New NHL Draft Rumors Reveal 'Wafer-Thin Margin Separates' Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg for Leafs

Despite the fact that he has long been viewed as the top prospect in the class, the Toronto Maple Leafs selecting forward Gavin McKenna with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NHL draft on Friday night reportedly may not be a slam dunk.

According to ESPN's Kristen Shilton, it is believed in some league circles that a "wafer-thin margin separates" McKenna from Swedish forward Ivar Stenberg.

While the Leafs' pick isn't yet a lock because of that, Shilton suggested that the most likely endgame will see Toronto take McKenna because of how well he would fit the team's up-tempo style.

Shilton noted that nobody she spoke with would call McKenna a more "complete package" than Stenberg, who has often been heralded for his strong, two-way game.

After dominating the WHL to the tune of 41 goals and 129 points in 56 games during the 2024-25 season, McKenna proved that he could get it done collegiately as well, finishing with 15 goals and 36 assists for 51 points in 35 games last season at Penn State.

Meanwhile, Stenberg has played professionally for the past two seasons with Frölunda HC of the Swedish Hockey League.

This past season, the 18-year-old had 11 goals and 22 assists for 33 points in 43 games, which is no small feat against much older, more experienced and more developed competition.

On top of that, Stenberg had eight points in eight games for Sweden at the 2026 IIHF World Championship, further proving his ability to excel against established pros.

McKenna seemingly has more offensive upside, though, and he makes sense for the Leafs as a potential replacement for Mitch Marner, who left for the Vegas Golden Knights in free agency last offseason.

Marner's departure severely damaged the Leafs, dropping them from 108 points in 2024-25 to 78 points this past season, and causing them to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

McKenna may be exactly the type of running mate Auston Matthews needs to get back on track as well after scoring the fewest goals of his career last season with 27.

Should the Leafs pass on Stenberg in favor of McKenna, it would leave Stenberg on the board for the San Jose Sharks at No. 2 overall, thus giving rising superstar Macklin Celebrini even more high-end talent to play alongside.