Western & Southern Open 2015: Winners and Losers from Cincinnati
The stars were out at Cincinnati's Western & Southern Open, and once again Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic reinforced what they always seem to do here. The Swiss champion and the Serbian runner-up are about as good a guarantee as there is in tennis.
On the women's side, Serena Williams continues to prime herself for her next great personal challenge, but will anyone really challenge her? Simona Halep has to feel like her best tennis simply is not enough, especially the prospect of defeating Serena at a major.
There were a few other unusual angles to an exciting week of tennis, including the reality that an injured Rafael Nadal is more likely to generate interest than a a subpar Nadal who is getting beat in the middle rounds of Masters 1000 tournaments.
This is the final Winners and Losers commentary before we kick off our U.S. Open coverage, but it's a revealing week of outlooks.
Loser: Media Coverage for Rafael Nadal
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Even media coverage for Rafael Nadal’s decline is not generating the interest it once had. Tennis Twitter king and New York Times writer Ben Rothenberg captured this best when he tweeted what it was like to follow up on Nadal’s postgame press conference after his tight third-round loss to Feliciano Lopez: "Emptiest Nadal presser I've ever been to—only three reporters. Is his losing no longer news? That said, he's rarely been more thoughtful."
For his part, Nadal gave credit to Lopez in his press remarks: “I played well today. I didn’t play a bad match at all. I think Feli played great.”
No further technical analysis for the moment. Even Nadal fans probably need a break.
Winner: Alexandr Dolgopolov
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Now and then Alexandr Dolgopolov finds a streak with his buggy-whip frame and surprising power. Dismissed from tennis conversations after a year of futility, and entering Cincinnati with a disappointing ranking at No. 66, the Ukrainian put together a great week that was a couple blinks away from a championship appearance.
Flashing the form that saw him storm to the 2014 Indian Wells semifinal, Dolgopolov has been the epitome of a risk-reward puncher, and with excellent success this week. He hammered Bernard Tomic, outlasted Jerzy Janowicz and blasted Tomas Berdych.
He even outhit Novak Djokovic for nearly two sets in the semifinal, albeit with more unforced errors and a poor first serve, but he had the Serbian reeling with a tired effort. Then the wheels came off just as the finish line was about two paces from his nose. Up a set and 5-4 in the second-set tiebreaker, he couldn’t capitalize on either of his serves.
Ten minutes later, and sitting through a medical timeout, he had to have been kicking himself for his mini-collapse. He left the window open and the world No. 1 bolted through the door.
It was still a great week for Dolgopolov, who will rise 27 slots in the rankings. Will he build on this momentum or go back into hibernation? History tells us that the latter is more likely.
Loser: Inconsistent WTA Stars
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Time for the WTA merry-go-round to see which stars are on board and which ones have hopped off. Each week seemingly brings about new rotations, so if your favorite star is off today, there’s a good chance she will replace one of those who seems to be flying right now.
This week’s bystanders are Agnieszka Radwanska, Petra Kvitova, Caroline Wozniacki and Maria Sharapova (who withdrew before the tournament with a right leg injury.) None of them won a match.
All this means is that they should be fresh and ready to make a run at the U.S. Open title, right? So while Serena Williams and Simona Halep are playing resilient tennis, momentum will again be hauled off in handcuffs and detained in some nondescript maximum security prison while the WTA continues with its version of "Bingo with the Stars."
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Winner: Richard Gasquet
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Apparently veteran Richard Gasquet didn’t want Wimbledon to end. After the Frenchman’s impressive run to the semifinals, he has continued to amp up his consistency.
The past week in Cincinnati thrust him into the spotlight a little more than usual for the first couple of rounds. Always the professional, he might have picked up a few more fans when he disposed of Australia’s green hopefuls Nick Kyrgios and Thanasi Kokkinakis, dishing out easy straight-sets wins.
Then there was a legitimately strong win over U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic followed by a three-set loss to Andy Murray. It’s enough to make him a player to avoid in New York.
At the least, Gasquet will give an efficient effort with his strokes, play the percentages and rely on unflappable experience. At best, he can take a few chances and come in on balls, enough to pressure any star who thinks he can try to turn on the autopilot.
Loser: Tommy Robredo
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Maybe now Tommy Robredo can empathize with Andy Murray. Back in November, the star Scotsman was humiliated by Roger Federer 6-0, 6-1, a bagel and a breadstick for tennis infamy.
Robredo was no better against Tomas Berdych in the third round at Cincinnati, losing by that same score much quicker than it will take to finish this sentence.
Nobody's really going to question Robredo's efforts. These days just happen, and against a more powerful star who was playing lights out, well, it's actually surprising that these lopsided results do not happen more often.
That's small consolation for Robredo, who may not have needed to change his shirt on his way off the court. There's no question his practice sessions will have a little more purpose as the U.S. Open gets underway.
Winner: Roger Federer vs. Andy Murray
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It seems like it’s been a century since Andy Murray has had a single break off Roger Federer’s serve. Well, it’s been one year, and since that 2014 Cincinnati second set (which Federer won), the Swiss has swept seven straight sets without losing his serve.
So give credit to Federer first of all for mixing in his late-career phase of “dominant and crafty” with his serve and strategic upgrades on smothering the net. For all of the Scot’s greatness with the return game, he’s appreciably leaner than World No. 1 Novak Djokovic in pressuring Federer’s serve.
