Buy or Sell Each MLB Playoff Contender Advancing in 2026 Postseason
Ready or not, the 2026 Major League Baseball postseason is rapidly approaching.
Will the Dodgers make it back to the World Series, possibly for a repeat of 2024 against the Yankees? Or could it be a drastically different budgetary battle between the Brewers and the Rays in which the victor secures its first-ever title?
Thus far, no one has clinched a playoff spot. However, both Milwaukee and Tampa Bay could do so this week, and there are 10 teams that look to be relatively locked into the 12-team field.
For the five teams currently behind that tier but still within three games of the cut line, our focus is on whether they'll make the postseason at all, buying or selling those odds, per FanDuel.
After that, we've listed each team's postseason odds—from making the playoffs through to winning the World Series—using percentages from Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, as well as World Series betting lines from FanDuel.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics, records and odds are current through the start of play on Sunday.
Teams are presented in alphabetical order.
5 Teams Fighting for 2 Final Playoff Spots
1 of 11
There are 10 teams with at least an 88.8 percent chance of reaching the postseason, per the consensus of Baseball-Reference playoff odds, FanGraphs playoff odds and the implied odds of FanDuel's "To Reach the Playoffs" lines. Those 10 teams will get their own section speculating on their staying power in October.
These are the five teams on the cut line, still realistically vying for the final spot on their half of the bracket. Rather than project how far they might go in the postseason, we're focused more on whether they'll make it to October at all.
National League
Arizona Diamondbacks (current No. 6 seed, 0.5 games ahead of San Diego; 55.5% postseason odds per FanGraphs/Baseball-Reference, -105 to make postseason via FanDuel)
San Diego Padres (0.5 games behind Arizona for No. 6 seed; 40.0% postseason odds per FanGraphs/Baseball-Reference, -105 to make postseason via FanDuel)
The Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks
With Miami and St. Louis now four games back and Pittsburgh another game behind that duo, it's effectively down to Arizona and San Diego for the NL's No. 6 seed. And though it's possible the race could be decided before then, it's looking very likely that the Arizona at San Diego series for games 160-162 will be the difference-maker.
Who holds the edge?
San Diego definitively was the better team in August, but Arizona is about to get a slightly ridiculous influx of pitching help. Corbin Burnes is expected to make his season debut on Tuesday against the Royals, while Zac Gallen, Michael Soroka and Ryne Nelson tentatively could return within the next week. That could be quite an upgrade after the Diamondbacks spent the past few weeks hoping for the best from rookies and openers.
Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove's return to San Diego was delayed yet again, and we're still waiting to hear if and when Nick Pivetta will be back.
The Padres had been my pick since the trade deadline, but things seem to be shifting in Arizona's favor. And if Burnes can even remotely look like his old self, the Diamondbacks could even be a spoiler in the postseason. At any rate, it wouldn't be the first time they made a run as the No. 6 seed.
American League
Cleveland Guardians (tied with Toronto for No. 6 seed; 2.5 GB behind Chicago for AL Central lead; 41.1% postseason odds per FanGraphs/Baseball-Reference, +122 to make postseason via FanDuel)
Toronto Blue Jays (tied with Cleveland for No. 6 seed; 51.7% postseason odds per FanGraphs/Baseball-Reference, -120 to make postseason via FanDuel)
Texas Rangers (2.0 GB CLE/TOR; 3.0 GB Houston for AL West lead; 15.1% postseason odds per FanGraphs/Baseball-Reference, +370 to make postseason via FanDuel)
The Pick: Toronto Blue Jays
One of these things is not like the other, but Texas is one strong week away from catapulting into the mix, either as the No. 6 seed or the No. 3 seed. Considering the Rangers still have on their docket a three-game series at home against Toronto, they definitely aren't dead yet.
Here's the thing, though: That series against a Texas team that is three games below .500 is the toughest thing left on the Blue Jays schedule. They otherwise have six games against 69-74 Baltimore and three games apiece against 68-74 Cincinnati, 65-77 Detroit, 63-80 Kansas City and the 57-86 Athletics.
And whereas Seattle has completely muffed its gift from the schedule makers by losing three straight to the A's, Toronto has already been red hot at 23-12 in its last 35 games and now gets the benefit of clear skies ahead.
A repeat run to the World Series is pretty unlikely. Aside from Dylan Cease, the starting rotation is riddled with question marks, and we are forever waiting for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to look like his old self at the plate. But they really ought to make the postseason.
(For what it's worth, Toronto holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Cleveland.)
Atlanta Braves
2 of 11
Reach Postseason: 100.0%
Reach NLDS / NLCS / World Series: 65.6% / 28.6% / 12.5%
Win World Series: 6.5% / +1300
At the end of play on June 7, Atlanta had the best record in the majors by a three-game margin.
