.jpg?w=1280)
Buy or Sell Yankees Unreal Pitching, Cal Raleigh's Brutal Start and More Early MLB Storylines
When it's still this early in any given MLB season, the only thing anyone should be is skeptical.
Whether we're talking the excitement of a 2006 Chris Shelton or the pain of the 1988 Orioles, stuff that's hard to believe just tends to happen in the small-sample-size zone that is the opening weeks of a new season.
The only question, then, is how hard is it to believe what's happening?
It's in the spirit of this question that we're going to play a game of "Buy or Sell?" with eight early-season storylines. Generally, the idea is to suss out whether what we're seeing is a sign of things to come or much ado about nothing.
But first, some quick-hitters for a few honorable mentions.
Quick Hitters
1 of 9
What's Up with Junior Caminero's Defense?
He's already made six errors, which is more than 13 teams have made thus far. And seeing as how he was also one of six defenders to make as many as 18 errors last year, the Rays probably should be considering a move off third base.
Should the Pirates Be Nervous About Konnor Griffin?
He was called up to much fanfare, but he's only 3-for-17 through five games. It's a small sample, and he's at least looked comfortable on defense…but it does also feel like a reminder that he's still just 19 years old.
How Broken Is the Cubs' Rotation?
Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton are both on the injured list, and the latter won't be back in 2026 after elbow surgery. Chicago starters have a 2.80 ERA anyway, but it's not too soon for the suits to start working the phones.
The Rockies Are…Competitive?
They're 5-6, but they're not in last place and they even won a series in Toronto. The real shocker is that they actually have a positive run differential at +2 through 11 games, so maybe Paul DePodesta is onto something in Denver.
Does MLB Have a Brewing HBP Problem?
2 of 9
What's Happening?
Hitters taking exception to a hit-by-pitch is a tale as old as time, but Mike Trout and Willson Contreras and especially Jorge Soler have really upped the ante in the last few days.
By his generally inoffensive standards, Trout had stern words for the Seattle Mariners after they plunked him twice in three days. Contreras was much harsher on the Milwaukee Brewers, vowing to take someone out if they do it again. To that extent, Soler quite literally beat him to the punch on Tuesday night.
How Believable Is This?
If there's a real concern these guys are speaking to, it relates to how the average fastball crosses the plate higher than it did a decade ago. That's by design, and it means a scary hit-by-pitch is merely a matter of horizontal placement.
And yet, hit-by-pitches declined in 2025 and are down even more so to 0.37 per game so far in 2026. That's the lowest since 2017, so it's hard to see what happened to Trout, Contreras and Soler as endemic.
Verdict
Hard sell on the whole idea.
Are the Reds Overachieving or Underachieving?
3 of 9
What's Happening?
The Reds are 8-3 even though they've only scored one more run than they've allowed, which should allude to obvious overachieving.
Then again, them continuing to score 3.1 runs per game is almost certainly not sustainable, right? The only team of recent vintage to be that anemic on offense was the 2024 White Sox, whose "best" everyday hitter only had a 98 OPS+.
How Believable Is This?
If anything, you could see what the Reds are doing now as proof of concept. If they were going to contend in 2026, it always was going to be with elite run prevention and just enough offense.
They're not even getting "just enough" offense, but that'll change. Eugenio Suárez, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and TJ Friedl are better than they've shown, so the Reds only need to be patient.
Verdict
Soft buy that the Reds can keep winning like this.
Are the Giants Really This Bad?
4 of 9
What's Happening?
The Giants are in the basement of the NL West at 4-8, and that's not even the worst part. They also have a -21 run differential, the worst in the National League.
Honestly, even that might not be the worst part. Whether we're talking Matt Chapman's temper or Tony Vitello's loose lips, the energy coming off this Giants team is just plain off-putting.
How Believable Is This?
Perhaps the real question here is whether anyone expected better from the 2026 Giants. This wasn't a good team last year, and preseason projections generally had them down as an also-ran in the NL West.
The roster is talented, but also gives off the impression of an allegedly "complete" puzzle that has ill-fitting pieces jammed together. And even if you adjust for Oracle Park, Rafael Devers hitting .231/.337/.438 as a Giant is not what the team had in mind when it got him last June.
Verdict
Hard buy that the Giants are in trouble.
Is Cal Raleigh Human Again?
5 of 9
What's Happening?
Cal Raleigh hit 60 home runs last year. Perhaps you heard about it. If not, you certainly heard tell of his not-at-all-exaggerated sobriquet.
