Realistic Expectations for 1st-Year Head Coaches After Early 2026 NFL Free Agency

The NFL's coaching carousel spins annually at a speed that gives blenders vertigo, and the 2026 offseason was no different—we came one team away from needing to take off our shoes to count the number of franchises that will be rolling out a new head coach in September.

Those coaches run the gamut. Two have won Super Bowls. Another was a two-time Coach of the Year. Six have never been head coaches before. Odds that a few will wind up being good hires—maybe even franchise-altering ones. A few will be OK—they won't cripple an organization, but they won't resurrect either. And a few will just be…bad.

Of course, a coach is only as good as the players at his disposal—you can be the greatest mind ever to grace the sport, but if your players stink, things aren't going to end well. If that's a head coach's worst enemy, the second-worst may be the weight of expectations—especially if those expectations are only marginally grounded in reality.

With free agency over a week old, many of the situations those first-year coaches find themselves in have changed in a big way. With that in mind, we're going to anchor some of those expectations to realism.

There's no possible way that makes anyone angry.

Arizona Cardinals: Mike LaFleur

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

Realistic Expectation: 5-12

Given that the Arizona Cardinals were one of the last teams to fill their coaching vacancy, landing Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur was something of a coup—a keen offensive mind and member of the Sean McVay coaching tree.

Last year was a mess in Arizona—the Cardinals won just three games and lost their last nine contests. But while speaking to reporters, LaFleur said that the past is the past and these Cardinals are going to live in the now.

"Every year is a blank slate," LaFleur said. "I'm not worried about what our record was. The record last year, all that means is we have a higher draft pick. That's all that really matters at that point. We have to go to work to build this roster. Even if we were flipped and it was 14-3, guess what? You go right back to work."

Putting last year as far in the rearview mirror as possible is wise. But many of the problems that led to last year's faceplant remain. There's uncertainty under center after Kyler Murray was released. The dead money left over from that deal meant a quiet free agency period for the Redbirds. And while the Cardinals have the third pick in April's draft, the team has holes on both sides of the ball—especially on a defense that was 27th in the NFL in 2025.

Doubling last year's win total would be just about a best-case scenario—but adding even a couple of victories would be a step forward for a team once again embarking on a rebuild.

Atlanta Falcons: Kevin Stefanski

AP Photo/Mike Stewart

Realistic Expectation: 9-8

It didn't take Kevin Stefanski long to find a new home after being let go by the Cleveland Browns—and after the two-time NFL Coach of the Year landed with the Atlanta Falcons, Stefanski told reporters he was determined to get Atlanta back in the postseason.

"I'm beyond thrilled to be charged with leading this iconic franchise," said Stefanski. "I am grateful to Mr. Blank and Matt Ryan for trusting me to coach this football team and there are many talented players on our roster that I cannot wait to coach. We share a vision for this football team that I believe will make Falcons fans everywhere proud. We will get to work immediately putting together a first-class coaching staff and working hard to get to know all the great people that are so important to getting us all where we want to go."

The Falcons aren't without talent—this is a team that won eight games last year despite issues at quarterback. The offense has more than a little talent at the skill positions. The new regime attempted to address those issues under center by bringing in Tua Tagovailoa.

But outside that move, the Falcons were relatively quiet in free agency. A pass rush that was vastly improved a year ago is once again a major question mark after second-year pro James Pearce's offseason arrest for multiple felonies. The linebacker position took a hit with the departure of veteran Kaden Elliss.

In a weak NFC South, it's possible that the Falcons could peel off 10 wins to win the division. But the more likely scenario is a team that's neither markedly better nor markedly worse than a year ago.

Baltimore Ravens: Jesse Minter

AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough

Realistic Expectation: 12-5

It has been quite the offseason in Baltimore.

After missing the playoffs a year ago, the team fired long-time head coach John Harbaugh and replaced him with Los Angeles Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. Then the team made major waves by backing out of a blockbuster trade with the Las Vegas Raiders at the last second.

Team owner Steve Biscotti told reporters that he expects Minter to lead the Ravens back to the postseason in short order.

"Jesse was impressive throughout our incredibly thorough interview process," Bisciotti said. "He clearly understands the values, high expectations and history of the Ravens, and he has great vision for the future. Jesse's football acumen is outstanding, and that's been proven by the impact he's made throughout his entire coaching career. He's also a leader who will authentically connect with our players and inspire them to championship levels."

On paper, the Ravens have the best roster in the AFC North, led by a two-time MVP quarterback in Lamar Jackson. Baltimore may have bailed on acquiring star edge-rusher Maxx Crosby, but Trey Hendrickson wasn't a bad consolation prize.

But this is a team that is expected to do more than just make the postseason. The Ravens are expected to make a real run at Super Bowl LXI. Baltimore's pass defense has been atrocious over the past two years, with the unit most recently ranking 30th in 2025. There were losses in free agency as well—most notably the departure of Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum.

