Comparing Mel Kiper, ESPN and Charles Davis' Latest NFL Mock Drafts Ahead of 2026 NFL Draft

With the 2026 NFL draft less than three weeks away, we're beginning to get a little clarity about how the opening round might unfold. Nothing is certain at this point, of course, and it only takes one trade or surprise pick to create chaos. However, the first couple of picks, at least, may be settled.

The Las Vegas Raiders are widely expected to take Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall selection, even after signing Kirk Cousins. As ProFootballTalk's Michael David Smith recently pointed out, Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese has become a heavy favorite to land with the New York Jets at No. 2.

Mendoza and Reese were, indeed, the first two selections in the recent ESPN collaborative mock draft—constructed by Mel Kiper Jr., Matt Miller, Jordan Reid and Field Yates. They were also the top two picks in the latest mock by NFL Media draft analyst Charles Davis.

Things could get very interesting after the top two selections, though. Here, we'll dive a bit further into these two aforementioned mocks and examine some notable differences and similarities.

Top 10 Comparison

AP Photo/Jay LaPrete, File

Ohio State LB prospect Arvell Reese

ESPN's Top 10 Picks

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (Kiper)

2. New York Jets: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State (Miller)

3. Arizona Cardinals: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami (Reid)

4. Tennessee Titans: David Bailey, LB, Texas Tech (Yates)

5. New York Giants: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame (Kiper)

6. Cleveland Browns: Makai Lemon, WR, USC (Miller)

7. Washington Commanders: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State (Reid)

8. New Orleans Saints: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State (Yates)

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon (Kiper)

10. Cincinnati Bengals: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU (Miller)

Charles Davis' Top 10

1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

2. New York Jets: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State

3. Arizona Cardinals: Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama

4. Tennessee Titans: David Bailey, LB, Texas Tech

5. New York Giants: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

6. Cleveland Browns: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

7. Washington Commanders: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

8. New Orleans Saints:  Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

9. Kansas City Chiefs: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami

10. Cincinnati Bengals: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

Ty Simpson Projections Vary Greatly

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Alabama QB prospect Ty Simpson

The first big deviation in these two expert mocks comes at pick No. 3. ESPN's Jordan Reid paired the Arizona Cardinals with Miami offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa, while Davis paired Arizona with Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson.

Now, it's worth noting that these two mocks took very different approaches. ESPN's group of experts took turns picking players they would personally pursue for the teams in question.

Davis, meanwhile, took a more predictive approach but did not include trades. That would help explain why Simpson went much higher than anyone expects him to go later this month.

"I think Simpson ends up with the Cardinals, even if this is not the spot where they pick him," Davis wrote.

No. 3 probably is far too high for Simpson, who showed elite flashes early in 2025 but struggled down the stretch and has just 15 career starts. He's largely considered a full tier below Mendoza as a prospect, though ESPN's Dan Orlovsky recently stated that he views Simpson as the best QB in the class.

Still, Simpson is a logical target for the Cardinals, who recently jettisoned Kyler Murray and need a new long-term answer. The Bleacher Report Scouting Department recently mocked Simpson to Arizona via a trade back into the first round.

ESPN, though, didn't have Simpson going in the first round at all. Instead, Kiper paired him with the Jets at the top of Round 2.

The Alabama product is likely to be one of the draft's biggest wild cards entering opening night.

Opinions on the Top Receiver Also Vary

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Ohio State WR prospect Carnell Tate

While it's unclear where Simpson will land during the draft, it's generally expected that he'll be the second QB off the board following Mendoza. Things aren't quite as clear when it comes to this year's receiver hierarchy.

Both ESPN and Davis had the Cleveland Browns taking the draft's first receiver at No. 6. However, Davis paired Cleveland with in-state product Carnell Tate, while ESPN's Matt Miller handed the Browns USC's Makai Lemon.

"My top-ranked wide receiver in the class goes to the Browns, who are undergoing a youth movement at the skill positions," Miller wrote. "Lemon can create space for himself and knows how to vary his routes."

The B/R Scouting Department also paired the Browns with Tate. However, it's worth noting that neither Lemon nor Tate is the top receiver on the Scouting Department's latest draft board.

Instead, the Scouting Department has Arizona State's Jordyn Tyson as WR1, albeit with some injury concerns.

"A history of lingering injuries will cause difficult conversations during the draft about how high he should be valued by NFL teams," Dame Parson of the B/R Scouting Department wrote.

Tyson was the second receiver taken in Davis' mock and the third taken in the ESPN mock. He was also the second taken in the Scouting Department's mock and a top-10 pick in both the B/R mock and Davis' mock.

It'll be interesting to see if the opinions on Tyson change in the coming weeks. He's been dealing with an ongoing hamstring injury but is scheduled to work out for teams on April 17. If he can erase injury concerns there, he may establish himself as the consensus top receiver.

For now, though, there is no consensus at the top, other than the view of Tate, Lemon, and Tyson as the top three.

Love Looming as a Top-Five Lock?

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Notre Dame RB prospect Jeremiyah Love

Four of the top five selections in the ESPN and Davis mocks were the same, with Arizona's selection being the outlier. It certainly isn't surprising to see a second edge-rusher in the top five (David Bailey), but fans may be a little more surprised to see Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love up there.

Running backs, even elite ones, are rarely drafted in the top five. Saquon Barkley was the last, and he was taken back in 2018.

However, Davis and Kiper both believe that Love is a special prospect who makes sense for the New York Giants at No. 5.

"I know, I know. Kiper doesn't like early-pick running backs," Kiper wrote. "But Love is so much more than just a running back. He's a dynamic playmaker who could elevate Jaxson Dart and this Giants offense to another level."

There's a non-zero chance that Love isn't even available by the time New York is on the clock. He went to the Tennessee Titans at No. 4 in the B/R Scouting Department's mock.

"The improvement of Cam Ward's offensive ecosystem should be high on the Titans' to-do list," Parson said. "Love is an elite prospect with a special combination of running and receiving traits to impact the game on all three downs. He is an explosive homerun threat anytime he touches the football."

While running backs are often viewed as interchangeable, Love isn't just a starting-caliber prospect. The second-ranked overall prospect on the B/R board has All-Pro potential. It may be too early to call him a top-five lock, but it'll be mildly surprising if he's available for teams like the Washington Commanders (No. 7 overall) and Cincinnati Bengals (No. 10).