8 2026 MLB Trade Deadline Predictions
Major League Baseball's August 3 trade deadline is now less than two weeks away, yet it's not exactly getting easier to get the lay of the land.
This is not exactly the best environment in which to make predictions, but we're going to do it anyway.
There are eight shots that we feel at least semi-comfortable calling, and they cover events that both will and won't happen. Door No. 2 feels especially instructive this year, as too many stars who have been teased as trade bait seem stuck for various reasons.
But don't worry. Five of our predictions involve going through Door No. 1 and discussing trades that will happen. And because nobody likes a boring trade prediction, these fall on the side of hot takes.
A Francisco Lindor Trade Is Not Happening
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Why It's a Hot Take
One thing we absolutely know right now is that the New York Mets are open for business. And according to Chelsea Janes of SNY, Francisco Lindor is not "off the table."
The Mets are deep in last place in the NL East at 42-59, so selling is an all-too-obvious call. And while his $34.1 million salaries through 2031 are no big loss for Steve Cohen, this might be the Mets' last best chance to get something for Lindor.
No, he's not having a good season. But he's already gesturing at living up to his rep as a second-half hitter, and interested teams can see that as a sign that he still has the goods that allowed him to average 5.9 rWAR per 162 games through his first 11 seasons.
Why It's the Right Take
But, alas, Lindor's contract is under water right now. And likely so under water, in fact, that the Mets would only be able to move him in a bad contract swap or by simply swallowing most or all of the $186.4 million he's still owed.
Given how much money that is, the bad contract swap seems… improbable, at best. And since Lindor isn't ancient at 32 years old, you'd understand if Cohen didn't want to eat his contract just to get rid of him. It could prove to be a catastrophic sell-low play.
Factoring in that Lindor also has a full no-trade clause, there are ultimately just too many barriers to clear here. This whole concept is better off being held for the offseason.
The Yankees (and Everyone Else) Won't Have Enough for Mason Miller
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Why It's a Hot Take
The San Diego Padres weren't meant to be a seller right now, but an 18-31 slide since May 24 has changed the conversation. And if A.J. Preller likes anything, it's making shocking trades.
Hence why Mason Miller's name is everywhere right now, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the club has "have not ruled out anything" as far as potential actions. There's surely interest in the two-time All-Star out there, and we know from Jon Heyman of the New York Post that the New York Yankees are enamored with Miller.
In what may or may not be a related story, MLB reporter Francys Romero reports the Yankees are ready to dangle slugging outfielders Spencer Jones and Jasson Domínguez. Would either or both of them get a deal done?
Why It's the Right Take
In answer to that last question, that should be a hard no for the Padres. And honestly, even our recent pitch of Jones, Will Warren and Anthony Volpe is on the light side of what San Diego should be willing to accept for Miller.
He's the best reliever in MLB, full stop. He's also under club control through 2029. It was also just last year that the Padres traded Leo De Vries (currently B/R's No. 2 prospect) to get him from the A's.
It'll take a Godfather offer for the Yankees or anyone else to pry Miller loose from the Padres. And unless Jerry Dipoto of the Seattle Mariners or Dave Dombrowski of the Philadelphia Phillies prove otherwise, the only GM wild enough to make an offer like that is Preller himself.
None of Those AL Central Stars Are Going Anywhere
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Why It's a Hot Take
This is specifically in reference to Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal and Minnesota Twins stars Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton, who are theoretically the three best players to be had on the market this summer.
OK, fine. Given his public stance, including Buxton in this discussion is stretching the limits even of the word "theoretical." But Skubal and Ryan are horses of a different color, as each could command a huge haul for a club that is currently below .500.
The Twins have beaten the odds just to go 49-52 so far. And while the Tigers have been on a nice run since June 1, they still need to go at least 9-3 between now and August 2 just to have a .500 record at the deadline.
Why It's the Right Take
Even if the Twins have indeed beaten the odds so far, the reality is that they're only 3.0 games off the pace in the AL wild-card race. It's not easy to raise a white flag when an unexpected victory is that close.
And besides, the clock is not ticking on Ryan like it is on Ryan Jeffers. The latter is a free agent after this year. The former has one more year under club control after 2026. And given this year's progress, the Twins could reason that he and Buxton could be central to a real contender next year.
As for Skubal and the Tigers, they must know that they're 33-28 on either side of Skubal's six-week stint on the injured list. Even if they're not at .500 by the trade deadline, they can be confident that their line will keep trending up as long as he stays on the mound.
The Red Sox and Nationals Will Hook Up on a Luis García Jr. Trade
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Why It's a Hot Take
If this year has proven anything, it's that the Washington Nationals are already ahead of schedule after hiring Paul Toboni to fix things last September.
They're 51-50 after averaging 96 losses per year between 2021 and 2025, and Luis García Jr. is an increasingly large reason for the turnaround. He's already topped his previous career high with 20 home runs, 11 of which came in June alone. And since he's 26 and controlled through 2027, the Nats don't need to sell high.
Otherwise, García doesn't exactly fit the Boston Red Sox like a glove. They're last in the AL in home runs, but their lineup already leans left-handed and García's position (first base) is occupied by All-Star Willson Contreras.
Why It's the Right Take
And yet, there's some smoke here. Will Sammon and Spencer Nusbaum of The Athletic tabbed the Red Sox as a fit for García, with Héctor Gómez of Z101 taking things a step further with a report that Boston is showing "a lot of interest."
If so, the thinking may be that Masataka Yoshida should not stand in García's way in the designated hitter spot. Things wouldn't get complicated until Roman Anthony's return set up a clash with Jarren Duran for playing time in left field. But from the sound of things, the Red Sox shouldn't hold their breath on Anthony.