The Ravens have an excellent chance of making the playoffs, but this team could win a dozen games, and Minter's first season will still be viewed as a failure if the Ravens bow out early in the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills: Joe Brady

AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes

Realistic Expectation: 12-5

John Harbaugh wasn't the only surprise firing in 2026—after coming up short of the Super Bowl once again, the Buffalo Bills showed Sean McDermott the door. Rather than hire from the outside, the Bills promoted from within, giving offensive coordinator Joe Brady the big chair.

It was a move that met with the approval of quarterback Josh Allen.

"[Brady's] one of the most positive guys in the building," Allen told reporters. "He's always got juice and energy for the guys. I think that's something that we love and appreciate about him, and he's as real as they come."

Brady offers a measure of continuity to a team that was hardly floundering—the Bills won 12 games in 2025. Buffalo endeavored to give Allen the "go-to" wideout the team badly needed with a trade for D.J. Moore. Buffalo also tried to bolster the pass rush with the addition of edge-rusher Bradley Chubb.

If Moore can recapture his form from 2023, an offense that was already fifth in total offense and fourth in points scored could be that much more lethal. If Chubb's arrival boosts a defense that managed just 36 sacks a year ago, the Bills could be one of the most balanced and dangerous teams in the AFC.

But there also isn't a first-year head coach in the league under more pressure than Brady. The expectation for the Bills is a trip to SoFi Stadium in February to play in Super Bowl LXI.

The inability to meet that expectation is why McDermott got the boot.

Cleveland Browns: Todd Monken

AP Photo/David Richard

Realistic Expectation: 6-11

From high expectations to no expectations.

The past couple of years for the Browns have been very Cleveland—back-to-back last-place finishes after their surprising playoff run in 2023. That was enough to cost Kevin Stefanski his job, and when the dust settled, the franchise settled on Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken as the team's next head coach.

While addressing the media, Monken said that he intends to bring out the best in his players in his first go-round as a head coach.

"One of the things that our staff, including myself, have been able to do is take advantage of what a player can do and not what they can't do," Monken said. "Every player in the NFL is elite, and they all have a trait, at least one trait that allows them to, I don't want to say this -- allows them to function, play at a high level. You just got to find what that is and not try to put a square peg in a round hole, taking advantage of what they do. And I think that's what we've been able to do consistently."

The issue for Monken is finding the best in a bad roster—at least on offense.

Cleveland's defense should be stout again in 2026—Jim Schwartz or no Jim Schwartz. But the Browns have no real idea if Shedeur Sanders is an NFL quarterback. The offensive line was completely overhauled in free agency. The pass-catching talent is among the worst in the league.

Fans expecting this team to be markedly better than it was a year ago are setting themselves up for disappointment.

Las Vegas Raiders: Klint Kubiak

AP Photo/Ian Maule

Realistic Expectation: 6-11

We won't get too far into what happened with the Las Vegas Raiders last year, if only because it's meant to remind fans that the Pete Carroll "era" in Sin City ever existed.

There likely isn't a team that will look more different this year than last than the Raiders—even with the Ravens ducking out of the Maxx Crosby deal. The Raiders have been one of the most active teams in free agency. They also possess the first selection in the 2026 NFL Draft.

There's also a new head coach in Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. While talking to reporters, Seahawks wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba said that the Raiders are getting a good one.

"Man, they're getting someone special, someone who knows the game, someone who's going to do whatever it takes to win," Smith-Njigba said. "He's an unbelievable coach. I was honored to play with him this year. Just for him to get to know me, get to know what I was like as a player and person, it's something special and something I don't take for granted. So best of luck to him. We're going to miss him."

Kubiak is a keen offensive mind. After adding multiple big-name free agents like center Tyler Linderbaum and linebackers Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean, the Raiders appear headed in the right direction.

But this is also a team that will likely be rolling out a rookie quarterback in Fernando Mendoza. The team's No. 1 wide receiver right now is new signing Jalen Nailor.

Rome wasn't built in a day—doubling last year's win total isn't going to make Raider Nation happy, but that's about as good as it will realistically get.

Miami Dolphins: Jeff Hafley

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

Realistic Expectation: 4-13

While addressing the media at the introductory press conference for new head coach Jeff Hafley, Dolphins owner Stephen Ross said that he is confident that the former Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator is the right man to turn the franchise around.

 "I believe great things are ahead for the Miami Dolphins with Jeff Hafley leading the way," said Ross. "Jeff is an accomplished coach with a proven track record as a leader and motivator. He has tenacity and grit, while at the same time establishing trust with his players in order to get the most out of them. I am excited to see where Jeff leads us, alongside Jon-Eric Sullivan and our entire football operation, as we seek to return the Dolphins to sustained success."

News flash—those great things ain't happening in 2026.