Dating back to July 12, only the Red Sox (33-17) have had a better record than the Braves (30-18).
But things went so sideways for the five weeks in between (9-19) that a lot of people wrote Atlanta out of the World Series conversation; an also-ran compared to Milwaukee and Los Angeles.
If you were one of those folks, it's not too late to reconsider, now that the pitching staff is looking more formidable.
Thus far in the second half, Chris Sale has a 1.90 ERA with 67 strikeouts against just four walks. However, that's nothing new after he (and the bullpen) carried Atlanta through the first half.
The big question was whether anyone else would become a viable second fiddle behind that Cy Young hopeful in this rotation.
To that end, Tyler Mahle had a 1.48 ERA in his first five starts after Atlanta acquired him from San Francisco, and Martín Pérez opened the second half with a 2.04 ERA in his first eight starts.
Is it a flash in the pan, or can those two veterans carry that new-found dominance into the postseason?
If it's the latter, there's more than enough pop in this lineup for Atlanta to do some real damage in October.
Buy/Sell: Buying Atlanta at 28.6% to reach NLCS and at +1300 to win World Series
Boston Red Sox
3 of 11
Reach Postseason: 99.6%
Reach ALDS / ALCS / World Series: 51.9% / 28.4% / 17.0%
Win World Series: 8.0% / +1400
For a while there, Boston was an unstoppable freight train and the clear pick to win the World Series. After starting out 32-46, the Red Sox went 32-5 from June 25 through August 7. Easily one of the most absurd in-season turnarounds in MLB history.
Did they peak too early, though?
Because outside of Mickey Gasper becoming Mickey Mantle out of nowhere and Roman Anthony looking great in his return from nearly four months on the IL, the Red Sox have been low-key mid over the past month.
Adley Rutschman hasn't been the game-changer at catcher that they were hoping for. Shortstop remains a mess—while the Red Sox refuse to call up Franklin Arias to potentially address that problem. The pitching staff that had a 2.79 ERA during that 37-game stretch of dominance has had a 4.23 ERA (and a .500 record) since.
To make matters worse, it's starting to look like they are locked in as the No. 5 seed. That means needing to win a wild card series at Yankee Stadium in order to then run into a Tampa Bay team that has been unflappable at Tropicana Park this season. And that's just to reach the ALCS.
Unless late-June through early-August Boston shows up again, that's a tough ask.
Buy/Sell: Selling Red Sox at 28.4% to reach ALCS
Chicago Cubs
4 of 11
Reach Postseason: 99.8%
Reach NLDS / NLCS / World Series: 50.2% / 23.3% / 10.8%
Win World Series: 6.2% / +1700
Beyond a shadow of a doubt, the Cubs have the offensive firepower to make some real noise in October.
They are leading the majors in runs scored, as well as home runs hit, reaching 200 for the year in the latter department in Saturday's win over the Marlins. And though Pete Crow-Armstrong is the clear leader of the bunch as the NL MVP favorite, everybody 1 through 9 in this lineup can do some damage.
How much run support is this pitching staff going to need, though?
Chicago has averaged 6.3 runs per game over its last 26 contests, but it only has a 13-13 record to show for it, because it is also allowing nearly five runs per game.
That's even with midseason additions Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes and David Peterson fully implemented into the rotation. But Holmes is the only starter in this rotation with an ERA better than 4.82 during that stretch.
The bullpen has also been a mess, with Jacob Webb losing what always was a tenuous grasp on the role of primary closer. It's now a revolving door of trying to play matchups, with Ryan Zeferjahn recently becoming the 14th different pitcher to record a save for the Cubs this season. And "closer by committee" situations rarely if ever work out for the best in October.
Got to like their chances in any short series. But winning a best-of-seven with this pitching staff—let alone two in a row—probably isn't happening.
Buy/Sell: Selling Chicago at +1700 to win World Series
Chicago White Sox
5 of 11
Reach Postseason: 88.3%
Reach ALDS / ALCS / World Series: 71.8% / 32.5% / 15.3%
Win World Series: 6.1% / +2000
We'll say this much before we question Chicago's staying power: The projected path to the ALCS is quite nice. Time will tell if they can ultimately hold on to the AL's No. 2 seed, but getting a first-round bye before drawing the winner of Houston vs. Toronto/Cleveland is about as favorable as it gets.
This is also the American League's highest scoring team we're talking about. The big three of Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery and Miguel Vargas could spearhead an offensive charge deep into October.
Does anyone realistically believe in this pitching staff, though?
In August alone, the White Sox used 10 different starting pitchers. The only one of the bunch to do so with a sub-4.29 ERA was Sean Newcomb—who made three scoreless appearances as an opener and almost certainly isn't going to be part of the postseason rotation.
