Week 1 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Projecting Top 10 Studs at Each Position for Openers

The NFL regular season opened on Thursday, and a new season of fantasy football is upon us.

It's Week 1, and veterans are starting their first years with new teams, rookies are taking their first regular-season snaps and fantasy stars who spent last season on the bench are back and raring to go. With all that turnover and uncertainty, the projected rankings for Week 1 can only tell us so much. 

Yes, Antonio Brown will continue to be a must-start, and defenses will continue to ebb and flow each week, making streaming a good strategy for that unit. But other facts and realities of the 2015 fantasy season will only begin to make themselves clear a few weeks into the action, as patterns emerge. 

With that being said, let's take a look at the top players at each position in fantasy football this week, as well as a "start 'em" and "sit 'em" recommendation for each. 

The players who played in Thursday night's game have been omitted from the projections, so in some cases the rankings may include up to the top 12 projected players. 

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projection
2	Drew Brees, NO	at ARI	18.6
3	Matt Ryan, ATL	PHI	18.2
4	Peyton Manning, DEN	BAL	17.8
5	Tony Romo, DAL	NYG	17.6
7	Colin Kaepernick, SF	MIN	16.8
8	Jay Cutler, CHI	GB	16.7
9	Aaron Rodgers, GB	at CHI	16.5
10	Russell Wilson, SEA	at STL	16.5
11	Andrew Luck, IND	at BUF	16.5
12	Ryan Tannehill, MIA	at WAS	16.5

Start 'Em: Aaron Rodgers, GB (at CHI)

Don Wright/Associated Press

Aaron Rodgers may be ranked as the ninth-best fantasy quarterback in standard leagues in Week 1, but it's hard to imagine that he won't have a field day against the Chicago Bears. 

Chicago's defense allowed 27.6 points per game in 2014, the second-most in the league, and its secondary was the worst in the league. Yes, the team has made changes on the defensive side of the ball, but it's not clear if those will equal a net gain. The Bears lost difference-makers in defensive end Stephen Pea and cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings. 

The team added pass-rusher Lamarr Houston in 2014, but Chicago is currently trying to transition to a 3-4 scheme without all the personnel it needs. It could take a season or more before the team finds its groove defensively. 

In the meantime, Rodgers enters Week 1 with former weapon James Jones back in his arsenal, and top wideout Randall Cobb said he will play Sunday, via ESPN Wisconsin's Jason Wilde. Rodgers and his weapons, even without Jordy Nelson, are huge mismatches for this rebuilding Chicago defense. 

Sit 'Em: Joe Flacco, BAL (at DEN)

Joe Flacco is a sneakily solid fantasy quarterback, worth owning as a QB1 in 12-team leagues and as a QB2 in two-quarterback leagues. He had 27 touchdowns in 2014, 12th among fantasy quarterbacks, and 12 interceptions. It was, in fact, the best fantasy season of Flacco's career. 

However, the matchup against the Denver Broncos in Week 1 does not work in Flacco's favor. Denver's defense is projected to be the sixth-best in Week 1, with pass-rushers DeMarcus Ware, Von Miller and Shane Ray sure to keep Flacco on his toes (or his back) all day. 

Moreover, Flacco's weapons aren't particularly potent—Steve Smith Sr. leads a receivers group that also includes relative unknown Marlon Brown and the injured Breshad Perriman—but will find success against lesser secondaries. Against Denver's group, though, which includes playmakers Aqib Talib and Chris Harris (who combined for seven interceptions in 2014), Flacco might be goaded into a pick or two. 

Flacco isn't a bad player to have in your arsenal in 2015, but keep him on the bench in Week 1. 

Running Backs 

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projection
1	Adrian Peterson, MIN	at SF	15.7
2	LeSean McCoy, BUF	IND	14.8
3	Marshawn Lynch, SEA	at STL	14.8
4	Jamaal Charles, KC	at HOU	14.7
5	Jeremy Hill, CIN	at OAK	14.6
6	C.J. Anderson, DEN	BAL	13.9
7	Eddie Lacy, GB	at CHI	13.8
8	DeMarco Murray, PHI	at ATL	13.8
9	Justin Forsett, BAL	at DEN	11.4
10	Lamar Miller, MIA	at WAS	11.2

Start 'Em: Jeremy Hill, CIN (at OAK)

Cincinnati's Jeremy Hill is coming off a rookie year that saw him post 171 fantasy points, and, understandably, owners have been drafting him expecting a solid follow-up performance. Hill is owned in 99.9 percent of fantasy leagues and has an ADP of 16.8. 

So if you were lucky enough to pick Hill up in the early second round of your fantasy draft this year, should you start him in Week 1 against the Raiders? Absolutely. 

The fantasy football experts at the New York Times really like Hill's matchup this week. 

As the Sablich brothers point out in their Times column, "the Raiders allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns (17) and the 11th- most rushing yards per game (119) in 2014, leading to the most fantasy points allowed to running backs." 

