas Cowboys

Movement: None 

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Atlanta Falcons

Movement: None

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Movement: Minnesota (-3) at San Francisco

Pick: Minnesota (-3)

Lines courtesy of Odds Shark.

Over/Under Picks

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

1. Green Bay at Chicago: Under 49

The Green Bay Packers should be able to put up a good amount of points on the Chicago Bears this weekend, but without receiver Jordy Nelson, they might not be in 2014 form. On the other side of the ball, it's hard to see how the Bears will put up a solid amount of points, considering that wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is still banged up, leaving running back Matt Forte as the only 100 percent healthy star skill player on the squad.

2. New Orleans at Arizona: Over 48.5

The media isn't making a big enough deal about Todd Bowles leaving the Arizona Cardinals. They go from having a cutting-edge defensive coordinator to a virtual unknown: James Bettcher. The team just might struggle more than people expect. Last season, the New Orleans Saints were eighth in yards per pass given up. Both of the offenses can spread the ball around through the air.

Expect points. Many of them.

3. Cleveland at New York Jets: Under 39

This game features two defensive-minded head coaches going head-to-head. New York gave Todd Bowles the keys to a top-five defense as far as personnel is concerned. The Browns made a legitimate effort to improve their defense this offseason, as they always seem to overinvest on cornerbacks—plus they brought in first-round nose tackle Danny Shelton, who looked great in the preseason.

The best skill player in this game is Brandon Marshall, and the second name on the list might be Ryan Fitzpatrick. Expect an ugly, low-scoring game. Don't be surprised if someone finishes the match in the single digits.

Lines courtesy of Odds Shark.

Weather Reports

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

Open Stadium

Green Bay at Chicago

High: 71 degrees

Low: 55 degrees

Description: Mostly Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: West 8 mph

Cleveland at New York Jets

High: 76 degrees

Low: 56 degrees

Description: Scattered Thunderstorms

Precipitation: 60 percent

Wind: West/Southwest 11 mph

Miami at Washington

High: 74 degrees

Low: 52 degrees

Description: Partly Cloudy

Precipitation: 20 percent

Wind: Northwest 20 mph

Carolina at Jacksonville

High: 85 degrees

Low: 64 degrees

Description: Mostly Cloudy

Precipitation: 10 percent

Wind: Northwest 8 mph

Indianapolis at Buffalo

High: 63 degrees

Low: 52 degrees

Description: Showers

Precipitation: 50 percent

Wind: West/Northwest 13 mph

Detroit at San Diego

High: 83 degrees

Low: 72 degrees

Description: Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: West/Northwest 11 mph

Cincinnati at Oakland

High: 75 degrees

Low: 59 degrees

Description: AM Clouds/PM Sun

Precipitation: 10 percent

Wind: West 11 mph

Baltimore at Denver

High: 92 degrees

Low: 57 degrees

Description: Mostly Sunny

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: West/Northwest 9 mph

Tennessee at Tampa Bay

High: 84 degrees

Low: 73 degrees

Description: Scattered Thunderstorms

Precipitation: 60 percent

Wind: West/Northwest 8 mph

Minnesota at San Francisco

High: 78 degrees

Low: 58 degrees

Description: Partly Cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: South/Southwest 14 mph

Retractable Stadium

Kansas City at Houston

High: 84 degrees

Low: 64 degrees

Description: Sunny 

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: East 9 mph

New Orleans at Arizona

High: 103 degrees

Low: 78 degrees

Description: Partly Cloud

Precipitation: 20 percent

Wind: South/Southeast 9 mph

New York Giants at Dallas

High: 88 degrees

Low: 67 degrees

Description: Partly Cloudy

Precipitation: 0 percent

Wind: South/Southeast 12 mph

Dome Stadium

Seattle at St. Louis 

Philadelphia at Atlanta 

All data retrieved via Weather.com's five-day forecasts.

Injury Reports

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

In

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears

The Chicago Sun-Times' Adam Jahns wrote, "At this point, it would be a surprise if they weren’t active Sunday against the Green Bay Packers," regarding the injured receiver unit.

Alshon Jeffery has been nursing a calf issue lately, but the Bears will need him to play if they have any shot at beating the Packers. Quarterback Jay Cutler already lost Brandon Marshall to free agency and rookie first-rounder Kevin White because of injury.

Dontari Poe, NT, Kansas City Chiefs

Dontari Poe is one of the better nose tackles in the league. The Chiefs have largely based their squad around managing the game offensively, leaning on the defense. Against the Texans, who also have defensive studs like J.J. Watt, everyone will need to be in full force to pull away with a road win. Adam Teicher of ESPN's NFL Nation tweeted, "He'll play unless he has a setback."

Game-Time Decision

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Evans told Pat Yasinskas of ESPN's NFL Nation on Saturday that "he felt fine." It's not his decision to make, but that's at least a positive sign for the Buccaneers, who are involved in a head-to-head battle of the first and second overall picks in the 2015 draft on Sunday. If Jameis Winston's team is going to come out with the win over Marcus Mariota's Tennessee Titans, it'll need its top offensive player to be active.

Robert Mathis, OLB, Indianapolis Colts

The key to facing any dual-threat quarterback is the ability to generate pressure, closing in on the pocket while at the same time keeping outside containment on rollouts and broken plays. For 3-4 defenses, that lies on the shoulders of outside linebackers.

Scout.com's Phillip B. Wilson stated head coach Chuck Pagano called Mathis a game-time decision. Wilson also noted the 34-year-old's listed as questionable on the team's injury report. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor might make a splash this weekend for the Bills if Mathis isn't strapped up.

Late Roster Changes

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Aldon Smith, DE, Oakland Raiders

The biggest news of this week came from Oakland, who signed former stud pass-rusher Aldon Smith off the street. Smith was cut by the San Francisco 49ers after multiple run-ins with the law, but he is now able to play just one town over. The Raiders might quickly find a defensive identity, because if Smith and sophomore Khalil Mack, who played linebacker his rookie year, are at their peaks, they're a top-four pass-rushing combo in the NFL.

Terrelle Pryor, WR, Cleveland Browns

If anyone tells you cutting Terrelle Pryor changes how he or she views the Cleveland Browns, you need to mute any football suggestions that person ever gives you. Pryor didn't play the majority of the preseason and has shown nothing at receiver to generate excitement. He's cut. So what? The Browns still don't have quality pass-catching threats.

Billy Winn, DL, Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts are going to struggle with their defensive line early in this season, at least until someone steps up. The Browns aren't known for having a great defense, but the Colts still called them up for backup defensive lineman Billy Winn, who should play defensive end for Indianapolis. His price tag is a conditional draft choice two years from now. Don't expect him to be the one to shut down Buffalo's complex run game.

Other notes

Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green and Giants quarterback Eli Manning may be players to watch in Week 1. The Giants are one of the biggest underdogs this week, despite seemingly having their quarterback of the future locked up. Both signed extensions on Friday, so look out for their respective franchises to attempt to show off their toys. I already had the Giants covering against the Cowboys and the Bengals winning big against Oakland, but this reaffirms my choices.