Philadelphia 76ers' Future Preparing to Arrive Right on Schedule
The Philadelphia 76ers are a basketball disaster.
General manager Sam Hinkie's tank-tastic approach to rebuilding is an affront to all that is sacred and holy about the NBA and the spirit of competition that guides it.
Karma is a you-know-what, so the Sixers will never climb out of their current quagmire so long as they're being run like a private-equity takeover.
Focus on the forest rather than the trees, and you'll find the Sixers' controversial experiment in roster construction might actually be on track. The reality of Philadelphia's improving situation may have something to say about those and scores of other hot takes.
As franchise legend Julius Erving (aka Dr. J) revealed during an appearance on SiriusXM Radio in July, the team had discussed a seven-year timetable to "be good, to be formidable, to be a contender."
That target, which would put the Sixers back on the map around 2018-19, remains far enough away to seem feasible for Philly but also leaves plenty of room for the doubt that's flooded in to do so.
It's easy to see why Hinkie and his club have become such lightning rods for ridicule. In the two seasons since Daryl Morey's former right-hand man was tapped for the top job in the City of Brotherly Love, the Sixers have cobbled together an abysmal record of 37-127—far and away the worst of any franchise in the NBA over that time.
| Philadelphia 76ers | 37-127 | 0.225 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 48-116 | 0.293 |
| Orlando Magic | 48-116 | 0.293 |
| New York Knicks | 54-110 | 0.329 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 56-108 | 0.341 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 56-108 | 0.341 |
| Sacramento Kings | 57-107 | 0.348 |
| Detroit Pistons | 61-103 | 0.372 |
| Utah Jazz | 63-101 | 0.384 |
| Boston Celtics | 65-99 | 0.396 |
Unlike most of the teams on that dubious table, Philly's futility wasn't a fluke. Shortly after assuming the top front-office job in Philadelphia, Hinkie summarily dismantled a squad that, a year earlier, had come within a game of sneaking into the Eastern Conference Finals.
Out went Jrue Holiday, in a draft-day trade for the rights to injured Kentucky big man Nerlens Noel, who fell from being the presumptive No. 1 pick all the way to No. 6. Out went Spencer Hawes and Evan Turner, in deadline deals with Cleveland and Indiana, respectively. Out went Thaddeus Young, to Minnesota as an adjunct in the Andrew Wiggins-Kevin Love blockbuster. And out went Michael Carter-Williams, the reigning Rookie of the Year, to Milwaukee this past February.
| July 12, 2013 | Jrue Holiday, Pierre Jackson to New Orleans | Nerlens Noel, 2014 first-round pick |
| Feb. 20, 2014 | Spencer Hawes to Cleveland | Earl Clark, Henry Sims, two 2014 second-round picks |
| Feb. 20, 2014 | Evan Turner, Lavoy Allen to Indiana | Danny Granger, 2015 second-round pick |
| Aug. 23, 2014 | Thaddeus Young to Minnesota | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Alexey Shved, 2015 first-round pick |
| Feb. 19, 2014 | Michael Carter-Williams to Milwaukee | 2015 first-round pick |
In their places came passels of future assets and a flood of fringe prospects, most of whom would probably be plying their craft in the D-League or overseas if not for the Sixers' revolving door.
Meanwhile, the team's top picks from 2014, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric, could only watch from afar. Embiid sat out what would've been his rookie season with a foot injury and figures to miss his second consecutive campaign after undergoing another surgery in the wake of a setback in his recovery. Saric, on the other hand, is locked into his contract with Anadolu Efes in Turkey until the summer of 2016.
All of this points to the Sixers still being light-years away from playoff participation, let alone championship contention. Cue the hot takes, right?
Maybe not.
In fairness to Philly, the 76ers weren't exactly ticketed for the Finals when Hinkie took over.
They'd just finished ninth in the East, at 34-48, while watching, waiting, hoping and praying that Andrew Bynum would contribute something to the Sixers' cause beyond his tonsorial adventures. Turner, the No. 2 pick in the 2010 draft, hadn't morphed into the younger, more offensively gifted version of Andre Iguodala that so many had hoped he would be. The Doug Collins-led run to Game 7 against the Boston Celtics in 2012 looked more like a fluke of Derrick Rose's first-round injury than the beginning of an era of sustained excellence.
In other words, it was time for the Sixers to start over. For Philly, the best way to do so was to tear the roster down to the studs and build back through the draft. As the Philadelphia Inquirer's Mike Sielski explained (presumably to himself):
"OK, so why can't you put a competitive team on the floor and try stumbling?