Federer was the fresher player, having logged about half as much time on court this week alone. While he was bouncing along with his youthful footwork, Murray’s groundstrokes were dispirited, more like some of the pushing he did over half a decade ago.
But this was also the price that each player paid. Would Murray choose to be rested and fresh for this Cincinnati semifinal at the expense of his Rogers Cup victory over Djokovic? No way. Even if he were fresh for Cincinnati, there’s no guarantee he would have defeated Federer and Djokovic.
Federer also made the best choice for himself. While Djokovic and Murray logged insane court time with singles and doubles in Canada, Federer was primed for his preferred and faster surface to make a run at his seventh Cincinnati title.
Loser: Simona Halep
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OK, Simona Halep, the last two years have been an impressive rise near the top of the WTA rankings, and you’ve picked off several mid-level titles and competed hard at majors.
But…
Do you have enough stature and strength to win that elusive major? Will your serve and lack of dominant power do you in? Will you soon watch other young contemporaries like Garbine Muguruza, Madison Keys and Belinda Bencic pass you by?
Can you defeat Serena Williams at a major, even after challenging the American at Miami and putting up a much better fight at Cincinnati in 2015 than 2013?
The former questions will be answered over the next few years, but right now the Serena question is a resounding “No!”
Halep has no excuses. She was rested after destroying Jelena Jankovic in the semifinals. She picked up her serving in the second set after a weak start, and she played pretty well. Just not good enough, though in fairness neither is anyone else these days in the WTA, unless we ask John McEnroe.
Winner: Serena Williams
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Too much power. That’s the difference once again for Serena Williams against the rest of the WTA. This time she turned it on through a solid but unspectacular effort to squeak by Simona Halep in a second-set tiebreaker and win the Western & Southern Open.
Halep’s groundstrokes are more consistent and often better, but Serena can turn the tide with her power. Often Halep seemed to have moderate control during a rally only to find a Serena screamer hitting the corner pocket with Halep waving her racket like a white flag.
Or how about 15 aces to two? Serena has the luxury of erasing her mistakes with the biggest serve in women’s tennis history. Give her props for that as well. She has always had world-class talent, but she has worked hard on her game, especially at this late stretch in her career.
On to the U.S. Open, where once again it’s Serena against the field. Let the talks of the calendar Grand Slam take center stage, because the only player who can stop Serena is Serena.
Loser: Novak Djokovic
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Just a week ago, it looked like Novak Djokovic was set up to complete the first of three acts in sweeping the important titles at the U.S. Open series. But cracks were appearing on the foundation well before the third set of the Andy Murray loss in Montreal.
Hindsight is more accurate than foresight, so clearly Djokovic bit off too much in playing singles and doubles in Canada. There’s also no question that it cannibalized his efforts to compete for Cincinnati’s Western & Southern Open, or maybe he really does not want to hold up that ugly ceramic champion’s vase if his 0-5 record in the final is any indication. (The Cincinnati pottery collection, Tomas Berdych’s 2014 vertical stripe-shirt collection and Stan Wawrinka’s French Open shorts should all be featured in a grotesque murder mystery film.)
At any rate, this was not the Djokovic that has dominated 2015, but an imposter’s shadow. For instance, his semifinal escape over Alexandr Dolgopolov looked as if it were his fifth hour of a lethargic practice. He only hit two backhand winners in that match, and his groundstrokes had very little bite or aggressiveness.
So Djokovic lost two consecutive Masters 1000 finals in back-to-back Sundays after dominating this level of tournament since last fall. It doesn’t help the softer reputation he has had on the North American tour, and he certainly failed to impose a greater edge on Roger Federer and Andy Murray.
The pressure may have just increased as he looks to claim “only” his second career U.S. Open title.
Maybe this will be a nice wake-up call. It’s going to require his best once again, because if he gets dropped at the U.S. Open, many will pile on with his nine-match week in Canada followed by his collapse at the Cincinnati final. Would it have been better that he lost early in one of these venues? The water cooler talk in Serbia will be a bit more animated and nervous over the next few weeks.
Winner: Roger Federer vs. Novak Djokovic
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Of course Roger Federer was fresher than Novak Djokovic, but there’s no disputing that he is the king of Cincinnati. (If the Pete Rose statues are not yet torn down, the Federer statue would be a worthy addition.) Federer hauled in his record seventh title at the Western & Southern Open, while Djokovic dropped to 0-5 in the final.
It was nearly a mirror image of the final they played in 2012. Then, Federer ran through Djokovic 6-0, 7-6(9). This time around it was 7-6(1), 6-3, the final set essentially decided with an early break.
But don’t expect Federer’s celebration to temper his desire to win another major. Djokovic supporters will rightfully point out that Federer must be able to defeat the Serbian in a best-of-five match. It’s ironically the same argument that Nadal supporters were recently able to hold against Djokovic while the Serbian often cleaned up on best-of-three matches against the Spaniard.
But there are differences, of course, mainly that Federer is perceived as having more difficulties with his stamina and powers of recovery in majors this late in his career. Maybe this Cincinnati final was a fair fight if we consider that Federer has six more years of tennis wear and tear.
Part of this explains why Federer has looked to bolster his offensive attack with more ways to shorten points. He has been able to neutralize some of this supposed aging, but most importantly he must counter several more players who can roll with powerful baseline attacks.
It was a perfect week for Federer, who should be rested and match-fit for the U.S. Open. And, no, this will not be the last chance Federer has at a major. He’s once again the No. 2 player in the world and as hungry as ever. Maybe we should give him a few more years before writing his obituary.
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