Predicting Teams That Will Finish Last in Every NFL Division for the 2026 Season

The NFL playoff picture changes significantly every year. Teams rise, others fall and some remain stagnant as rosters go through offseason changes.

While it may seem easy to pick one or two teams that will finish at the bottom of the standings, there are always surprises. Few saw the Detroit Lions dropping from 15-2 in 2024 to last place in the NFC North with a 9-8 record in 2025.

So, in addition to rebuilding teams with glaring question marks at quarterback and other key positions, which clubs are most likely to finish fourth in divisions this year?

Here are our early projections ahead of training camp.

AFC East: Miami Dolphins

AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell

Miami Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley

The rebuilding Miami Dolphins have an inexperienced starting quarterback in Malik Willis and no clear-cut lead wide receiver. 

As rookie third-rounder Chris Bell recovers from a torn ACL, Miami may start the 2026 campaign with Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington and Tutu Atwell as its top three wideouts. That trio isn't going to strike fear in defensive coordinators. 

Although Pro Bowl running back De'Von Achane is an electric playmaker out of the backfield, he may not see a heavy workload on the ground if the Dolphins are chasing leads all season.

This offseason, tight end Greg Dulcich has generated buzz as an emerging playmaker in the Dolphins' aerial attack. He's an intriguing under-the-radar roster holdover from the previous regime, but the four-year pro has yet to top his 2022 rookie receiving numbers (33 receptions for 411 yards and two touchdowns) with the Denver Broncos.

New Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley is the former Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator who led units that ranked sixth and 11th in scoring in 2024 and 2025, respectively. In Miami, he must mold a unit with major question marks in the secondary. Cornerback Chris Johnson is a rookie. Seven-year veteran Lonnie Johnson Jr. is the most experienced safety on the roster with only 22 starts.

The Dolphins are in for a long season with several potential lopsided losses.

AFC North: Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

Cleveland Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders

Under a new coaching staff, the Cleveland Browns must sort out their quarterback room. Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders are battling for the starting job. According to The Athletic's Zac Jackson, neither stood out in spring practices.

Cleveland is the only team in the AFC North with a question mark at quarterback, and whoever starts under center will play behind a completely new starting offensive line.

Aside from Jerry Jeudy, the wide receiver group lacks playing experience. Rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston could play significant roles this year, which is a positive for their early progress, but a sign that the offense will go through growing pains. 

By the way, Cleveland's defense will probably regress significantly after the club traded star edge-rusher Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams. No disrespect to Jared Verse, but he's not a Defensive Player of the Year candidate or a dominant pass-rusher like Garrett.

The Browns should view the upcoming campaign as a year of development for their young talent.

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts

AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17)

Don't let Daniel Jones' 2025 season as "Indianapolis Jones" fool you. We've seen him show flashes in the past with the New York Giants, but he's still a mediocre starting quarterback.

On top of that, Jones' extensive injury history raises concerns about his durability. In five out of seven seasons, he's missed at least three games. Coming off a torn Achilles suffered in December of last year, the 29-year-old participated in seven-on-seven drills in the spring, but it's hard to trust him for a full campaign.

Keep in mind that Jones may not be able to practice with his primary wide receiver until late in training camp. Alec Pierce is still recovering from ankle surgery.  

Aside from the 2022 season with the Cincinnati Bengals, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has an abysmal track record. In six out of eight campaigns as a play-caller, his defenses have ranked 19th or worse in points allowed.

After going 8-9 in 2025, the Indianapolis Colts are headed for a regression year.

AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders

AP Photo/John Locher

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins

The Las Vegas Raiders don't need to accomplish much to see improvement from their three-win 2025 season.

They could have a bright future with first-time head coach Klint Kubiak, whose offense helped lead the Seattle Seahawks to a Super Bowl victory last season. The foundation also looks promising with quarterback Fernando Mendoza, this year's No. 1 overall pick, All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty.

However, the Raiders' short-term outlook has major obstacles.

First and foremost, Las Vegas is in a tough division with Super Bowl and perennial playoff contenders. Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs fell from postseason grace last year, but they're an easy pick to be a bounce-back team if Patrick Mahomes returns from a torn ACL to suit up for Week 1.

According to ESPN's Ryan McFadden, quarterback Kirk Cousins is expected to start at the beginning of the season. The Raiders' beat reporter also noted that Mendoza mostly practiced with the second- and third-team offense through mandatory minicamp.

Based on the early plan for Mendoza, the Raiders are taking a measured approach to this rebuild. While wins are always important, Las Vegas may emphasize development around Cousins this year.

The Raiders don't have a go-to target within their young group of wide receivers, which puts a lot of pressure on Bowers and Jeanty in their third and second season, respectively.

Las Vegas also has an inexperienced defensive play-caller in Rob Leonard, who will be in chess matches with Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, Los Angeles Chargers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel and Denver Broncos offensive coordinator Davis Webb, who's backed by head coach Sean Payton. 

Expect Cousins to set an example for Mendoza, while Leonard establishes himself as a defensive coordinator. Still, the Raiders will have to scratch and claw their way to wins in the AFC's toughest division.

NFC East: New York Giants

AP Photo/Seth Wenig

New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart

While most expect head coach John Harbaugh to change the New York Giants' culture, it may take some time. 

