Projecting When Each 2026 Rookie QB Will Make NFL Starting Debut

In 17 of the last 18 NFL seasons, at least one rookie quarterback has started in Week 1. The lone exception was the 2022 campaign, although nine different rookies eventually started games that season, including Kenny Pickett and Brock Purdy.

In 2026, it's safe to say we'll see some rookie quarterback action, especially in Las Vegas. Beyond that, though, it's tough to get a bead on. 

When should you expect to see each rookie make his first start? After the NFL released every team's schedule Thursday night, we've come up with some educated guesses on each of the 10 signal-callers who were drafted last month.

Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders

AP Photo/John Locher

Fernando Mendoza

Drafted: Round 1 (1st overall)

The Competition: Kirk Cousins, Aidan O'Connell

Klint Kubiak goes way back with the veteran Cousins, who was brought in to bridge the gap to Mendoza. And Kubiak has essentially said that it would be ideal for his rookie No. 1 overall pick to spend some time learning from the sideline. 

So right now, it's safe to say Cousins is a heavy favorite to start when the Raiders open the season against Miami on Sept. 13. 

The problem is the Raiders' schedule doesn't have a lot of breaks over the course of the first 10 weeks, and the team won't want to throw the Indiana product to the wolves. But the silver lining there is the 37-year-old Cousins is pretty unlikely to keep the Raiders in the playoff picture as they enter the home stretch. 

Therefore, it would probably make sense for the team to finally introduce Mendoza as a starter with a home game following their Week 13 bye. 

Predicted First Start: Week 14 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Ty Simpson, Los Angeles Rams

AP Photo/Caroline Brehman

Ty Simpson

Drafted: Round 1 (13th overall)

The Competition: Matthew Stafford, Stetson Bennett IV

Stafford is the reigning MVP, so we know this is a pick for 2027 or beyond. Barring a Stafford injury, Simpson will redshirt this season. 

However, if the Rams' final game doesn't mean anything, there's always a chance the Alabama product gets a shot. 

Predicted First Start: Week 18 vs. Seattle Seahawks

Carson Beck, Arizona Cardinals 

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

Carson Beck

Drafted: Round 3 (65th overall)

The Competition: Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew II

This is realistically another rebuild year for a team that went 3-14 last season and is winging it with two low-ceiling veteran quarterbacks in 2026. 

That likely means they eventually give Beck a shot so that they have a better feel for what they have before determining how to approach free agency and the draft at the quarterback position, but you'd have to imagine they'd wait for Brissett and/or Minshew to pretty much sink the ship first. 

It's possible that happens in October or November, but between Week 5 and Week 13 they have the Lions, Rams, Broncos, Cowboys, Seahawks, Rams, Chiefs, Commanders and Eagles. 

My money's on them giving Beck his first start in a low-pressure home environment following their Week 14 bye. 

Predicted First Start: Week 15 vs. New York Jets

Drew Allar, Pittsburgh Steelers

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Drew Allar

Drafted: Round 3 (76th overall)

The Competition: Aaron Rodgers (?), Mason Rudolph, Will Howard

This depends on what happens with Rodgers, who remains a free agent. It still seems to be a likelihood that the vet returns to Pittsburgh for one more season, in which case Allar is extremely unlikely to see much action for a team that will probably battle for the entire 18-week regular season like usual. 

If Rodgers doesn't return, all bets are off. But there's still a good chance the team adds another veteran in that case, and Rudolph (and possibly Howard) would start the season higher on the depth chart anyway. 

Predicted First Start: 2027 or later

Cade Klubnik, New York Jets

AP Photo/Frank Franklin II

Cade Klubnik

Drafted: Round 4 (110th overall)

The Competition: Geno Smith, Brady Cook, Bailey Zappe

Jets brass has raved about Smith, but we're talking about a 35-year-old who has thrown 32 interceptions the last two seasons combined and is clearly not the long-term solution for this team. 

So again, this is a situation in which the team will want to have a decent feel for its in-house options before potentially doing something drastic in the upcoming offseason. And a perfect opportunity to get a look at Klubnik might come when they are likely to be eliminated for a matchup with the soft Cardinals in mid-December. 

Plus, it would be a strangely intriguing late-season battle of rookie mid-round picks making their debuts as starting quarterbacks!

Predicted First Start: Week 15 at Arizona

The Long-Shot Club

AP Photo/Colin E. Braley

Garrett Nussmeier

Cole Payton, Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles do this. They drafted Kyle McCord in the sixth round a year ago, took Payton in Round 5 in April and recently signed veteran Andy Dalton to work with Tanner McKee in support of Jalen Hurts. Payton is extremely unlikely to be in the picture at all for Philly in 2026. 

Taylen Green, Cleveland Browns: You never know with the Browns, but a healthy Deshaun Watson combined with sophomores Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel simply means we have a "too many cooks" scenario in Cleveland. 

Athan Kaliakmanis, Washington Commanders: Now we're into seventh-rounders. This one is buried behind a young star (Jayden Daniels) and a solid veteran backup (Marcus Mariota). Like Green, I doubt he'd even get a throwaway start in a meaningless late-season game. 

Behren Morton, New England Patriots: Drake Maye nearly won MVP in 2025 and they've also got Tommy DeVito. At best, this is a Week 18 meaningless game situation.

Garrett Nussmeier, Kansas City Chiefs: Honestly, this is the best shot of the long shots. If Patrick Mahomes doesn't start the season healthy and Justin Fields suffers an injury, Nussmeier—who showed tremendous leadership the last couple years at LSU—would likely get some legit work.