Oakland did sign nose tackle Dan Williams to help the front become less vulnerable to the run, but expect Hill to nevertheless have a great beginning to his season against the Raiders. 

Sit 'Em: Frank Gore, IND (at BUF)

AJ Mast/Associated Press

It's a tough week for the top fantasy running backs, as almost all of them are slated to match up against what are expected to be some of the league's top defenses.

However, even your No. 2s may not be immune to the bane of tough defensive matchups. The Colts' new rusher, Frank Gore, certainly falls into that group. 

First of all, it's always best, if you can, to give a back debuting for a new team a regular-season game or two to establish his new identity before throwing him into the lineup. For Gore, it's also about a non-ideal matchup against a tough Bills front. 

The Bills are expected to have one of the best defenses in the league this season and certainly gave fantasy owners a headache last year when matching up against their skill players. Buffalo's defense allowed just 14.71 points per game to runners last year. 

Especially with the recent report by Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star that head coach Chuck Pagano plans to keep Gore on a pitch count Sunday, try to keep Gore on your bench for observation for a game or two before activating him. 

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projection
2	Odell Beckham Jr., NYG	at DAL	15
3	Julio Jones, ARI	PHI	14.9
4	Calvin Johnson, DET	at SD	14
5	Demaryius Thomas, DEN	BAL	14
6	Dez Bryant (P), DAL	NYG	13.9
7	Randall Cobb (Q), GB	at CHI	13
8	A.J. Green, CIN	at OAK	12.9
9	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	GB	10.5
10	Emmanuel Sanders, DEN	BAL	9.7
11	Mike Evans, TB	TEN	9.5

Start 'Em: Jarvis Landry, MIA (at WAS)

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Good news for the 94.3 percent of fantasy owners who currently have Dolphins wideout Jarvis Landry on their rosters: He is a definite start for Week 1. 

In his rookie season with the Dolphins, Landry had 84 receptions for 758 yards and five touchdowns. Nice numbers for a rookie, but certainly not WR2 or Flex territory, where his current ADP (27th among receivers) would suggest that owners see him this year. 

However, expect Landry to make a big leap in his sophomore season, beginning Week 1 against Washington (whose defense allowed 249.4 passing yards and 26.46 fantasy points to receivers per game in 2014). He is expected to lead the team in receptions, according to ESPN.com's James Walker. 

"Landry has the best hands on the team and has developed trust with Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill," Walker wrote. That last part is crucial, given the rumor that Miami let go of wideouts Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson this offseason because they didn't get along with Tannehill, as Omar Kelly of the Sun Sentinel revealed on WQAM in March (h/t CBS Miami). 

But Tannehill trusts Landry, which leads to targets, which lead to receptions, which lead to touchdowns...you get the picture. 

Sit 'Em: Brandon Marshall, NYJ (vs. CLE)

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

You knew that veteran Brandon Marshall, newly minted New York Jet, was a risky pickup. But you couldn't resist his stat line in 2014: 61 receptions, 721 yards and eight touchdowns.

And since Marshall is on average the 24th receiver drafted by fantasy owners this season, a lot of you are hoping he continues his production with the Jets, because he's currently your No. 2. 

Maybe your hunch was right and Marshall will be able to replicate his past success with Ryan Fitzpatrick in New York. But Week 1 isn't the time to find out you might have been wrong. 

Marshall will have to line up against Cleveland's Joe Haden, who allowed opponents in his coverage a catch rate of just 53.1 percent in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus. 

Give yourself time to evaluate Marshall's performance on your bench before graduating him to your active roster. And if he takes off this season, we give you permission to gloat. 

Tight Ends 

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projection
2	Jimmy Graham, SEA	at STL	9.9
3	Martellus Bennett, CHI	GB	5
4	Greg Olsen, CAR	at JAC	5
6	Travis Kelce, KC (P)	at HOU	4.9
7	Jason Witten, DAL	NYG	4
8	Ladarius Green, SD	DET	4
9	Jordan Reed, WAS	MIA	3.9
10	Larry Donnell, NYG	at DAL	3.9
11	Delanie Walker, TEN	at TB	3.9
12	Brent Celek, PHI	at ATL	3.5

Start 'Em: Martellus Bennett, CHI (vs. GB)

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

When the Bears take on the Packers at Soldier Field in Week 1, tight end Martellus Bennett may be one of quarterback Jay Cutler's only healthy targets on the field. While that could go either way for fantasy owners—the Packers secondary could focus all its attention on blanketing Bennett—this isn't the week to leave him on your bench. 

Wide receivers Alshon Jeffery (calf), Eddie Royal (hip) and Marquess Wilson (hamstring) all appear on the Bears' Week 1 injury report. While Chicago's game plan will undoubtedly include lots of Matt Forte against the Packers' suspect run defense, a subsequent defensive stacking of the box on the Packers' part could open opportunities for Bennett. 

And in the red zone, if the Bears are passing the ball, expect Bennett to be Cutler's first read every time. 