Luis Castillo made one phenomenal start against the Reds, but has otherwise been a disaster with a 7.52 ERA since the White Sox traded for him.
As a result, Chicago allowed 140 runs in August, going 14-14 overall as they forever hover between three and nine games above .500.
It's an unbelievable story that they're (most likely) going to reach the postseason after three straight seasons of at least 100 losses. But it's probably not going to be an unforgettable October for the White Sox.
Buy/Sell: Selling White Sox at 32.5% to reach ALCS
Houston Astros
6 of 11
Reach Postseason: 89.9%
Reach ALDS / ALCS / World Series: 59.8% / 29.3% / 12.5%
Win World Series: 4.7% / +2000
While Boston's recovery from a brutal start to the season seemed to happen in one fell swoop, Houston's revival has been much more of a slow burn, kind of quietly sitting at 14 games over .500 since reaching their lowest point in mid-May.
And, well, it's a slow burn because the starting rotation has been an unreliable mess with an ERA just a shade under 5.00 over the last 92 games.
Hayden Wesneski has given the Astros solid work since returning from Tommy John surgery in late July. Hunter Brown also has a sub-3.00 ERA over his last eight starts. But Peter Lambert has come crashing back to earth and no one else who they've deployed has even been passable.
We've gotten to the point where Houston's best option in a do-or-die Game 3 of the wild card round might be a bullpen game.
That having been said, their bullpen has been arguably the best in baseball over the past three months.
Josh Hader has a 0.69 ERA since making his season debut on June 3. And, for whatever reason, Hader's return was the shot in the arm that Bryan Abreu needed, boasting a 1.51 ERA compared to a 7.91 mark across his first 22 appearances. Steven Okert has also been quite the asset with 45 strikeouts against just four walks in his last 39 outings.
If they get a lead in the sixth inning or later, they probably aren't blowing it. And goodness knows the Astros have some guys who can hit in October, most notably Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve. They could at least make it an eighth ALCS appearance in the past decade, given their projected path of Toronto/Cleveland and Chicago. (There's still a good chance they secure a first-round bye, too, just 1.5 games behind the White Sox.)
Buy/Sell: Buying Astros at 29.3% to reach ALCS
Los Angeles Dodgers
7 of 11
Reach Postseason: 100%
Reach NLDS / NLCS / World Series: 91.9% / 54.3% / 32.4%
Win World Series: 20.9% / +175
You probably noticed immediately that the betting line and the forecasting models aren't even remotely in agreement here.
The +175 line from FanDuel suggests a 36.4 percent chance of winning the World Series, while the consensus from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference is that there's a 32.4 percent chance the Dodgers will even make the World Series.
And, well, at 28-26 since the beginning of July with a real possibility they won't even receive a first-round bye, we're inclined to agree with the forecasting models on this one.
Granted, we've seen this song and dance from the Dodgers before.
They went 25-27 between July and August of last season before finishing with a flourish (15-5 in final 20 games) and repeating as World Champs. They also sputtered to a 19-19 record from early July through mid-August in 2024, but went 26-12 over the final six weeks of the regular season.
If the light bulb suddenly comes on tomorrow and they go on a rampage fueled by a favorable schedule and one of the most stacked starting rotations in recent history, we won't exactly pretend to be shocked.
As things stand, though?
With Shohei Ohtani slumping at the dish (and injured), Kyle Tucker struggling all season long, Andy Pages on the shelf and a bullpen that simply hasn't been good since the All-Star break?
Thanks, but no thanks.
Buy/Sell: Selling Dodgers at +175 to win World Series
Milwaukee Brewers
8 of 11
Reach Postseason: 100%
Reach NLDS / NLCS / World Series: 96.4% / 52.9% / 26.0%
Win World Series: 15.1% / +650
Over the past few years, the Brewers have been the most consistently solid regular-season team. Since the beginning of 2023, they rank first in the majors in ERA, second in on-base percentage, second in total wins and fifth in total runs scored.
For some reason, though, that keeps going out the window in October, ranking dead-last in on-base percentage (.295), dead-last in scoring (3.0 R/G) and slightly worse than average in ERA (3.98) among the 12 teams who have played at least 12 games across the past three postseasons.
Scoring a grand total of four runs while getting swept out of last year's NLCS was the epitome of brutality for them, but it also wasn't a particularly new development for the thrice-reigning NL Central champions who are 5-16 overall in their past six playoff appearances.
Maybe this is the year it changes and they finally break through for their first World Series appearance since 1982?
But Kyle Harrison, Dustin May, Shane Drohan and Robert Gasser have all struggled in recent weeks, leaving all sorts of question marks about this postseason rotation—aside from Jacob Misiorowski, of course.