Initially, Big Blue seemed like a dark-horse pick to make the 2026 playoffs, but the club has far too many question marks on the offensive side of the ball to feel good about that projection.

Harbaugh said Malik Nabers didn't suffer a "simple knee injury," which creates some uncertainty around the wide receiver's timetable for return from a torn ACL. According to ESPN's Jordan Raanan, the Giants wideout had a second "cleanup" procedure to remove scar tissue from the first surgery. 

If Nabers isn't ready or is less than 100 percent for Week 1, Darius Slayton and tight end Isaiah Likely could see most of the targets in the aerial attack, but they're unproven as go-to pass-catchers.

Regardless, quarterback Jaxson Dart expects the Giants to be a run-heavy team in 2026, which isn't an encouraging sign for him, given his inability to stay healthy and avoid hits as a ball-carrier last season. Also, remember, lead running back Cam Skattebo is recovering from a dislocated ankle, a ruptured deltoid ligament and a fractured fibula.

While the Giants defense should be stout with Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Abdul Carter on the edge and the addition of rookie first-rounder Arvell Reese, the team's potential offensive issues could translate to inconsistencies and scoring droughts.

Typically, the club with the most uncertainties in a division sinks to the bottom of it.

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

AP Photo/David Zalubowski

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love

This seems like a sizzling hot take because the Green Bay Packers haven't finished last in the NFC North since 2005. They're usually in the playoff mix with a shot to make a Super Bowl run.

However, this year will be different in Green Bay. The Packers have major concerns on both sides of the ball. 

Offensively, the Packers may be without running back Josh Jacobs for a period of time, depending on the outcome of an ongoing legal case and any potential discipline under the league's personal conduct policy.

Jacobs, 28, was arrested in Brown County, Wisconsin, in May and booked into jail on five potential charges listed in online records, including felony strangulation and suffocation and four related misdemeanors. He was later released from custody after the Brown County District Attorney's Office said it was not yet prepared to make a formal charging decision, requested additional investigation and noted that the investigation remains open and ongoing.

MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks are the primary backup running backs on the roster. They have 88 career carries combined.

Depending on Jacobs' status, the Packers may have to rely heavily on their passing attack, a departure from head coach Matt LaFleur's past offenses. Green Bay ranked in the bottom six in passing attempts for the 2024 and 2025 seasons.

Furthermore, Green Bay's defense could struggle to give the offense more possessions without star edge-rusher Micah Parsons, who's recovering from a torn ACL with meniscus damage.

The Packers have a nine-month recovery policy for players returning from that type of injury. Parsons revealed he'll start the 2026 season on the physically unable to perform list with a possible return date in October.

Without Parsons to mask coverage issues in the secondary, the Packers could be off to a slow start this year. If the Minnesota Vikings offense looks sharp with quarterback Kyler Murray, Green Bay could be in an uphill climb to stay out of the NFC North basement.

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons

AP Photo/Mike Stewart

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson

The Atlanta Falcons have finished slightly below .500 with seven or eight wins every season since 2021. While two-time Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski brings experience and credibility, he can only do so much with two mid-to-low-tier starting quarterbacks.

At training camp, incumbent Michael Penix Jr. will battle newcomer Tua Tagovailoa for the starting job. They're both left-handed signal-callers with concerning injury histories.

The Falcons didn't clear Penix for 11-on-11 drills during the spring. He's recovering from a partially torn ACL, which required surgery. Tagovailoa has suffered multiple concussions and contemplated retirement after the 2022 campaign.

In all likelihood, Stefanski will run his offense through running back Bijan Robinson, wideout Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts, who has been signed to a three-year, $54 million extension. 

However, the Falcons need an accurate, reliable quarterback to get the ball to London and Pitts. Penix has completed 59.6 percent of his passes in two seasons. Tagovailoa has admitted that he struggles to see the field behind offensive and defensive linemen.

Also, keep in mind that defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich's units have ranked 19th or worse in scoring for three consecutive seasons, going back to his time with the New York Jets. 

In the NFC South, the Falcons have less momentum than the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints heading into the 2026 season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have enough talent on both sides of the ball to bounce back from an 8-9 record in the previous year. Atlanta drops to the bottom of the division with five or six wins.

NFC West: Arizona Cardinals

AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett

This is the least shocking projection for this year's last-place teams. The Arizona Cardinals are far behind the Super Bowl-winning Seattle Seahawks and the perennial playoff-contending Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. 

The Cardinals have finished fourth in the NFC West in three of the previous four years. Don't expect them to break that trend with journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett leading the offense. Even if Arizona resolves its contract dispute with the 33-year-old signal-caller, the team may want to see rookie third-rounder Carson Beck under center before the quarterback-rich 2027 draft.

Running back Jeremiyah Love should bring some excitement, but Arizona's biggest offensive storyline will be wideout Marvin Harrison Jr.'s development. If he doesn't make significant strides in his third year, the team may not have a No. 1 wide receiver for the future.

According to ESPN's Dan Graziano, Josh Sweat is "letting it be known" that he's unhappy with the team. The Cardinals have a disgruntled double-digit sack defender, which could lead to a messy training camp situation.

Brissett and Sweat attended mandatory minicamp, but they didn't participate in practices. That's an ominous sign for a team in the early stages of a roster rebuild with a first-year head coach in Mike LaFleur.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.