NFL Predictions Week 1: Odds Projections, Fantasy Stars to Target and More

At long last, the NFL is back. The New England Patriots started off the season Thursday night with a 28-21 win at home over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Tom Brady started his post-Deflategate revenge tour with 288 passing yards and four touchdowns, three of which went to the unstoppable force known as Rob Gronkowski.

The rest of the league will finish out the kickoff weekend with games Sunday and Monday. Let's dive into a look at what to expect out of the remainder of Week 1 with a look at some favorable odds, players who could have a big day in fantasy and other storylines to follow.

Odds to Watch

Whether it is done legally or not, people love to gamble on football. Clay Travis of Fox Sports can confirm:

The folks over at Odds Shark have you covered for all of your Week 1 lines, but let's pick out a few that stand out. For starters, check out the game that doesn't even have a line. The Kansas City Chiefs are on the road facing the Houston Texans, and Odds Shark has the game as a pick 'em. However, 59 percent of the bets have been booked on the Chiefs.

At first, it makes sense. The Chiefs have Jamaal Charles and newly signed Jeremy Maclin on offense and a defense featuring the triumphant return of Eric Berry and Justin Houston, whose new contract still has the ink drying on it.

But dig a little deeper and you'll see the Chiefs could be in for a long day. As a story from the AP on Fox Sports noted, the Chiefs will be starting a rookie center (Mitch Morse), a right guard making his first NFL start (Laurent Duvernay-Tardif) and right tackle Eric Fisher, who Bleacher Report's own Matt Miller thinks could be in for a long day against J.J. Watt:

Watt was a one-man wrecking crew last year, and now he will be joined by former No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney. Good luck to even the best offensive lines trying to block them. They could destroy the game against the Chiefs' suspect offensive front, so choosing the Texans to win in a pick 'em seems like a safe bet.

The other line that stands out is for the last game of the week. The Minnesota Vikings will travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers for the nightcap of the Monday Night Football doubleheader. The 49ers opened as 4.5-point favorites, but bets on the Vikings must have started pouring in because most of the lines listed have Minnesota as a two- to three-point favorite.

It's easy to see why. The Vikings are bringing back stud running back Adrian Peterson, they acquired Mike Wallace during the offseason and they have a defense loaded with young talent. The 49ers, meanwhile, look like a completely different team from a year ago. According to Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com, the Niners lost 37 percent of their snaps from last season, the most of any team in the league.

The defense, in particular, took a serious hit. Patrick Willis, Justin Smith and Chris Borland retired. Cornerbacks Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver and linebacker Dan Skuta left in free agency. This team is a shell of its former self, so look for an up-and-coming Vikings squad to trip up the Niners in Week 1.

Fantasy Players to Watch

You already know about the fantasy workhorses who will be carrying everyone's teams this year. But here's a couple of pass-catchers who are flying a bit under the radar but could have a big performance in Week 1.

Devin Funchess, WR, Carolina Panthers

With Kelvin Benjamin lost for the season, the Carolina Panthers will be looking for a new No. 1 option for Cam Newton. Well, maybe it would be a No. 2 option behind the consistently underrated Greg Olsen. Either way, the Panthers will have a new top wideout this year, and it could very well be rookie Devin Funchess.

Like Benjamin, Funchess is a beast of a wide receiver at 6'5" and 236 pounds (imagine those two lining up on opposite sides...yikes). Funchess has a favorable matchup in his NFL debut as well, squaring off against a Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense that was 22nd in the league last year in passing yards surrendered per game.

The Jags also gave up 7.7 yards per attempt in 2014, the fifth-highest mark in the NFL. That could provide Funchess some opportunities down the field, and his size will certainly make him a touchdown threat in the red zone.

Charles Clay, TE, Buffalo Bills

As Gronkowski proved again Thursday night, a good tight end can wreck a game for an opposing defense. As such, players like Gronk, Jimmy Graham, Olsen, Travis Kelce and Martellus Bennett all were targets in fantasy drafts this year.

But one player at the position who is being massively overlooked is Charles Clay of the Buffalo Bills. In fact, Clay is owned in just 17.6 percent of fantasy leagues on ESPN.

But he has a favorable matchup against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. According to ESPN.com, the Colts were the third-worst team fantasy-wise against tight ends last season. With Greg Roman helming the Bills offense, you can bet the tight end will be featured a lot. As Tyler Dunne of the Buffalo News points out, Roman loved his tight ends in San Francisco:

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In San Francisco, Roman used his tight ends in a multitude of ways. Vernon Davis was targeted 95 and 84 times in two of his four seasons with the coach. And Roman also sparked the career of Delanie Walker, a player built similar to Clay. Expect another tight end — possibly former college quarterback MarQueis Gray — finding a role in Buffalo’s offense, too. As Gray said a few weeks ago, this offense is "tight end heaven."

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Yes, the Bills' quarterback is Tyrod Taylor, who is making his first career start under center. But what better way to get your feet wet as an NFL quarterback than to rely on a talented tight end in a tight end-friendly system? 

If you're unhappy with your tight end in Week 1, chances are Clay is still available, unless there's a Bills fan in your league. He may be worth taking a shot on, at least for a spot start with a favorable matchup.

This and That

Besides betting lines and fantasy, here's a few other odds and ends to keep track of once your team's game is over or as you are flipping through Sunday Ticket.

Rookies Launching Careers

It may be a matchup of two lower-tier NFL teams, but the top two picks in the 2015 NFL draft will be facing off in Week 1. With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Tennessee Titans, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota will be making their NFL debuts against each other. 

This won't solve the argument over which is the better quarterback, but it will be a good opportunity to see two talented young players square off against each other.

Divisional Games Abound

Every game in the NFL season is important, but divisional games always carry a greater significance. If you want your team to make the playoffs, the easiest way is for it to win the division.

There are several divisional matchups in Week 1. The Seattle Seahawks face the St. Louis Rams, the Green Bay Packers will travel to Chicago to face the Bears and the Dallas Cowboys host the New York Giants. Intradivisional games generally carry a built-in rivalry as well, making for an even more exciting watch.

Aldon Smith's Return?

Aldon Smith has been through a rough stretch. The 49ers cut him after a string of off-field incidents. His legal future and his future in the NFL were in question. But then none other than the Oakland Raiders came in and gave him another job.

As Bill Williamson of ESPN.com reports, the Raiders signed Smith to a one-year deal that could be worth as much as $8 million with incentives. Williamson also noted he was charged with three misdemeanors on the same day he was signed.

As of now, according to Williamson, Smith is eligible to play Sunday. He almost assuredly will face a suspension in the future, but for now, he is allowed to suit up. Pairing Smith with Khalil Mack could give the Raiders the foundation of a fearsome defense. As Chris Trapasso of NFL.com points out, Smith could still have his best football in front of him:

One would expect Smith to get suspended eventually considering his history, but if he plays Sunday, he could help the Raiders stun the Cincinnati Bengals.