So far in 2026, though, the Mariners' powerful backstop is 7-for-45 with only one home run and 20 strikeouts. This is after he was bad enough to get benched during the World Baseball Classic, so it sure seems like Earth's gravity is calling "Big Dumper" home.
How Believable Is This?
Raleigh put on a masterclass in efficient power with a ton of pulled fly balls last year, but it was also his first rodeo as an actually good hitter. Prior to 2025, he was a .218 hitter with a .296 OBP.
Shades of his 2025 self have started to appear recently, as he homered off 99 mph from Jacob deGrom on Monday and was notably robbed of what should have been his first homer by Jo Adell on Saturday. Even so, expectations for Raleigh should be adjusted downward.
Verdict
Soft sell that Raleigh is this human.
Is Sandy Alcantara Back? And Sticking Around?
6 of 9
What's Happening?
Four years ago, Sandy Alcantara was a man out of time as he pitched 228.2 innings en route to the NL Cy Young Award. To make a long story short, he then got lost in the wilderness for a bit.
He seems to have found his way back out, as he finished last year strong and has allowed only two earned runs in 24.1 innings through three starts this year. But while it's a boost for a surprising 6-5 Marlins squad now, it's also likely to keep the trade buzz surrounding Alcantara nice and loud.
How Believable Is This?
That Alcantara is back? Very. He doesn't throw as hard now as he did in 2022, but it's still really heavy stuff that has resulted in extraordinarily weak contact quality thus far. To boot, he's back to being one of the game's great innings eaters.
As for a potential trade, even Alcantara isn't bothering to tune out the possibility. And despite their strong start, it does feel like just a matter of time before the Marlins will cut their losses and focus on playing the long game in the NL East.
Verdict
Hard buy that Alcantara is back and will be traded
Is the Yankees Rotation Really That Good?
7 of 9
What's Happening?
It is also surprising that the Braves lead all of MLB with a 2.04 ERA. But given that they don't have Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón or Clarke Schmidt back yet, more surprising is that Yankees starters lead by a mile with a 2.14 ERA.
The stars are Max Fried and Cam Schlittler, who have made six starts and combined to allow six earned runs with 36 strikeouts over 36.2 innings.
How Believable Is This?
Fried is Fried, and Schlittler might have the best pure stuff of any starter in the AL. It's also no surprise that the latter doesn't walk anyone, given that he can go right at hitters with three different high-octane fastballs.
Will Warren and Ryan Weathers have been just OK, however, and the Yanks haven't needed a fifth starter yet because of their schedules. And despite their pedigrees, expectations for Cole, Rodón and Schmidt are best held in check. All three are 30-somethings who'll be returning from elbow surgeries.
Verdict
Soft sell that this rotation will keep its ERA lead.
Is Roman Anthony Unplayable in the Field?
8 of 9
What's Happening?
It isn't uncommon for an ascendant young player to make headlines with his arm, but Roman Anthony is doing it the wrong way. He has made multiple bad throws that have cost the Red Sox, and it seems pretty clear that the book is out.
The bright side is that he has a small left field to patrol when he and the Red Sox are at Fenway Park. Even so, it sure feels like Alex Cora is sending a message with his increasing willingness to use Anthony at DH.
How Believable Is This?
Anthony has hit 91.6 mph on a throw this year, so this wouldn't seem to be a question of health. It might not even be one of arm strength, as Cora thinks Anthony's issues are mechanical in nature.
And yet, the MLB Pipeline report on Anthony last year did note a curious lack of assists in the outfield as a minor leaguer in 2024. That continued to be a subtle storyline in 2025, and now there's obviously nothing subtle about his throwing issues.
Verdict
Hard buy that Boston needs to figure this out.
Are the Blue Jays Too Injured to Repeat?
9 of 9
What's Happening?
The Blue Jays are off to a 4-7 start, yet that also feels like the least of their worries. They have nine players on their injured list, and those reports aren't exactly brimming with good news.
Of particular concern is the starting rotation, which just lost Cody Ponce for the year and also has a new question mark in the form of Max Scherzer's forearm. It's now basically Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease and pray for rain.
How Believable Is This?
The cavalry won't be over the hill forever. Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage should rejoin the rotation in the next few weeks, and Alejandro Kirk should be back behind the dish sometime in May.
That said, Toronto's playoff odds have already fallen pretty far at FanGraphs. Injuries can have that sort of effect, and the AL East will show the Blue Jays no mercy. They need to be on the phone to Lucas Giolito now.
Verdict
Soft buy that Toronto can't simply be patient.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
