Buying and Selling Playoff Chances of the NFL's 2-0 and 0-2 Teams Entering Week 3

After two games, half the NFL is either in the penthouse or the outhouse. Rolling and undefeated or reeling and winless.

Now, a 2-0 start doesn't guarantee anything—since the postseason expanded to 14 teams in 2020, one in four teams that start the season 2-0 miss the playoffs altogether. Conversely, an 0-2 start isn't the kiss of death. In each of the past two seasons, three teams that started the season 0-2 made the playoffs. Three teams that have started the season with back-to-back losses won the Super Bowl—the 1993 Cowboys, 2001 Patriots and 2007 Giants.

In other words, at least one of this year's hot starters will probably falter and wind up watching the playoffs from home. And there's a real chance that one of those slow starters will shake it off and get into the postseason tournament.

Here's a look at the chances each actually happens.

Buffalo Bills (2-0)

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Bills QB Josh Allen

The Buffalo Bills are the easiest call on this list. And team for whom just making the playoffs would be viewed s a massive disappointment. It's Super Bowl or bust in Western New York this year.

We're just two games into the Joe Brady era, but based on early returns the Bills look like the class of the AFC, Only the Kansas City Chiefs are averaging more yards per game. The Bills are averaging a ridiculous 38.5 points per game. Quarterback Josh Allen looks like the early front-runner for MVP.

There is a potential problem looming though—the Bills are 28th in total defense and 30th against the pass.

That could be a problem in the postseason. But right now, it's just about impossible to imagine Buffalo not getting there.

Playoff Chances: 99 Percent

Cincinnati Bengals (2-0)

AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase

This is something of a make-or-break season for Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.

So far, the Bengals are doing a lot more making than breaking.

The Cincinnati offense is choked with talent. Burrow. Wide receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Running back Chase Brown. But so far this season, it's the team's new-look defense that has been the story.

Last week against the Houston Texans, the Bengals gave up yards aplenty—374 to be precise. What they didn't give up is points—when the Texans got close, the Bengals stiffened, and Houston finished the game with just six points.

If the Cincinnati defense plays at anywhere near the level we have seen from the offense in recent years, this team could do more than just make the postseason.

The Bengals can make it all the way to Los Angeles and Super Bowl LXI.

Playoff Chances: 80 Percent

Houston Texans (0-2)

AP Photo/Ashley Landis

Texans EDGE Will Anderson Jr.

Last year, 10 teams started the season 0-2. Three of those teams went on to make the postseason—the Carolina Panthers, the Chicago Bears—and the Houston Texans. It marked the second time in the last three years that Houston started the season with consecutive losses but made the playoffs.

Apparently the Texans like to make things interesting.

Houston is moving the ball—the Texans are ninth in the NFL in total offense. But the team isn't finishing drives, and a defense that was expected to be among the league's best is off to a slow start.

The Texans need to be more efficient on offense. The offensive line has to get better. And the Houston defense needs to get untracked.

But playing in a division where only one team has a win, it's too early to count the Texans out.

Playoff Chances: 35 Percent

Indianapolis Colts (0-2)

AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann

Colts QB Daniel Jones

When the Indianapolis Colts hit the bye week last year, the team was 8-2 and one of the NFL's biggest surprises.

The Colts haven't won a regular season game since—last week's overtime loss in Kansas City was Indy's ninth in a row.

The team at least showed some signs of life at Arrowhead after getting blasted by the ravens in Week 1, but there are major problems on both sides of the ball. No. 1 wide receiver Alec Pierce is out indefinitely with a foot injury. Someone forgot to tell the defense that the season started—the Colts have allowed 74 points in two games.

Playing in a soft AFC South helps, but the Colts have shown little so far to indicate that a big-time rebound is in the offing.

Playoff Chances: 18 Percent

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)

AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Chiefs RB Kenneth Walker III

After last year's 6-11 faceplant, the Kansas City Chiefs entered the 2026 season under a cloud of uncertainty—something that has been exceedingly rare over the past decade-plus.

If the first two weeks of the season are any indication, that uncertainty was unwarranted—and the Chiefs are "back."

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is showing no ill effects from the ACL tear that ended his 2025 campaign. Tight end Travis Kelce looks closer to 27 than 37. Running back Kenneth Walker III has been a revelation in his first year with the team.