Bennett is coming off a season in which he finished fifth in points among tight ends in fantasy with a career-high 916 yards and six touchdowns. Those numbers shouldn't take a big hit in new head coach John Fox's system, which spurred Julius Thomas' development in Denver. 

Sit 'Em: Coby Fleener, IND (at BUF)

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Not only might Colts tight end Coby Fleener be a sit 'em option for Week 1...but you might want to consider dropping him altogether.

That probably doesn't sit well with the 28.8 percent of fantasy owners who drafted Fleener this year, perhaps hoping he would earn No. 1 snaps over veteran Dwayne Allen. But recent reports out of Indianapolis suggest that Allen will be the Colts' No. 1 tight end this season. 

Yes, Fleener was a top-10 fantasy tight end in 2014, with 774 yards and eight touchdowns, but he also had six dropped passes, as noted by Pro Football Focus, the third-most among all tight ends. Those are potential points that he's leaving on the field.

In fact, Fleener's drop rate of 10.53 was the highest among qualifying tight ends last season, according to PFF. 

The Bills defense also presents a tough matchup for either Fleener or Allen in Week 1. If you have a non-Colts tight end on your roster, this is the week to play him. 

D/ST

Rank	Unit	Opponent	Projection
1	Seahawks	at STL	12.4
2	Panthers	at JAC	12.4
3	Bengals	at OAK	10
4	49ers	MIN	9.8
5	Dolphins	at WAS	9.1
6	Buccaneers	TEN	8.6
7	Browns	at NYJ	8.3
8	Titans	at TB	8.2
9	Packers	at CHI	8
10	Jets	CLE	7.6

Start 'Em: Carolina Panthers (at JAC)

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Tied for the the highest-projected fantasy points among all units in Week 1, the Panthers defense has an extremely favorable matchup against the Jaguars on Sunday. 

Jacksonville is projected to score just 19.25 points this week and in fact didn't score more than 25 points in any game in 2014, averaging just 15.6 points per week. Sure, things could be different this year, given that Jacksonville has one of the easiest schedules, but if the Jaguars are going to turn things around, it probably won't be against this Panthers defense. 

Carolina finished 10th overall in fantasy points in 2014, including 13th in sacks and 11th in takeaways. Meanwhile, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles threw the second-most interceptions among quarterbacks in 2014, with 17. 

This matchup is a no-brainer in Week 1. 

Sit 'Em: San Francisco 49ers (vs. MIN)

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

The 49ers defense was one of the best units in fantasy last season, so it's no surprise that fantasy owners are drafting it as the ninth defense overall. That means that whether you play in a 10- or 12-team league, someone is planning to start the 49ers this week.

If it's one of your opponents, let them. If it's you, consider skimming the waiver wire this week.

There's no telling how the mass exodus of defensive talent this offseason, including losing linebackers Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith, Chris Borland and defensive tackle Justin Smith, will affect the 49ers. But the effects probably won't be positive.

Moreover, the Vikings offense is poised to have an extremely competitive year, led by fast-developing quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and bolstered by the return of running back Adrian Peterson, not to mention the potential of Charles Johnson and Mike Wallace. 

Kickers

Rank	Player	Opponent	Projection
1	Phil Dawson, SF	MIN	9.3
2	Matt Bryant, ATL	PHI	8.8
4	Randy Bullock, HOU	KC	8.5
5	Blair Walsh, MIN	at SF	8.4
7	Matt Prater, DET	at SD	8.3
8	Justin Tucker, BAL	at DEN	8.3
9	Andrew Franks, MIA	at WAS	8.3
10	Steven Hauschka, SEA	at STL	8.2
11	Mason Crosby, GB	at CHI	8.1
12	Greg Zuerlein, STL	SEA	8.1

Start 'Em: Mason Crosby, GB (at CHI)

Don Wright/Associated Press

How the new NFL extra-point rule change will affect fantasy kickers this year is unknown, but Green Bay's Mason Crosby is still a pretty safe bet in Chicago this Sunday. 

Though Packers coach Mike McCarthy handed over play-calling duties to his former offensive coordinator Tom Clements, he's still pulling the strings. And McCarthy tends to be a conservative coach who takes the field goal over going for it and who probably won't attempt many two-point conversions, given Green Bay's so-so red-zone performance. 

Crosby was a top-five fantasy kicker last season, going 27-of-33 on field-goal attempts and making 53 of 55 extra-point attempts. 

The Packers figure to score a lot of points on the Bears, which should allow for plenty of extra points. 

Sit 'Em: Phil Dawson, SF (vs. MIN)

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Phil Dawson was unreliable in 2014, and it's the same story in Week 1 for the 22.2 percent of fantasy owners who drafted him this year. 

Dawson's big issue last season was simply his lack of production. He only had six field goals in the last six games of 2014 and finished 16th overall in fantasy points. 

The 11th kicker drafted by owners this season, Dawson is someone's starting option in 12-team leagues. But for this week, against the Vikings, you should perhaps see if there's a kicker with a better matchup on the waiver wire.

If Dawson starts to pick it up after Week 1, you shouldn't have an issue picking him back up.  

All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.