8 Players Who Will Make or Break Fantasy Rosters in 2026

NFL training camps are in full swing, and the first full slate of preseason games will kick off in a few days. Before you know it, it will be September 9 and the New England Patriots will be facing the Seahawks in Seattle to open the 2026 regular season.

And that means fantasy draft season is upon us.

It's a time of great hope and optimism for fantasy managers—no matter how the 2025 season played out, everyone is 0-0 now. But it's a time of great pressure as well. As the old saying goes: "You can't win your league on draft day, but you can lose it."

Having success on draft day is all about finding values—players who will outperform their asking price in the season to come. But they also have to avoid players who won't come close to living up to their draft-day price tag.

Essentially, drafters need to target players who will make the upcoming season, while steering clear of players who could break it.

This article identifies players who could offer value and those carrying significant downside.

Make: QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

ADP: QB10

Trevor Lawrence's first four NFL seasons were inconsistent, with 2024 being the low point. He missed seven games then, barely cleared 2,000 passing yards and threw just 11 touchdown passes.

They were not the numbers the Jaguars hoped for when they gave their quarterback a five-year, $275 million contract extension.

However, with the arrival of head coach Liam Coen in Duval County, the lightbulb appeared to come on for Lawrence.

And as Pat Fitzmaurice noted at Fantasy Pros, once Lawrence got comfortable in Coen's offense his numbers last year took off:

"Over his first 10 games of 2025, Lawrence averaged 215.1 passing yards, 1.1 touchdown passes and 16.7 fantasy points per game. He averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt over that span, and his passer rating was 79.4. Over his last seven regular-season games, Lawrence averaged 265.1 passing yards, 2.6 touchdown passes and 26.3 fantasy points per game. He averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt over those seven games, and his passer rating was 108.6. Lawrence was the fantasy QB1 over that span. Lawrence also had his best season as a runner, establishing career highs in attempts (82), yards (359) and touchdowns (nine)."

Those rushing touchdowns admittedly aren't sustainable. Still, Lawrence appears far more comfortable in Liam Coen's offense, and the Jaguars boast one of the NFL's deepest receiving corps with Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers.

Lawrence was fourth in fantasy points among quarterbacks last year, and he has a legitimate shot to back up that top-five fantasy finish in 2026.

Break: QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

AP Photo/Nick Wass

ADP: QB5

There were already warning signs surrounding Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels. He was fantastic as a rookie on the way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, but his sophomore season was an injury-marred mess.

And while those injuries played a role in Daniels' disappointing 2025 campaign, his drop-off in passing last year was still disquieting, according to Derek Brown of Fantasy Pros:

"With all of the injuries he sustained last year, his stats are a muddied mess that are better off tossed in the trash, but for the sake of doing my due diligence among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 42nd in highly accurate throw rate, 38th in catchable target rate, and 25th in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Daniels has plenty of questions that he'll have to answer in 2026. Can he hold up for an entire season? Was his rookie season just a flash in the pan?"

The recent arrival of veteran wide receiver Stefon Diggs appeared to be good news for Daniels' prospects of a rebound season, but the good news didn't last long. Commanders left tackle Laremy Tunsil tore his triceps tendon Saturday and could be sidelined for the entire regular season.

Washington's offensive line was already ranked in the bottom half of the league before Tunsil went down. Now, with his blindside protector on the shelf, the slight-framed (6'4", 210 pounds) Daniels will be playing behind one of the shakier lines in the league.

Expecting Daniels to finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback again in 2026 is overly optimistic given his 2025 regression, injury history and Washington's offensive-line concerns.

Make: RB Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys

AP Photo/Ryan Sun

ADP: RB17

Javonte Williams' first four seasons in Denver were mostly disappointing. After a promising rookie campaign, injuries and mediocre play became a theme for the 26-year-old.

By the time he signed a one-year deal to join the Cowboys in free agency, most assumed his days of fantasy relevance were over.

But Williams exploded last year in Dallas to the tune of over 1,200 rushing yards, 11 scores on the ground, a career-high 4.8 yards per carry and top-12 fantasy numbers in PPR points.

Despite that big season, fantasy drafters appear to still be a bit skeptical of Williams' ability to back last season up.

And Jason Wood of Footballguys believes those wary drafters are passing up an opportunity for value:

"This year, fantasy managers are repeating the mistake by letting him slide to RB17. We project him to finish much closer to the true RB1 tier. There is virtually no downside concerning his role, supporting cast, or scheme. Dallas brought in zero competition for touches, and the core of last year's elite offense remains fully intact. As long as he stays healthy, Williams should push for high-end RB2 numbers with a well-defined path to an RB1 ceiling, all while coming at a mid-to-low RB2 draft day cost."

Williams should at least see the 287 touches he received last season, and a 300-touch campaign is well within reach. If you're the type of manager who likes to hammer wide receivers early, he is a gift late in Round 3.

Break: RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Stephen Brashear

ADP: RB3

Christian McCaffrey's workload creates significant downside risk at his current RB3 ADP. He handled a career-high 413 touches during the 2025 regular season and 450 including the playoffs, a volume that raises durability concerns for a 30-year-old running back.

That risk has led me to identify McCaffrey as one of fantasy football's most likely high-profile disappointments in 2026.

Even McCaffrey conceded his 450 touches last year (including the playoffs) were a lot. But he said the team has a plan to keep him healthy in 2026:

"Is it hard to get 450 touches a year and practice Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, full speed? Yes. It's much easier to do it when you don't practice Wednesdays, and that's your re-gen day, and that's your day where you're getting your lift in and you're getting everything activated. It gives you a full extra day of rest. And by the way, I've seen guys get injured in the first quarter after three touches."