You could. The Sixers did for years, and it got them trapped in the NBA's netherworld: rarely bad enough to secure a high lottery pick, never good enough to challenge for a championship. A team might build itself into a contender by mining mid-to-late first-round picks and second-round picks, but the odds of that approach working are much slimmer compared to the fortuitousness of obtaining a top-five pick and having the draftee develop into a superstar. Hinkie has tried to maximize those odds, both by stripping the Sixers to bones and by hoarding draft picks. Remember: They will likely have four in next year's first round.
"
Philly's forlorn fans might not have to wait that long for the glints of hope for which they've been clamoring.
Hinkie's oft-lambasted labors have already produced at least one ripe piece of fruit in Noel. The Massachusetts native earned first-team All-Rookie honors in 2014-15 after averaging 11.6 points, leading all newcomers with 8.2 rebounds and ranking among the top 10 in the entire NBA in steals, blocks and defensive rating.
| 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.9% | 5.0% | 99.2 |
| 10th | 8th | 6th | 9th | 8th |
Since then, Noel has spent much of his time working on his frame and his game in Rhode Island, away from the distractions that usually occupy the offseasons of NBA players. According to the Inquirer's Keith Pompey, Noel has attempted at least 500 jumpers per day, under the supervision of his manager, Chris Driscoll, and former Boston Celtics coach John Carroll, to sharpen his awkward (but improved) shot.
There's no need for Noel's handlers to light too big of a blaze beneath his rear end in this regard. The Sixers have already done that, intentionally or otherwise. If Embiid ever makes his way back onto an NBA court and stays healthy therein, Noel could find himself absent a starting gig.
"It's a pressure year for me to show what I am capable of and definitely show what I worked this hard for," Noel told Pompey. "So I think I'm in a good position to showcase it all. My ceiling will be better at the 4 position."
It had better be. He'll be tasked with holding down the Sixers' spot at power forward next to Philly's newest crown jewel, Jahlil Okafor.
The Duke standout landed in the Sixers' lap at No. 3 in the 2015 draft. In Philly, Okafor figures to find himself entrenched almost immediately as the focal point of an offense that's been the league's least efficient in each of the last two seasons, per NBA.com.
Fortunately for both parties, Okafor seems fit for the role. His skills in the low post are already superior to those of most of his professional peers, which is pretty impressive for a rookie who doesn't turn 20 until December. His diverse back-to-the-basket game—the product of years of work put in under the watchful eyes of his father, Chucky, and his trainer, Rick Lewis—should allow him to score and draw extra defensive attention to his talents, thereby opening up the floor for his teammates.
Among those teammates available for kick-outs will be Robert Covington. The 6'9" forward out of Tennessee State burst onto the scene in his second NBA season as much for his three-point shooting (37.4 percent from deep on 6.4 attempts per game) as for his cap friendly contract. He's slated to make $1 million this season and can remain under the Sixers' control at only slightly more than that per year through 2017-18.
Covington will be joined on the wing in Philadelphia by the Sixers' other big score from the summer, former Sacramento Kings shooting guard Nik Stauskas. Hinkie snagged the native Canadian as part of a salary dump that also brought Jason Thompson (later traded to Golden State for Gerald Wallace), Carl Landry, a 2018 first-rounder and pick swap rights in 2016 or 2017.
Stauskas has the requisite perimeter skills to help unclog the court a bit in Philly. Before he unwittingly fell into a second life as a human hot-sauce meme, Stauskas was a sharpshooter at the University of Michigan, where he knocked down 44.1 percent of his three-point attempts.
Stauskas' stroke didn't translate so well during his rookie season, when he shot just 32.2 percent from deep. But his circumstances in Sacramento were far from ideal. He was trapped on the depth chart behind Ben McLemore, a talented shooting guard who'd been a lottery pick out of Kansas a year earlier. As a result, Stauskas logged more than 20 minutes in just 19 games during a tumultuous campaign in which three different coaches attempted to lead the Kings.
To his credit, Stauskas started to turn things around once George Karl came in to assume Sacramento's coaching duties. After the All-Star break, Stauskas shot 42.1 percent from three while playing more than 19 minutes per game.
Philly is well behind Sacramento in current talent but way ahead of the Kings in terms of organizational stability and player development. With the Sixers, Stauskas will get to play major minutes under the auspices of a coaching staff, led by Brett Brown, that has done well to mold the talent it's had on hand, especially given the perpetual turnover.
They may need Stauskas to serve as a playmaker at times, as well. With Tony Wroten Jr. and Pierre Jackson both coming off career-altering injuries, the Sixers will turn to Isaiah Canaan, a diminutive scoring guard out of Murray State, to play the point.
