Ty Simpson Concern, Draft Value Addressed by Anonymous NFL Coach, GM amid 2026 NFL Draft Rumors

As the debate rages on about whether or not Ty Simpson is going to be a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL draft, one of the big question marks that talent evaluators in the league are still figuring out is how much to weigh his limited starting experience against him.

Speaking to ESPN's Jeff Legwold, one NFC general manager explained that there are "a lot" of coaches and executives who are likely taking a hard look at a quarterback with fewer than 20-25 college starts under their belt.

"If you do have [a threshold] you stick to, I would think a lot of people are in the 20s somewhere," the GM said. "A few probably aren't worried as much as others, but I know a lot of guys who are looking hard if it's under 25 or 20."

The same general manager added that they think "there is something" to the notion of a large sample size because it's all data, which is what teams are evaluating in trying to determine if a prospect can be successful at the NFL level.

"Sometimes the mistakes you make in evaluation are because you try to take a small sample size and make the bigger prediction. ... Maybe sample size just matters a lot more than we'd like it when we're trying to find that guy," the NFC GM told Legwold.

There is an AFC head coach who told Legwold that Simpson, or at least someone in Simpson's camp, "heard" what the discussion about him was prior to declaring for the draft after he struggled down the stretch at Alabama:

"[Simpson] obviously heard, or his reps heard, what people thought of him before he entered the draft. He knew at least something back in January or he goes back [to school]. This didn't sneak up on him and people in the league, he understands the class and where he might fit."

B/R's NFL scouting department released its latest mock draft on Tuesday, with Simpson projected to land with the Arizona Cardinals at No. 26 overall in a trade up with the Buffalo Bills.

Dame Parson noted in his writeup about Simpson's fit with the Cardinals that they have the "offensive infrastructure for a young quarterback to properly develop with head coach Mike LaFleur, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and quarterbacks coach Matt Schaub."

Simpson is unique among quarterbacks in that he's not a young prospect, despite having just one full season of starting experience. He will enter the NFL as a 23-year-old because he stayed Alabama for four years, despite playing behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe in his first three seasons.

Given the keys to the offense for the first time in 2025, Simpson had a great start with 2,461 yards, 21 touchdowns, one interception and a 66.9 completion percentage in his first nine games.

The final six games, though, saw Simpson throw for 1,106 yards, seven touchdowns, four interceptions and a 60.4 completion percentage. He ended the year with a dud, finishing with 67 yards in Alabama's 38-3 loss to Indiana in College Football Playoff quarterfinal.

Some of those struggles can be attributed to numerous injuries Simpson was dealing with down the stretch.

If Simpson were to be selected in the first round, his 15 college starts would be the fewest by a quarterback drafted on day one since 2023 when Anthony Richardson went No. 4 to the Indianapolis Colts after making 13 starts in three years at Florida.

Legwold noted there have been nine quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2006 who made fewer than 20 college starts. Ryan Tannehill, Kyler Murray and Cam Newton are the only players from that group who signed a second contract with the team that originally drafted them.

The others are Mac Jones, Trey Lance, Mark Sanchez, Dwayne Haskins Jr. and Mitchell Trubisky.

Four of them made at least one Pro Bowl, with Newton being the only one to make an All-Pro team.

Fernando Mendoza, the presumptive No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft, made 34 career starts over three seasons between California and Indiana.

Given the lack of depth at quarterback in this draft, Simpson seems like the safest bet to be the second one off the board. There just doesn't appear to be a strong consensus about his readiness to step in at the NFL level due to his limited starting experience at Alabama.