What's more, the fact that the Brewers have spent most of this season ranked dead last in the majors in home runs has been a growing concern about their staying power in October.
We want to believe in the team with the best record in baseball, but it also feels like Lucy Van Pelt is holding the football here.
Buy/Sell: Selling the Brewers at +650 to win World Series, but buying them at 52.9% chance of reaching NLCS
New York Yankees
9 of 11
Reach Postseason: 100%
Reach ALDS / ALCS / World Series: 57.9% / 31.9% / 18.8%
Win World Series: 8.8% / +850
There are two gigantic questions we'd love to have answered about the Yankees before making any proclamations about their October potential.
The first is whether they can overtake Tampa Bay to win the AL East.
The Yankees have been a wild card team 10 times in franchise history, and they failed to reach the World Series all 10 times. And this season in particular, the difference between being the No. 1 seed and the No. 4 seed feels massive.
The bigger question, though, is the status of Aaron Judge.
He hasn't played since May 31 and had a very un-Judge-like .550 OPS in his final 16 games before landing on the IL with the rib injury. But there's a non-zero chance he'll return this week, as well as a non-zero chance he quickly gets back to looking like the superstar who won three of the past four AL MVPs.
If that happens, New York might be able to get the coveted No. 1 seed, but could cruise through the AL half of the bracket either way.
The Yankees were averaging 5.2 runs per game with Judge compared to barely 4.0 without him. Yet, their pitching has been so good over the past two months that they've still been one of the better teams without him. Getting an infusion of his bat into the lineup would be huge.
For now, though, it looks like they're destined to face Boston in the wild card round. And, for now, it would be foolish to just assume Judge is going to return good as new. That one-two punch makes it tough to endorse the Yankees as the AL team most likely to win the World Series.
Buy/Sell: Selling Yankees at +850 to win World Series
Philadelphia Phillies
10 of 11
Reach Postseason: 99.7%
Reach NLDS / NLCS / World Series: 52.4% / 25.0% / 12.3%
Win World Series: 7.1% / +1400
At 23-9 since the beginning of August, the Phillies have been the hottest team in baseball as of late.
What has changed?
For starters, their "other" starters have been on point. Andrew Painter entered August with a 6.72 ERA while Aaron Nola was at 5.61. The Phillies were a combined 12-25 when either one pitched. But they've been at 3.15 and 2.65, respectively, since then, with the Phillies going 8-4 in those games.
They've also gotten major contributions from hitters other than Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Alec Bohm has turned his season around, batting .330 over his last 30 games. Justin Crawford is also hitting nearly .300, as is Luis Arraez since they added him to the mix.
And that has been the X-factor with this team all season long: Who shows up aside from the main six stars?
When the supporting cast is making big contributions, the Phillies have a chance to do something special.
The problem, however, is that they're probably not going to win the NL East. As things currently stand, they would need to go through the Cubs, the Brewers and probably the Dodgers just to reach the World Series.
With as hot as they've been, that's plausible. But it's a tough ask.
Buy/Sell: Selling Philadelphia at +1400 to win World Series
Tampa Bay Rays
11 of 11
Reach Postseason: 100%
Reach ALDS / ALCS / World Series: 90.5% / 44.2% / 22.0%
Win World Series: 8.8% / +1000
Let the record show that a Rays-Dodgers World Series would be the perfect launching pad into an offseason spent arguing about a salary cap.
Can Tampa Bay get there, though?
For the time being, there is about a 14 percent chance the Rays fail to win the AL East. If that happens, their path to the World Series becomes much more difficult, most likely needing to face Boston in the wild card round before running into the Yankees in the ALDS—with New York holding home-field advantage and a rested pitching staff. We would wish them the best of luck with that.
But if they are able to keep the Yankees at bay and secure the No. 1 seed, their above percentages should increase considerably. At that point, they would have home-field advantage in a best-of-five series against (most likely) whomever survives a Yankees-Red Sox wild card clash.
Getting home-field advantage is big for anyone, but it would be huge for the Rays, sitting at 47-25 in games played at Tropicana Field this season, including a combined 8-2 record against the Yankees and Red Sox.
They would also have home-field advantage—and would figure to be the clear favorite—in the ALCS against whomever emerges from what is shaping up to be, by far, the weakest quadrant of the postseason bracket.
Long story short, it feels like there's about a 40 percent chance they'd win the ALCS if they end up as the No. 1 seed, which they should.
And from there, who knows? They've been much more potent on offense since adding Liam Hicks at the trade deadline and since Chandler Simpson started doing his best Ichiro Suzuki impersonation.
Buy/Sell: Buying the Rays at 22.0% chance of reaching World Series and at +1000 to win World Series
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