Philly may be able to find a more stable long-term option at that position—one who appeals to the front office more than Carter-Williams once did—in next year's draft. The Sixers could own as many as four first-round picks in 2016, with two (i.e. their own and the Los Angeles Lakers' pick they netted for Carter-Williams) potentially ticketed for the top 10.
Those selections could put Philly in position to pick up one of the upcoming crop's top creators, be it a one-and-done candidate (LSU's Ben Simmons, Kentucky's Jamal Murray) or a more seasoned ball-handler (Providence's Kris Dunn, Notre Dame's Demetrius Jackson).
However next year's draft shakes out, the Sixers can count on at least one highly touted newcomer for 2016-17: Saric, the No. 12 pick in the 2014 draft. The two-time FIBA European Young Men's Player of the Year has made it clear that he plans to leave his Turkish team once his contract allows him to do so. As he told Jutarnji List's Karmela Devcic (translation by Sportando):
"Next summer I will, probably, finally go where I want, to the biggest basketball league in the world, NBA. It is imperative to do more next year with Efes and then it's time for America. This year we tried something, but as Efes asked me to stay and said that they remain as an important player, I was forced to stay on it. Finally, I see that it makes sense to stay and improve here.
"
Saric has plenty of room for that. The 21-year-old shot just 30.6 percent from three in Euroleague play last season. A sharper shot would make Saric, already adept at getting up and down the floor and a crafty finisher to boot, a solid addition to the Sixers' young wing rotation.
And with any luck, Embiid will be ready to throw his name into the ring up front once Saric, who hails from Croatia, is able to cross the Atlantic. The additions of Saric and Embiid could create logjams at their respective positions that, in time, afford Hinkie the leeway to trade some of his young studs not only without fear of a downgrade, but also with the hope of instant improvement.
The Sixers will have plenty to keep them busy until then. There are still plenty more cost-effective youngsters to sort through, from rookies like Richaun Holmes and Scottie Wilbekin to the slew of holdovers from last season (i.e. Hollis Thompson, JaKarr Sampson, Furkan Aldemir, Jerami Grant). Should even one or two useful rotation players emerge from these groups, what once seemed a silly approach to roster construction will have proved pertinent to Philly's overall pursuit.
"We're trying to make sure that when our guys start getting older, or a legit free agent is attracted to our program, the infrastructure is in place to absorb it all," Brown, the head coach, told ESPN The Magazine's Pablo Torre back in February. "But none of us are beating our chests, saying that it's 100 percent certain we're going to get this right."
It's even less certain that the Sixers will know whether or not they got it right within the next two years or so. Philly was the youngest team in the league in 2014-15 and could skew even younger in 2015-16 (with Okafor, Stauskas, Holmes and Wilbekin) and younger still in 2016-17 (with Embiid, Saric and a slew of new draftees). Whatever the talent level may be at that point, those players will need time to acclimate themselves to the NBA game and develop their own.
Realistically, then, the Sixers might not see any inklings of an Eastern Conference power from this incarnation until 2018-19—if they ever do.
Philly's preferred path to success, as replete with potholes and obstacles as it is, has worked for other teams. Look no further than the reigning champion Golden State Warriors.
In 2009, they were a destitute team, two seasons removed from their remarkable "We Believe" campaign and one past a 48-win campaign that still fell short of the Western Conference playoff picture.
That year, they just about stole Stephen Curry with the No. 7 pick in the draft. Two years later, they nabbed Klay Thompson at No. 11. Come 2012, Harrison Barnes (No. 7) and Draymond Green (No. 35) came aboard.
Golden State's rebuild wasn't without its pitfalls. In the summer of 2013, the Warriors gave up a gaggle of assets to the Utah Jazz to clear the cap room needed to sign Andre Iguodala.
Before that, the team drew serious ire for trading Monta Ellis, a favorite of the Oracle Arena faithful, to Milwaukee for an injured Andrew Bogut in March 2012. It's no wonder, then, that the fans were so vocal in their displeasure toward owner Joe Lacob during Chris Mullin's jersey retirement that same month.
Chances are, many of those same fans showed up to the Warriors' massive championship parade through Oakland this past June. Surely, every Sixers supporter who's adopted "Trust the Process" as a calming mantra would do the same if and when their squad has such a celebration.
In the interim, it's still too early to say that Philly's grand experiment will pay off in any positive manner. But with the way things are progressing, it's also too early to condemn the Sixers as a sideshow, especially when the team's main event could soon be in sight.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.
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