The Chiefs admittedly play in arguably the NFL's toughest division. But Kansas City is first in the NFL in total offense. Second in total defense. And as battle-tested as any team in the NFL.

The Chiefs are back, baby.

Playoff Chances: 90 Percent

Las Vegas Raiders (2-0)

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty

There isn't a more surprising undefeated team in the NFL right now than the Las Vegas Raiders. Beating the hapless Dolphins in the opener was one thing. Knocking off the Chargers in Los Angeles last week is another.

This was supposed to be a team in the opening stages of a rebuild breaking in a rookie quarterback. Instead, veteran stopgap Kirk Cousins has three touchdown passes in each of his first two starts. Running back Ashton Jeanty is averaging over 100 total yards per game. And a defense that was overhauled in the offseason is allowing less than 14 points per game.

Will this success be sustainable? Probably not—the schedule is about to get a lot more daunting.

But for a long-suffering fanbase starved for success, this hot start has to feel good.

Playoff Chances: 20 Percent

Los Angeles Chargers (0-2)

AP Photo/Kyusung Gong

Chargers QB Justin Herbert

The Los Angeles Chargers were supposed to be contenders in the AFC West this year.

Instead, two weeks into the season the Chargers are cooked.

It's not just that the Bolts lost their first two games. It's that the Chargers lost both games at home by double-digits to a pair of teams that picked in the top-three of April's draft. Tomato cans.

An offense that was supposed to take off under new coordinator Mike McDaniel crashed on the runway. The defense has regressed with Jesse Minter gone. The Chargers are turning the ball over. Committing far too many penalties. Quarterback Justin Herbert is playing the worst football of his career.

Simply put, the Chargers are a mess. And with a brutal stretch on the schedule starting this week in Buffalo, the Chargers might as well get comfortable in the AFC West cellar.

They aren't leaving it.

Playoff Chances: 10 Percent

Miami Dolphins (0-2)

AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn

Dolphins QB Malik Willis

Credit where it's due. When the Miami Dolphins decide they want to be bad, they don't mess around.

It was hardly a state secret that the Dolphins were going to struggle after an offseason roster purge. The offense has no passing-game weapons. The defense is a who's who of "who?"

But the Dolphins have exceeded suckspectations. Two weeks in, Miami is 27th in total offense, 30th in scoring offense and 30th in scoring defense. The Dolphins hve been outscored 62-26 and have been competitive for about five minutes.

It's not like there's something that can be pointed to as a potential springboard back to respectability, either. The Dolphins are the most talent-deficient team in the league.

From all indications that was by design. The Dolphins have hit the rest button and are looking ahead to 2027.

That's going to make 2026 hard to watch.

Playoff Chances: 0 Percent

Minnesota Vikings (2-0)

AP Photo/Frank Franklin II

Vikings EDGE Dallas Turner

Of the NFL's undefeated teams, the Minnesota Vikings are the most difficult to get a read on.

To their credit, the Vikings have shown resilience in coming back at home against the Green Bay Packers and winning on the road in terrible weather against the Chicago Bears. Brian Flores' defense has been aggressive and tenacious, ranking fourth in the league in points allowed.

But there are questions on offense. Can quarterback Kyler Murray keep up the momentum that Carson Wentz built after Murray suffered a concussion early in that Week 1 win over the Pack? Can a backfield that has been hit hard by injuries hold up?

It's far too early to anoint the Vikings a Super Bowl contender. Or even the class of the NFC North. But back-to-back division wins over 2025 playoff teams can't be ignored, and Minnesota's defense is going to keep them in a lot of games.

Playoff Chances: 65 Percent

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0)

AP Photo/George Walker IV

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts

When the season began, it appeared that the NFC East was going to be a lot more competitive than it was in 2025.

Two weeks in, it will be a huge upset if the Philadelphia Eagles don't win the division for the fourth time in the last five seasons. The Dallas Cowboys can't play defense—again. The New York Giants and Washington Commanders both watched their starting quarterback go down with a major injury last week.

It's not that the Eagles don't have issues of their own. The offense has been inconsistent to this point in the season. An Eagles pass rush that is perennially among the NFL's best has struggled to generate pressure, with just three sacks over the season's first two games.

