8 Players Who Will Make or Break Fantasy Football Rosters in 2026

With less than two weeks remaining before the 2026 NFL season kicks off, fantasy managers have two major draft weekends left before the New England Patriots visit the Seattle Seahawks on September 9.

It's time to move on from last season's championship win and time to relegate that 2-12 campaign from a year ago to the dustbin of history.

As always, the first step toward fantasy glory is having a successful draft.

Success on draft day is about finding value and avoiding busts: selecting players who can outperform their ADP while steering clear of those unlikely to justify their cost. Getting those decisions right can make a fantasy season; getting them wrong can just as easily derail one.

QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

ADP: QB10

That quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars are available as late as they are goes a long way toward explaining why so many veteran fantasy drafters play chicken at the position and wait to select a starter.

Last year, Lawrence topped 4,000 passing yards, threw a career-high 29 touchdown passes, added nine scores on the ground and finished the season fourth in fantasy points among quarterbacks.

Perhaps even more importantly, Lawrence was the highest-scoring fantasy signal-caller down the stretch last season, as Andy Smith noted for RotoBaller:

"From Weeks 12 through 18, Lawrence averaged an elite 29.5 PPR points per game while scoring 22 touchdowns (18 through the air) and averaging 265.1 passing yards per game. During this stretch, Lawrence was the QB1 by a wide margin, sitting nearly four points per game above Josh Allen. In terms of passing scores, Lawrence's 18 trailed only Matthew Stafford by one, but his 22 total TDs led the position. As the season progressed, Lawrence showed significant development under the Liam Coen system. Now with a full season under his belt, Lawrence could very well maintain this pace over the course of a full season."

Projecting Lawrence to be the No. 1 quarterback overall may be a reach—those nine rushing touchdowns aren't going to be easy to duplicate. But he is playing in a loaded offense for a coach who has produced top-five fantasy quarterbacks in back-to-back years.

Who's up for three in a row?

QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

AP Photo/Tanner Pearson

ADP: QB3

There's no question that Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals is a fantastic NFL quarterback.

Just two years ago, he led the league in pass attempts, completions, passing yards and passing touchdowns. He has arguably the best one-two punch at wide receiver in the league in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Burrow told reporters he has one goal this year—to get back to the Super Bowl:

"I'm trying to put it out in the world; I'm trying to manifest it. I'm trying to show our guys the urgency that I have, and that I want us to have as an organization to go and make it happen. You can keep pushing it down the road, or you can talk about it now and say this is the year. I'm tired of saying next year, next year, next year. This is it."

However, while Burrow has his sights set on a championship, he's not leading fantasy teams to one.

For starters, his injury history is a material concern. In six NFL seasons, he has missed at least six games three times, including over half the 2025 campaign. Cincinnati's offensive line is generally regarded as below-average, which doesn't help his chances of staying healthy.

Burrow offers limited rushing production, which raises the bar for his passing output at his current ADP. To return value, he likely will need to approach the elite passing production that made him the QB2 in fantasy points two seasons ago.

At his QB3 ADP, Burrow carries a price premium over Dak Prescott despite offering a similar fantasy profile.

RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

AP Photo/Rusty Jones

ADP: RB15

Kyren Williams of the Los Angeles Rams is one of the more polarizing running backs in fantasy football in 2026.

Quite a few fantasy managers are skeptical that he can log another top-10 season, largely due to the emergence of Blake Corum over the second half of last year. In 2024, Williams logged 350 touches. Last year, that number dropped to 295.

However, there are also proponents of Williams like Jason Wood of Footballguys who counter that an increase in the quality of his touches more than compensates for a dip in quality:

"Williams is a classic case of market fatigue. Concerns over Blake Corum eating into Williams' value ignore the data: Corum's slight volume uptick in 2025 simply absorbed the snaps of fringe backups, while Williams delivered another top-8 fantasy campaign. With contract security, McVay's preference for a main back, and continued ownership of high-value touches, Williams is a fine selection at cost. He is a reliable starter who delivers steady RB1 production without requiring premium early-round draft capital."

I remain optimistic about Williams.

He had more scrimmage yards (1,553) in fewer touches last year. He has over 1,100 rushing yards in three straight seasons. At least 13 touchdowns in three straight seasons. Top-10 PPR numbers in three straight seasons, and he tied a career-high with 5.2 yards per touch a year ago.

He's a fantastic draft-day target in Round 3 for managers who snag a pair of elite wide receivers in the first couple of rounds.

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Stephen Brashear

ADP: RB3

Last year, Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers topped 2,000 total yards for the third time in his professional career. He topped 100 receptions for the third time in his career. No running back had more PPR points.

However, he also led all running backs with 413 total touches, so when he missed practice time recently some fantasy drafters started to rethink their strategy.

However, McCaffrey told reporters that the rest was all part of the plan to keep him fresh throughout the season:

"Obviously when you don't practice, the way the media works now, is a firestorm. This was kind of part of the plan from the jump—to ramp up pretty big, get nine or 10 practices in, kind of come back down and then ramp up again so we're fresh for the duration. "Sometimes I can probably be my own worst enemy in how much I love being out there. I want to run, I want to go. I want every play, I'm a competitor, I love it and I think when you have people smarter than you, that understand not just what you've been through, but what we plan on doing this season."

Fantasy managers should be concerned.

McCaffrey enters his age-30 season after handling 413 touches and surpassing 2,000 yards in 2025—an unusually demanding workload. He also missed 14 games in the seasons immediately following his two previous 2,000-yard campaigns, underscoring the durability risk at his current ADP.