McCaffrey's workload is only part of the concern. His 413 regular-season touches place him in the range examined by "The Curse of 370," while he is also entering his age-30 season—a stage at which running backs rarely follow an elite, high-volume campaign with comparable production.

His recent history underscores the risk. He surpassed 2,000 scrimmage yards in both 2019 and 2023, but he missed 13 games in each of the following seasons, 2020 and 2024.

Given that workload, age and injury history, drafting McCaffrey in Round 1 carries substantial downside.

Make: WR Jaylen Waddle, Denver Broncos

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

ADP: WR21

After five seasons in Miami, Jaylen Waddle has a new home in 2026 after being traded to the Denver Broncos in the offseason.

However, that change of scenery has done little to boost his draft stock. After finishing just inside the top-25 fantasy wideouts in PPR points a year ago, he is being drafted in virtually the same spot in 2026.

Per Matt Okada of NFL.com, fantasy managers are missing out on an opportunity for value with Waddle in the Mile High City:

"He saw 100 or more targets in four of his five seasons in Miami, topping 70 receptions and 1,000 yards three times, with his best fantasy performance (WR8) coming in 2022. After being traded to Denver in the offseason, Waddle provides Sean Payton and Bo Nix a reliable, high-volume receiver to round out the offense. He offers the speed and run-after-catch ability that Courtland Sutton lacks. It might sound hyperbolic, but I'm getting get some Drew Brees-Michael Thomas vibes from Payton's days in New Orleans. I'm not guaranteeing 149 catches from Waddle, but low-end WR2 feels like his floor in PPR leagues, and he has legitimate top-12 upside."

The Broncos didn't send a first-round pick to Miami for Waddle to be a complementary option for the Broncos; he was acquired to take Denver's passing game to the next level.

If you are the type of fantasy manager who still prioritizes running backs early in drafts, then Waddle should be on your radar in Round 4.

Break: WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

AP Photo/Gareth Patterson

ADP: WR11

On some level, it's not hard to see why fantasy drafters are so enamored with Rashee Rice of the Kansas City Chiefs.

When he has been on the field the past two years, he has been highly productive, averaging 6.4 receptions and 71.6 receiving yards per game. Over a full 17-game season, that equates to 109 catches for over 1,200 yards.

If healthy, Rice projects to be one of the Chiefs' primary receiving options this year.

Rice's availability is the central concern. He played just four games in 2024 before suffering a knee injury, then opened last season with a six-game NFL suspension related to his role in a 2024 Dallas multivehicle crash that left several people injured.

Earlier this year, Rice served 30 days in jail after a judge found he had violated probation, according to Nate Taylor and Michael Rothstein of ESPN. He also underwent a cleanup procedure on his injured knee, while Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is working his way back from the ACL tear he suffered late last season.

Despite those variables, the 26-year-old is being drafted at WR11. That price assumes a full return to form—and perhaps a level of production he has yet to sustain over an entire season.

Rice has undeniable upside, but his current ADP leaves little room for setbacks. Paying a premium for that projection is a risky proposition in fantasy drafts.

Make: TE Isaiah Likely, New York Giants

AP Photo/Chris Carlson

ADP: TE11

After four seasons as Mark Andrews' understudy in Baltimore, Isaiah Likely signed a lucrative contract to follow John Harbaugh to New York.

While speaking to reporters, Likely said he intends to show he can be a versatile offensive weapon for his new team.

"I can line up outside, in the slot, in-line, in the backfield, I've done it all," he said. "I've called myself a chess piece before in the past, and I feel like I've lived up to the name."

Per Connor Hughes of SNY, if early camp practices are any indication, that's what the Giants have in mind as well:

"Likely is more of a utility weapon than a traditional tight end. The Giants move him throughout the formation, and he has displayed clear early chemistry with Dart. Likely attacks all three levels of the defense, and the Giants appear intent on featuring him. You hope a receiver steps up. In the meantime, Likely appears to be the No. 2 option behind (Malik) Nabers."

Likely wasn't used a lot by the Ravens—just nine career games with five or more targets. But in those nine games, he was highly productive, with 51 catches for 642 yards and five touchdowns.

Nabers is working his way back from an ACL tear, and while early reports regarding his status have been mostly positive, it could still be a while before the young receiver is 100 percent.

That could open the door for Likely to be the top option in the New York passing attack—and for the 26-year-old to be a huge value for fantasy managers in 2026.

Break: TE Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

ADP: TE8

Cleveland Browns tight end Harold Fannin Jr. was a revelation for fantasy managers last year.

An afterthought on draft day in 2025, he went on to lead the Browns in every receiving category on the way to a sixth-place finish in PPR points among tight ends.

To be fair, there are fantasy pundits such as Zachary Krueger of NBC Sports who believe Fannin can actually build on his rookie success:

"Fannin quickly made a name for himself as one of the top young tight ends in the league last season. In addition to the overall volume and receiving line (72-731-6), Fannin was legitimately dominant. Among tight ends with 50-plus targets, his 0.247 targets per route run narrowly edged out Trey McBride for the highest TPRR at the position. He also ranked eighth in YPRR (1.68) and YAC/REC (4.9) while forcing a missed tackle on 30.6 percent of his receptions; an impressive mark that led all tight ends by a wide margin."

However, while Fannin is a talented player, the situation around him is less favorable than last year. There's a new coaching staff. A pair of new wide receivers in rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. And Deshaun Watson is likely to open 2026 as the starting quarterback in Cleveland.

Fannin's 107 targets in 2025 aren't going to be easy to duplicate this year, not with all those things working against him.

It's more likely he finishes outside the top 10 than inside the top five.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.