Winners and Losers from the Kirill Marchenko-Matthew Knies Trade

Kirill Marchenko and Matthew Knies were the subject of trade rumors for most of the summer.

On Monday, just one day before the start of the 2026-27 NHL season, they were both finally traded.

For each other.

The Blue Jackets are sending Marchenko, Miles Wood, and goalie Elvis Merzlikins (with some retained salary) to the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for Knies, defenseman Emil Andrae, and Steven Lorentz.

The deal also comes with Marchenko signing a new long-term contract extension with Toronto.

Marchenko and Knies are obviously the focal points of the deal and the most consequential players involved, so let's take a look at some of the biggest winners and losers of the trade.

Winner: Kirill Marchenko

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Marchenko is the biggest winner here simply because he managed to get everything he wanted.

It had become pretty clear over the past few weeks and months that he had no interest in signing a long-term deal with Columbus. Now he gets the fresh start and new team/city that he had been hoping for, while also cashing in on a six-year, $75 million contract that pays him $12.5 million per season.

Along with the change of scenery and new money, he also gets to play on a Toronto team loaded with high-level offensive talent, which could help him elevate his game and production to an even higher level.

He's always had great underlying numbers and strong production, and now he is joining a team that has Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Gavin McKenna. They could work some offensive magic there. This will be by far some of the best offensive talent he has ever played with in his career.

Loser: Columbus' Perception (for now)

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This is not to say Columbus has lost this trade, or is a loser in the trade from a hockey perspective.

That is not the argument here. Not even close.

Matthew Knies is an outstanding player, and also a very different type of player from Marchenko. He's a big, strong power forward who has not only demonstrated the ability to be a top-line scorer but also to play a physical game and elevate his performance in big moments.

The latter part is something Columbus was badly lacking in 2025-26, down the stretch, when things got tough and adversity built. When head coach Rick Bowness went on his post-game rant after their Game 82 loss, he talked about needing to change the team's culture and mindset.

Maybe this is the type of move that does that.

But here's the problem from a perception standpoint: All anybody outside of Columbus is going to see here is a talented, in-their-prime player with star ability who did not want to re-sign there and ultimately wanted out.

That is a tough thing for your team and your city to have.

Against the backdrop of the uncertainty of Zach Werenski's future and the rumors that surrounded him this offseason, as well as the way Adam Fantilli's contract negotiations played out, it has not been a great offseason in Columbus. At least from a perception standpoint. And that does not even get into past situations involving star-level players like Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky leaving in free agency, or a player like Jeff Carter making himself so miserable there that they had to quickly trade him shortly after acquiring him.

If you've ever been to a game in Columbus, you know it's a strong, very loyal fan base, given how little the organization has given them to get excited about over the years.

It's still a team that has not won a lot, and has not really had a ton of superstar players ... or been able to keep a lot of the superstar players that briefly came through the city.

The national and league-wide perception takes a hit from all of that.

This will not help that perception.

The only way to change that perception is to win. Maybe Knies is the type of player who can help fix that.

Winner: Columbus' Long-Term Salary Cap Outlook

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After finally signing Adam Fantilli to a long-term deal that pays him $13.5 million per season, Columbus found itself in a bit of a salary cap crunch going into the season that needed to be addressed.

While Marchenko was only set to earn $3.8 million this season, the $12.5 million contract extension represents a massive jump starting next season. He might be worth it. He's an excellent player. But that's still a big price tag for a first-line winger who might only top out as a second-tier star, and not quite a first-tier star. Even with the rising cap.

The Blue Jackets were also able to shed Miles Wood's $2.5 million per year over the next three years. It was by no means an albatross of a contract, but Wood wasn't really adding much either.

Columbus knows it is getting a really good winger back who will only take up $7.75 million against the cap through the 2031 season. Maybe you think Marchenko is a better player. He very well might be, and you certainly would not be wrong to hold that opinion. But do you like him for nearly $5 million extra dollars per year? Especially when Knies is a younger player and could, in theory, still improve from where he is now? Especially when you factor in the savings from dumping Wood's future contract?

Loser: David Pastrnak and the Boston Bruins

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This is a weird little subplot you only catch if you pay attention to these things, but Boston could have really used a player like Marchenko, and there was plenty of smoke linking him to the Bruins.

Then this week, it was pointed out that Bruins players David Pastrnak and Nikita Zadorov started following Marchenko on social media, which is always the breeding ground for unfounded trade rumors.

And then Marchenko not only did not go to Boston, he went to a team in Boston's division.

Tough luck.

Winner: Toronto's Offense and the Excitement Around It

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Marchenko is going to be very expensive, and he has never quite played in the pressure cooker of a situation he will face with Toronto and the expectations that come with it. Especially as a $12.5 million-per-year player.

He is also older than Knies, and there is always some risk in trading a cheaper, younger player with comparable box score numbers for an older, more expensive player.

But objectively speaking, Marchenko is a better player in the short term (and perhaps the long term) and adds a lot to the Maple Leafs lineup that Knies does not, and might never, add.

Knies can play a physical, powerful game, but he is not the type of player who is going to really drive his own line or create a ton for himself. He will finish, score some tough goals, and aggressively forecheck. But he still needs some people around him to help drive the bus from a possession standpoint.

Marchenko can create more on his own. He is a better possession driver and is a more offensively skilled player and playmaker. There is a lot to be said for all of that.

Adding him to a lineup with Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, and McKenna could make this a potentially entertaining offense.

Whether or not that makes Toronto a better team remains to be seen. But it should certainly be a fun team, and that was another, lesser problem for the 2025-26 Maple Leafs. They were not only bad but also boring. Bad and boring is no way to go through a hockey season. The additions of McKenna, Marchenko, Darren Raddysh, and Sergei Bobrovsky at least add a little bit of juice to a team that was lacking it.