As Footballguys noted, he is a leading candidate to disappoint fantasy managers in 2026.

WR Jaylen Waddle, Denver Broncos

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

ADP: WR21

No wide receiver in fantasy football is a bigger target for this writer than Denver Broncos wideout Jaylen Waddle.

And that was the case before this happened in the preseason:

Waddle was acquired by the Broncos in an offseason trade, and Adam Pfeifer of A Fantasy Life expects the sixth-year veteran to be a big part of the offense in Denver:

"There should also be a serious uptick in pass volume headed Waddle's way. This past season, despite claiming one of the elite defenses in football, the Broncos continued to rely on the pass. Denver ranked third in football in dropback rate over expected last season (4%), while their 57.8% neutral script pass rate since 2023 is the seventh-highest mark in the league. Quarterback Bo Nix led the NFL in pass attempts a season ago with 612, averaging 36 per contest. Stout defense or not, the Broncos want to throw the football. And my guess? They want to throw it to Waddle. A lot."

As a rookie in 2021, Waddle caught 104 passes. He followed that with 1,356 receiving yards in 2022 and led the NFL with 18.1 yards per reception.

The 27-year-old is going to be the No. 1 wideout in Denver this year. Career highs in receptions and receiving yards are in play, and he is going to be a top-10 fantasy option.

And with an ADP in the middle of Round 4, Waddle is going to win people leagues in 2026.

WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Mike Stewart

ADP: WR8

For the most part, the top 10 wideouts in fantasy drafts are a relatively safe lot. They may not finish in the order they are drafted, but the bust risk with elite pass-catchers is relatively low.

With one exception.

This isn't about Drake London as a player—the fifth-year veteran was fourth in PPR points among receivers in 2024 and eighth in PPR points per game last year.

However, there's likely to be a new quarterback in Atlanta this year (at least to start)—and that's a problem, according to Matt LaMarca of Fantasy Labs:

"While Tagovailoa may well end up being an upgrade for the Falcons overall, it's possible that it's a significant downgrade for London specifically. Tagovailoa doesn't have the same caliber of arm, so he's going to have to rely on short-to-intermediate throws. We saw that in his preseason debut, where four of his five pass attempts were directed towards Kyle Pitts. In addition to Pitts, London also has to share the field with one of the best running backs in football. Bijan Robinson can do it all. He's obviously a major threat on the ground, but he's also a phenomenal pass-catcher. He posted a 20% target share, which was tied for the second-highest mark at running back last year."

That target share matched De'Von Achane's in Miami last season. Tagovailoa's quick-release, short-to-intermediate passing profile may not maximize London's downfield skill set.

If the Falcons rush Michael Penix Jr. back from an ACL tear, as has been speculated, that would help, but it carries issues of its own given the quarterback was only just cleared to practice fully.

Also, while London is immensely talented, he has also surpassed 1,000 yards just once in four years.

London isn't going to vanish, but he is unlikely to finish as a top-10 fantasy receiver in 2026.

TE Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints

AP Photo/Danny Karnik

ADP: TE16

Fantasy drafters essentially have three options at tight end this season: pay a premium for an elite option such as Las Vegas Raiders star Brock Bowers; wait for a Tier 2 player such as Atlanta's Kyle Pitts; or fade the position and target a late-round upside play.

If the third option sounds like your speed, then Juwan Johnson of the Saints should be on your target list.

Johnson is all but an afterthought in drafts this year, with an ADP in Round 12. But with rookie wide receiver Jordyn Tyson set to miss a chunk of the regular season, Brad Evans of The Athletic sees a path to top-five fantasy numbers for Johnson in 2026:

"The loss of Jordan Tyson for likely the first several weeks of the season is a swift midsection kick to a Saints offense that was moving in a positive direction. End-zone spikes have been infrequent for Johnson the past three years, but coming off career highs in receptions (77) and receiving yards (889), he shouldn't be overlooked. Keep in mind he also finished in the top seven at the position in air yards, yards after catch and expected fantasy points per game. With his target share likely to climb, he's sure to turn a tidy profit."

Those receptions and receiving yards both ranked inside the top five at the position, and from Week 10 on last year, he was seventh in PPR points per game among tight ends.

That's a bargain. Tack on another touchdown or three, and Johnson's a steal.

TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

AP Photo/Ryan Sun

ADP: TE6

Every year in fantasy, there are players whose ADP befuddles me.

This year, Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta is one of those players.

Yes, LaPorta is capable of posting elite fantasy numbers. As a rookie in 2023, he was targeted 120 times, catching 86 passes for 889 yards and 10 scores on the way to the top spot among fantasy tight ends.

In the two years since, though, the 25-year-old has 132 targets and 10 touchdowns.

That was partly due to injury, but as C.H. Herms noted for FTN, it's also because LaPorta plays in arguably the most crowded passing attack in the league:

"The Detroit Lions have several mouths to feed. It's an incredibly busy pride. LaPorta is great, sure, but so is Amon-Ra St. Brown. Speedster Jameson Williams is also probably going to have some hefty involvement after soaring to a career-high 95.2% route share last season. Hell, the Motor City maniacs just gave running back Jahmyr Gibbs a bag and a half to be the highest-paid running back per annual dough in the entire NFL! A very crowded scene, indeed."

For as talented as LaPorta is, he's at best the No. 3 option in Detroit's passing game. Injuries have been an issue each of the past two years, including eight missed games in 2025. A hip injury has already limited him over the summer.

LaPorta isn't a terrible pick—all the Tier 2 tight ends carry questions—but he's being drafted at his ceiling.

Drafting at ceiling is how fantasy seasons get broken.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.