Biggest NASCAR Storylines to Watch Ahead of Sprint Cup Series at Michigan
And then there were four (races).
After Joey Logano caught a fuel-less Kevin Harvick on the road course at The Glen, the Sprint Cup Series heads to a more traditional race track: Michigan International Speedway for the Pure Michigan 400.
The last time the drivers kicked it at Michigan, Kurt Busch won after rain swamped the spring race. One Busch leads to another. Kyle Busch, at long last, cracked the top 30 and that grants him access—albeit tentatively—to the 16-driver Chase.
Eleven drivers have won races leaving five winless spots open on the Chase Grid. Jeff Gordon, 0-for-2015, won this race a year ago. A win here will guarantee him a bid in the Chase. The true wild card remains for drivers outside the Grid who can win and thus displace drivers on the fringe.
It’s pure. It’s Michigan. It’s the Pure Michigan 400. Read on for this week’s storylines.
Will Michigan Be a 'Drag?'
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In a word, yes, Michigan will be a drag.
Michigan International Speedway adopts a high-drag rules package the likes of which debuted at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Kyle Busch won the Brickyard 400, but it was a rather lackluster renewal of the second most iconic race on the NASCAR calendar.
The rules were originally designed for Michigan and subsequently implemented at Indy. It was a square peg in a round hole combination at the Brickyard, but at Michigan it could be the right recipe for a better product.
“I can promise you if you get in the corner behind somebody it's going to be a white knuckle experience," Gordon said in Kenny Bruce’s NASCAR.com story. "It was at Indy so I know it's really going to be one at Michigan. You are going to be really searching for clean air."
The width of the track should allow drivers to create some draft and momentum down the straightaways and, as Gordon noted, havoc in the corners.
It’s an extra layer of uncertainty as the pressure gets tighter and tighter.
Gordon Defends His Title
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In 2014, Gordon struggled with restarts (until late in the season). In 2015, he can’t even get started, but this isn’t news.
When he won a year ago at Michigan, he catapulted himself to Victory Lane with a strong restart, eventually holding off Harvick, king of second place.
"I thought he had a good start, but I had one, too," Gordon said after last year’s race, according to NASCAR.com's Scott Held. "It's pretty nice to have the last two wins come down to restarts. Those restarts are so crucial but also intense because of the speed we're carrying here."
Gordon, with 620 points, has now dropped to 14th in the Chase Grid with the addition of Kyle Busch to the Chase eligibles. He’s seven points up on Ryan Newman and eight up on Clint Bowyer.
A win by someone off the Grid would bump Gordon down to 15th or lower if he has another day like he did at The Glen. He finished 41st there and dropped two spots in the standings.
Kyle Busch Is in the Chase...for Now
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Kyle Busch, at long last, cracked the top 30 with his runner-up performance in the Cheez-It 355 at The Glen.
It’s been an amazing run for Busch to get into the top 30. He won four races, including three in a row at one point. Despite this Herculean run up the standings, Busch isn’t safe yet.
Busch has 361 points, just six more than Cole Whitt in 31st. In three career races at Michigan, Whitt has an average finish of 28.3, so he doesn’t appear to be a threat to Busch. Busch's No. 18 car, however, could be its worst enemy while trying to hold on to 30th or better.
Back in the spring race, Busch’s fourth race back from his injuries, he finished 43rd after crashing. A repeat will lose vital points and his grip on the Chase.
Busch has one win and four top fives at MIS, so if he stays out of trouble he should maintain his grip on the Grid.
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Kasey Kahne Is in Serious Danger of Missing the Chase
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For the first time all season, Kasey Kahne has fallen outside of the Chase Grid, and it doesn’t look like he’ll get back in it.
There’s no way to sugarcoat Kahne in 2015. His last six races shook out as follows: 32nd, 27th, 19th, 24th, 43rd and 42nd. He’s finished ahead of just one driver in the past two races.
"At this rate we're going to need to win, that's the only way we'll go into the Chase,” Kahne said per SBNation.com's Jordan Bianchi. "I don't know what my deal is. But we've got to get a little better. I need to get a little better."
He nailed it: He needs to win. That’s what he did late last year at Atlanta, winning in the penultimate race of the regular season, leading 25 laps en route to a berth in the Chase.
Kahne has one win and eight top fives at Michigan, so the time is now to turn around the No. 5 Chevy.
Will a Winless Driver Crash the Chase Grid?
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Should the five winless drivers in the Chase Grid fear a winless driver outside the Chase Grid?
Jamie McMurray (12th) and Paul Menard (13th) may not feel the crunch, but Gordon (14th), Newman (15th) and Bowyer (16th) should be afraid—very afraid.
With drivers like Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle and Kahne, very capable drivers outside the Chase Grid, the drivers on the fringe of the Grid risk getting the boot.
Then again, maybe not. Though Stewart, Biffle and Kahne have dozens of wins among them, those wins are distant in time and space. Writes FoxSports.com’s Tom Jensen:
"But it will take an extraordinary set of circumstances—a rain-shortened race where someone gambles on pit strategy, a huge crash that takes out the top 10 cars on a green-white-checkered finish or maybe someone making a desperate move to stretch fuel mileage.
Anything can happen in NASCAR.
And it often does.
But right now, the odds—and more importantly, the statistical results—strongly suggest the 16 drivers in the current Chase grid will stay there for four more weeks.
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That doesn’t mean they should count their chickens. The Chase format, as it stands, means anyone is alive until the checkered flag waves at Richmond.
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