NFL Week 1 Picks: Odds, Over-Under Predictions Before Thursday Night Football

Here it is, Week 1 in the NFL season. No more waiting, no more agonizing over fantasy drafts and (sadly) no more Hard Knocks. The 2015 season kicks off with a doozy of a contest between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the now-Tom Brady-equipped New England Patriots on Thursday at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

It's time for football fans to celebrate, and for some in that group, time to try to beat the odds. Every team is still something of a mystery heading into the regular season. Some stars might begin their inevitable decline, while out-of-nowhere rookies could make big plays and swing games. 

Parity makes the NFL tough to decode, especially in Week 1, so tread carefully.

Let's take a look at the NFL Week 1 spread, over-under, schedule and predictions before Thursday night. 

Thursday, September 10
Sunday, September 13
Monday, September 14
Time (ET)	Matchup	Spread, O/U	Prediction
8:30 p.m.	Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots	NE -7, (51.5)	NE 35-27 PIT
1 p.m.	Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills	IND -2.5, (45)	BUF 24-23 IND
1 p.m.	Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears	GB -7, (49)	GB 31-20 CHI
1 p.m.	Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans	Even, (41)	HOU 20-17 KC
1 p.m.	Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars	CAR (-3), 41.5	JAX 17-13 CAR
1 p.m.	Cleveland Browns at New York Jets	NYJ (-3), 40	CLE 24-17 NYJ
1 p.m.	Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams	SEA -4, (40.5)	SEA 27-17 STL
1 p.m.	Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins	MIA -3.5 (43.5)	MIA 27-17 WAS
4:05 p.m.	New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals	AZ -1, (48.5)	AZ 27-24 NO
4:05 p.m.	Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers	SD -2.5, (46)	SD 28-27 DET
4:25 p.m.	Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos	DEN -4.5, (48.5)	DEN 27-17 BAL
4:25 p.m.	Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders	CIN -3, (43)	CIN 28-14 OAK
4:25 p.m.	Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB -3, (41)	TEN 21-17 TB
8:30 p.m.	New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys	DAL -7, (51)	DAL 34-24 NYG
7:10 p.m.	Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons	PHI -2.5 (55)	PHI 42-31 ATL
10:20 p.m.	Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers	MIN -2.5 (41.5)	MIN 23-20 SF

Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, September 10 at 7 a.m. ET.

Tennessee at Tampa Bay

The Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have pinned their franchise's hopes to rookie quarterbacks Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston, respectively, and the scheduling powers that be have created a true pundit's delight by pitting them against each other in Week 1.

James Kenney/Associated Press

"It's like two horses at the racetrack,'' Winston said Wednesday, via ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas. "When the alpha sees another alpha, they go on about their business.''

This is how you make a season-opening game between two teams that both went 2-14 last year a must-see event. It is not, however, an easy game to predict. 

Winston would appear to have the better structure in place on offense, with two big targets in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Unfortunately, Evans is dealing with a lingering hamstring injury and didn't practice Wednesday, per Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times.

Winston still has Jackson, and Louis Murphy is a capable wideout who caught 31 passes last year for 380 yards. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a big-target tight end and looking to improve in his sophomore campaign. 

What Mariota has in his favor is the ability to make plays with his legs. Winston moves around in the pocket well and scored two rushing touchdowns in the preseason, but Mariota has much better speed and agility.

For what it's worth, Mariota also vastly outperformed Winston in passing the ball this preseason. 

Player	Games	COMP/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD/INT	RTG	RSH YDS	RSH TD
Mariota	4	21/30	326	10.9	1/1	102.9	17	0
Winston	3	23/47	311	6.6	0/2	52.7	24	2

With the sneaky-good Delanie Walker at tight end, Mariota has a safety valve for when the big plays downfield aren't available. 

There are arguments to be made for both quarterbacks winning this one. With a small spread and one of the week's lowest over-under lines, it's any bettor's guess. Here are a couple of opposing takes, via Ira Kaufman of the Tampa Tribune: 

"

'I think Jameis Winston will win the battle when it comes down to this Week 1 showdown, but Marcus Mariota will win the war, in terms of having the better overall rookie season,' said Gil Brandt, a longtime Cowboys executive who now writes for NFL.com. 'I see Mariota finishing with a better passer rating and completion rate than Winston.'