Yes, the Dolphins signed the player the franchise hopes will be its quarterback of the future in Malik Willis. But unless Willis is capable of walking on water, the Dolphins are going to be among the NFL's worst teams—because there's nothing around him.

Miami's veteran purge has been jaw-droppingly thorough—a staggering 60 percent of Miami's cap in 2026 is dead money after the release of stars like quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill and the trade that sent wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to Denver.

That trade netted the Dolphins a second first-round pick, but make no mistake—this is the first stage of a ground-up rebuild.

And you'll be able to count their wins on one hand—and have fingers left over.

New York Giants: John Harbaugh

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

Realistic Expectation: 9-8

The biggest name available on this year's coaching carousel was undoubtedly John Harbaugh—a veteran head coach with a Super Bowl ring—who isn't generally looking for work.

He wasn't looking for long—the New York Giants quickly scooped the 63-year-old, hoping to restore respectability to a franchise that has one winning season and postseason appearance in the past decade.

Per Ian O' Connor of The Athletic, Harbaugh has already envisioned returning Big Blue to the top of the NFL.

"I've heard people say the parade in New York is the most incredible thing ever," Harbaugh said. "Coach (Tom) Coughlin told me that, and I have a vision, like, 'Wow, I want it. I want to see that. I want to be in that parade.' But with that being said, what I'm thinking about is what the team looks like that earns the right to be in that parade someday. What do we have to build to get there? That's really what I'm consumed with."

To be clear, the Giants have a young and talented nucleus on offense (if they can stay healthy) in quarterback Jaxson Dart, running back Cam Skattebo, and wide receiver Malik Nabers. The offensive line improved considerably last year. Abdul Carter and Brian Burns are one of the league's best edge-rusher duos. If everything breaks just so in 2026, the Giants could potentially win double-digit games and challenge for a playoff spot. It's understandable that Giants fans are enthusiastic,

But these expectations are supposed to be realistic, not enthusiastic—and the first winning season since 2022 would be a big step toward where the Giants want to be.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike McCarthy

AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

Realistic Expectation: 10-7

John Harbaugh wasn't the only head coach hired this cycle with a Lombardi Trophy on his NFL resume—after a year away from the game following a five-year stint with the Dallas Cowboys, Mike McCarthy is now leading the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Steelers president Art Rooney praised McCarthy as the coach who could seamlessly move the Steelers forward after Mike Tomlin resigned after the 2025 season.

"Throughout his career," he said in a statement. "Mike has demonstrated strong leadership, a commitment to player development, and the ability to adapt and evolve in a highly competitive league. His experience, preparation, and respect for the traditions of this organization align with the values that have defined the Pittsburgh Steelers for generations. We are confident that Mike is the right leader for our football team, and we look forward to working together as we pursue our goal of competing for championships and representing Steelers Nation with pride."

McCarthy inherits a team that won 10 games to become the AFC North champions in 2025. They haven't had a losing season in over two decades. The Steelers are the model of stability. The roster was bolstered with some quality additions by trading for wide receiver Michael Pittman and signing running back Rico Dowdle, safety Jaquan Brisker, and cornerback Jamel Dean.

But the Steelers have been a good but not great team for a long time, and Pittsburgh has the same problem this year that has existed since Ben Roethlisberger retired.

Aaron Rodgers or not, the Steelers don't have a quarterback that makes them a legitimate Super Bowl contender—and there's no clear path to that guy in the short-term.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Tennessee Titans: Robert Saleh

AP Photo/George Walker IV

Realistic Expectation: 5-12

It has been a rough stretch of late for the Tennessee Titans. Last year was the team's second consecutive three-win season. The Titans have lost double-digit games in four straight years.

Titans owner Amy Adams Strunk wasn't successful in her attempts to build a temporal displacement device, travel back in time, and unfire Mike Vrabel. Tennessee chose former Jets head coach and 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to lead the team.

Saleh is widely regarded as one of the best defensive minds in the league, and free agent-signee John Franklin-Myers told reporters that Saleh's arrival in Nashville was one of the things that attracted him to the team.

"Coach Saleh is one of the best coaches I've had, he's a leader of men. He knows how to relate to players." Franklin-Myers said, "He never puts anybody in a box. That's the beautiful thing about Saleh. He's able to get us mismatches and put us in position to win."

The mountain of cap space the Titans had probably didn't hurt.

The Titans were aggressive in free agency, giving big contracts to Franklin-Myers, wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson, and cornerback Alontae Taylor. Tennessee has the fourth pick in this year's draft. Quarterback Cam Ward showed a flash or two as a rookie.

But Ward is far from a sure bet. Even after adding Robinson, the skill-position talent around Ward isn't especially impressive. Neither is the offensive line nor the defense.

We have seen this movie before. When Saleh leads a bad team, it doesn't have a happy ending.