Bears Insider Rips 'Lazy' Narrative That Caleb Williams, Team Will Regress, 'We'll Use It For Fuel'

The Chicago Bears aren't entertaining any notion regarding potential regression following their successful 2025 season.

One person with the Bears told The Athletic's Jonathan Jones the regression narrative is "lazy" and "we'll use it for fuel" as the team gets ready to start the 2026 season.

"I think it's lazy," the Bears source told Jones. "You see interceptions and say, 'You can't do that again.' Fourth-quarter comebacks and say, 'They can't come back.' And you're ignoring all the space in between that can be improved. We use it for fuel more than anything."

Regression is clearly something that has been a frequent topic of discussion in the Bears' building. Head coach Ben Johnson mentioned it early in training camp.

"Well, we're the No. 1 regression candidate so ... I think we've got plenty of motivation ourselves," Johnson said on July 31. "We talked about [quarterback] Caleb [Williams] in the past. He's used to handling a lot of attention, so I'm not worried about that."

It is hard not to look at the ways Chicago managed to get to 11 wins last season without thinking its not a sustainable model.

Seven of their 11 victories were in one-score games, with six coming when the Bears scored inside the final two minutes of regulation or in overtime. Their defense ranked 19th in EPA per play, a number that is propped up by forcing an NFL-high 23 interceptions. They also led the league with a plus-22 turnover differential.

That combination of turnover luck and late-game heroics are the perfect formula for negative year-over-year regression.

Per ESPN's Bill Barnwell, of the 21 teams excluding the 2025 Bears that have recorded a turnover margin of at least plus-20 since 1990, 20 of them won fewer games the year after and their average turnover margin was only plus-three.

There are ways for the Bears to negate the expected regression, though they didn't do much to improve their defense in the offseason. Coby Bryant, who was one of their big free-agent additions, will miss most of the season due to a knee injury that required surgery.

Rookie safety Dillon Thieneman, the No. 25 overall pick, is arguably the biggest addition to the defense.

On the offensive side of the ball, Caleb Williams taking another step forward would be huge. His down-to-down consistency, in particular, will be a point of emphasis. His 58.1 completion percentage in 2025 ranked 32nd out of 33 qualified quarterbacks.

Another hurdle facing the Bears is playing in arguably the deepest division in the NFL with the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. All four teams in the NFC North finished over .500 last season.

The Bears will begin their quest to prove all the doubters and skeptics wrong on Sunday when they take on the Carolina Panthers in the season opener for both teams.