The only other concern is making the right deal between Boston and Washington, and that shouldn't be too big of a challenge. Toboni came from Boston's front office, and thus knows Craig Breslow and the Red Sox's farm system well.
The Cubs Will Do the Obvious and Trade for Freddy Peralta
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Why It's a Hot Take
There actually aren't many pressing questions with this prediction, but one of them concerns whether the Cubs should be aiming higher than Freddy Peralta.
Their starting pitching ranks 29th in rWAR, so they clearly need rotation help. He just hasn't provided the Mets with much this year, as his 21 starts have yielded a 5.01 ERA as well as a bunch of other alarming stats. He's just not the same guy who was an All-Star and down-ballot Cy Young Award contender in 2025.
The other pressing question is how hard the Cubs can go after Peralta even if they do want him. Per B/R's Joel Reuter, they only have MLB's 24th-ranked farm system coming out of the draft. There may not be enough in there if the market allows the Mets to drive a hard bargain.
Why It's the Right Take
There is, however, no longer any question of whether the Cubs like Peralta as a trade target. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, they do.
And in their defense, there is some noise to see through when looking at Peralta. He's mostly pitched fine this year, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 14 of his 21 starts. And the fastball is gaining steam, jumping from an average of 94.2 mph in June to 95.1 mph so far in July.
There also could be enough in even the Cubs' system to afford what should be a reduced price on Peralta. And it would help, of course, if other notable arms distracted teams with deeper caches of prospects.
The White Sox Will Grab José Soriano from the Angels
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Why It's a Hot Take
Will José Soriano really be available in the next two weeks? According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, he is, in fact, expected to be.
But one is skeptical, precisely because one knows the Los Angeles Angels are still ultimately in Arte Moreno's hands. If there's anything he hates, it's greenlighting trades of star players.
There's perhaps even more uncertainty on the Chicago White Sox's side of this. They lead the AL Central and do need starting pitching, but this is Year 1 of hopefully a multi-year contention cycle. As per Scott Merkin of MLB.com, Pale Hose GM Chris Getz should not be expected to sacrifice the farm depth he's built just to "jump at a one-year possibility."
Why It's the Right Take
That's the thing about Soriano, though: A trade for him wouldn't constitute a one-year bet on 2026. He's under club control through 2028.
He's also capital-P Perfect for the White Sox. He's an extreme ground-ball pitcher with a 52.1 GB% that ranks second among AL hurlers. And whereas Angels infielders rank 26th in Outs Above Average, White Sox infielders are tied for 10th.
As for Moreno, it's very possible that what he's needed all these years is the right voice in his ear. As perhaps evidenced by how he got the team to use a first-round pick on a high schooler, John Mozeliak might just have that voice.
The Braves Will Raid the Angels for Reid Detmers
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Why It's a Hot Take
If Tarik Skubal and Joe Ryan go nowhere… and if the Red Sox buy and thus keep Sonny Gray… does that make Reid Detmers the best pitching prize to be had in the next couple weeks?
You can easily make that case, even if his 4.16 ERA would seem to be a point of evidence to the contrary. Sort of like Freddy Peralta, Detmers has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 14 of his 20 starts. He's also tied for 12th among starters with a 27.4 K%, with easily the lowest walk rate of his career at 7.4 percent.
If the Angels are going to trade Detmers, they should aim for nothing less than a king's ransom. And with only MLB's No. 26 farm system at their disposal, the Atlanta Braves might not have the goods to pay a ransom like that.
Why It's the Right Take
For his part, though, it doesn't sound like Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is messing around. He alluded in a recent MLB Network Radio interview about wanting a "playoff-caliber starter."
Call it a hunch, but maybe this is related to how Atlanta's rotation has gone from a 3.26 ERA through May to a 5.19 ERA ever since. It's the biggest fault on an otherwise World Series-caliber roster, and thus worth an aggressive play. Offering, say, Eric Hartman and Cam Caminiti for Detmers would do the trick.
Maybe the Angels can do better in the abstract, but how about reality? Arguably the only other first-place contender that needs starting pitching is the Los Angeles Dodgers, yet they don't seem motivated to do anything. Per Katie Woo of The Athletic, the Dodgers are fine "patching" their rotation in the coming weeks.
The Rays Will Pull Off a Hunter Goodman Stunner
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Why It's a Hot Take
It's more than a little under the radar, but the most fascinating decision any front office head has to make in the next couple weeks belongs to Colorado Rockies president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta.
He must decide whether Hunter Goodman is a can't-miss building block, or a can't-miss trade chip. There are surely more than a couple teams crossing their fingers for the latter. With back-to-back All-Star selections to his name and 30 home runs already this year, Goodman is theoretically the prized hitter on the market.
Even if the Rockies do entertain offers for Goodman, the Tampa Bay Rays submitting the winning bid is less than likely. Their thing tends to be buying low on guys in trades, not paying peak value for in-their-prime stars.
Why It's the Right Take
If nothing else, though, here's why this fit is perfect: Goodman's 30 homers through 93 games this year is more than the Rays have gotten from their catchers in the last three seasons combined.
You can see why they would be in on Ryan Jeffers, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported. Goodman is obviously the superior option, and his right-handed power combined with Junior Caminero's would only elevate the Rays (who have the AL's best record) as the favorites in the Junior Circuit.
Goodman is 26 and under club control through 2029, so the Rockies would need a haul for him. And this is the other reason why this fit is perfect. The Rays have MLB's third-ranked farm system, and in it are two top-100 prospects in Caden Bodine and C Nathan Flewelling.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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