Fellow NFL.com analyst Charley Casserly likes the visitor’s chances as the Bucs seek to snap a nine-game home losing streak. 

'I am going with Tennessee,' Casserly said. 'I don’t see this as Mariota versus Winston. I see it as Titans (defensive) assistant Dick LeBeau against a rookie quarterback. LeBeau’s record against rookie quarterbacks is 19-2.'

"

Tennessee will hope to get pressure on Winston with defensive end Jurrell Casey and linebacker Brian Orakpo, harassing him into mistakes. Tampa Bay will be looking for a stalwart effort from corner Alterraun Verner against his former team while Gerald McCoy applies pressure up the middle and weak-side linebacker Lavonte David keeps Mariota from making any big plays. 

In what could be a sloppy, back-and-forth affair, look for Mariota to make a few plays with his legs that make all the difference.


Philadelphia at Atlanta

Jon Durr/Getty Images

Under the mad-scientist experimentation of head coach Chip Kelly, the Philadelphia Eagles had perhaps the strangest of all NFL offseasons (other than New England, but that was mostly Brady).

Most notably, the team traded star running back LeSean McCoy, signed (and cut) Tim Tebow, swapped Nick Foles for Sam Bradford at quarterback and, oh, brought in 2014's leading rusher in DeMarco Murray. They also made a really cool hype video narrated by former safety and franchise legend Brian Dawkins.

Whether or not these moves are enough to improve upon last year's 10-6 record remains to be seen, but Kelly's new-look personnel on offense couldn't have asked for a better defense to start the season against than Atlanta. 

The Falcons gave up a ghastly 398.3 yards and 26.1 points per game last season. This and double-digit losses in each of the last two seasons led to the ouster of head coach Mike Smith and his staff. New head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Richard Smith will place an emphasis on stopping the ball, but it could take time for them to see results.

The Eagles averaged 29.6 points and 396.8 yards per game last year, good for third and fifth in the NFL, respectively. Even with different names at key spots, they could improve upon those marks in 2015.

Murray rushed for approximately 500 more yards and eight more touchdowns than McCoy did last year. He won't touch the ball nearly 400 times again, but he could be just as efficient.

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

He'll be supplemented by Ryan Mathews, a very capable back in San Diego when healthy, and Darren Sproles, a dynamic pass-catcher out of the backfield. Sproles, who ran for 328 yards last year and caught the rock for 387 more, could be seeing an increased role on offense.

"We'd like to get him the ball steadily and consistently, and he certainly is a unique, outstanding player," offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur said, via PhillyMag.com's Josh Paunil. "We just need to make sure we get him the ball, and we have a plan to do that."

Bradford missed all of 2014 to injury and could be rusty to start, but he won't have to do much to make Eagles fans forget Foles, who passed for just 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in eight games.

Atlanta has a formidable offense of its own with Matt Ryan throwing to the likes of Julio Jones and Roddy White. The defense should be improved, but will still struggle, even if rookie edge-rusher Vic Beasley is as good as advertised. Kelly and company can afford to push the pace on offense as fast as they want in Week 1. As the Falcons are still getting used to a new coaching regime, it could make for some broken plays on defense.

Do expect Jones to have a big night, and perhaps an even bigger season, if ESPN.com's fantasy guru Matthew Berry is to be believed:

"

I say Julio Jones has the best fantasy football season for a wide receiver in the history of the NFL. My thinking: Well, I wanted to do a bold prediction for the guy I already have ranked No. 3 among wideouts, so there you go. But with no run game to speak of and a defense that should struggle, Atlanta should be throwing early and often. Playing the "X" in Kyle Shanahan's offense, there's a very good chance Jones leads the NFL in targets and, with Matt Ryan as his QB, a very good chance he catches most of them.

"

Philly has defensive issues of their own, but Kelly's high-octane offense propels them to victory in a shootout.