Still, the Eagles have a much better defense than the Cowboys, and the Commanders and Giants are toast.

The division is theirs for the taking.

Playoff Chances: 90 Percent

San Francisco 49ers (2-0)

AP Photo/Jed Jacosbohn

49ers QB Brock Purdy

The San Francisco 49ers are rolling.

The argument can be made that no team in the NFL has looked more impressive over the first two weeks of the season. After rolling the rival Rams in Australia, the 49ers blasted the Miami Dolphins. The Niners have outscored their two opponents 62-20.

Brock Purdy is playing as well as any quarterback in the game—he's completing over 80 percent of his passes and has five touchdown passes against just one interception. The San Francisco defense is 10th in yards allowed and third in points allowed.

The schedule moving forward is favorable—four of San Francisco's next six opponents missed the playoffs in 2025. If San Francisco can take down the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 5, they can take control of the NFC West.

Injuries seemingly constantly loom over the 49ers. But that's the only thing that could keep this team out of the postseason.

Playoff Chances: 85 Percent

Seattle Seahawks (2-0)

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

When the Seattle Seahawks lost quarterback Sam Darnold just a handful of snaps into the season-opener, it looked like the defending champs might be in trouble.

Someone forgot to tell the Seahawks.

Seattle squeaked past the New England Patriots in a defensive battle in Week 1 before blasting the Arizona Cardinals last week. Their recipe for success has been similar to last year—a healthy dose of the run game, the heroics of wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and one of the best defenses in the game.

Darnold could play this week against the reeling Commanders, but even if he sits Drew Lock has shown he can hold down the fort until Darnold's back. With the winless Chargers coming after that, Seattle will likely be undefeated when the 49ers come to visit for an important early showdown in Week 5.

Playoff Chances: 90 Percent

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2)

AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield

When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers gave Baker Mayfield an extension averaging $55 million a season, this wasn't what they had in mind.

After losing to the Cleveland Browns at home last week, the Buccaneers have dropped nine of their last 11 regular season games. Not much is working for the team right now—Mayfield is averaging less than 200 passing yards a game and has just one touchdown pass, and the Buccaneers defense sits 26th in the league in points allowed.

With that said, it's not a huge stretch to say that the Buccaneers are better than how they have looked so far this year, and it only took eight wins to capture the NFC South last year.

The Buccaneers aren't dead. But if Tampa falls at home to the Vikings this week, the team is going to be in serious trouble.

Playoff Chances: 30 Percent

Tennessee Titans (0-2)

AP Photo/George Walker IV

Titans QB Cam Ward

When the Tennessee Titans hired Robert Saleh as head coach, he was supposed to make a team that is 6-28 the past two years more competitive.

Yeah, about that.

Granted, the Titans gave the Philadelphia Eagles a game last week. But the result was all too familiar—another defeat. The Titans defense has allowed 354 yards per game—ninth-most in the league. The Tennessee offense is atrocious once again—no team in the AFC has amassed fewer yards per game. The Titans are rushing for just 95 yards per game and are 30th in passing.

It's that offense that is the real problem. Quarterback Cam Ward has shown little development since being drafted first overall, and while Titans have some passing-game weapons they are of little use if the quarterback can't get them the ball.

The Titans are the worst team in a bad division. And they aren't going anywhere.

Playoff Chances: 3 Percent

Washington Commanders (0-2)

AP Photo/Jessica Tobias

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin

With each passing week, it looks more and more likely the Washington Commanders' run to the NFC Championship Game in 2024 was a fluke—and less and less likely that the team will get anywhere near that contest any time soon.

The biggest reason for that is glaringly obvious—quarterback Jayden Daniels can't stay on the field. The 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year dislocated his elbow (again) in last week's lopsided loss to the Dallas Cowboys. And when Daniels suffered a similar injury last season, he took the entire Commanders offense with him.

The defense isn't helping matters either. Last year, Washington fielded the league's worst defense in terms of yards allowed. This year, the Commanders are one of six teams surrendering over 30 points per game.

Take a bad offense, mix in a bad defense and you have the recipe for head coach Dan Quinn getting fired.

Playoff Chances: 6 Percent