Biggest Risks From Early 2026 NFL Free Agency Contracts

The first wave of 2026 NFL free agency has pretty much concluded before the new league year has even launched. And thus, we've already seen some eyebrow-raising deals that could backfire on the clubs involved. 

Happens every year. 

Here are the biggest risks taken in the first 48-ish hours of the free-agent frenzy. 

Terms and related salary information courtesy of Spotrac

Miami Dolphins Sign QB Malik Willis

AP Photo/Mike Roemer

Malik Willis

Terms: 3 years, $67.5 million with $45 million guaranteed 

The Draw: New Dolphins head coach / former Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley may see something in a 26-year-old former third-round pick who generated nine passing/rushing touchdowns to zero interceptions and posted a 134.6 passer rating in limited action the last two years in Green Bay. With Jordan Love hurt, Willis put on a show late in 2025. 

The Risk: He didn't do much to convince the Titans he was worth keeping around after two seasons, and he didn't do nearly enough for the Packers to abandon the Jordan Love boat. Willis has started just three games the last three seasons, and yet the depleted Dolphins have committed to giving him $21.5 million guaranteed in 2027. 

Prediction: A significant increase in exposure allows defenses to figure Willis out and he fails to become a reliable or consistent pocket passer as a QB1. He's in a backup role somewhere else by 2028, if not sooner. 

Risk Level: High

New England Patriots Sign WR Romeo Doubs

AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

Romeo Doubs

Terms: 4 years, $80 million 

The Draw: The team needed to get quarterback Drake Maye a potential No. 1 receiver in or around his prime, and that very well could be Doubs. Still just 25, he scored 21 touchdowns the last four years in Green Bay. 

The Risk: Doubs was a mere fourth-round pick in 2022 who was never able to sustainably establish himself as the No. 1 target in Green Bay. Even while putting up a career-high (but far from impressive) 724 yards in 2025, he was outperformed by Christian Watson on a per-game basis. But he becomes one of 24 receivers making $20-plus million per year, despite being a possession receiver who is likely best-suited as a complementary weapon. 

Prediction: Doubs delivers just enough for this to not blow up in New England's face, but he does very little if anything to take the offense to the next level in 2026 or 2027 before potentially losing his job beyond that. 

Risk Level: Elevated

Carolina Panthers Sign Edge Jaelan Phillips

AP Photo/Derik Hamilton, file

Jaelan Phillips

Terms: 4 years, $120 million with $80 million guaranteed 

The Draw: Phillips put up a top-20 Pro Football Focus pass-rushing grade among qualified edge defenders in 2025. He's a 26-year-old with first-round pedigree joining a defense in desperate need of a high-impact presence on the edge. 

The Risk: Injuries cost Phillips the vast majority of 2023 and 2024 before the Dolphins bailed, and he was limited to just two sacks in eight games with the Eagles as a rental in 2026. Can he reach the next level? Can he even stay healthy? Regardless, he's now just the 12th defensive player in the $30 million AAV club. 

Prediction: A good-not-great player continues to struggle to consistently deliver and fails to put up elite sack numbers in the coming years. This is his last and only big-money deal. 

Risk Level: Extreme

Las Vegas Raiders sign Edge Kwity Paye

Photo by Jeff Haynes/AP Images for Panini

Kwity Paye

Terms: 3 years, $48 million with $32 million guaranteed 

The Draw: The Raiders needed to replace Maxx Crosby for the time being, and Paye is a former first-round pick who remained relatively healthy and productive in his five seasons with the Colts.

The Risk: Paye has actually put up sub-60 PFF pass-rush grades the last two seasons. In fact, he was that outlet's fourth-lowest-ranked qualified pass-rusher in 2025. He's never had a double-digit-sack campaign and will turn 28 this fall. This is a desperate and cap-rich team pushing the envelope at $16 million a year. 

Prediction: With much less support surrounding him up front than in Indy, Paye struggles to make an impact in Vegas. By the time the team is ready to compete, he's pushing 30 and on his way out the door.

Risk Level: Elevated 

Tennessee Titans Sign CB Alontae Taylor

AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Alontae Taylor

Terms: 3 years, $58 million with $42 million guaranteed 

The Draw: The Titans are trying to build up their defense, and the 2022 second-round pick had a solid 2025 season with two interceptions, two sacks and 6.5 yards per target allowed in New Orleans. Taylor has also proven to be fairly versatile in terms of both skill set and position. 

The Risk: The 27-year-old has actually surrendered a 104.9 passer rating on throws into his coverage the last two years, which is a stark contrast to 76.6 in his first two NFL campaigns. He's intercepted just four passes in 64 games, and he gives up too many home runs. Like the rest of the guys on this list, he's a zero-time All-Pro and zero-time Pro Bowler making elite money, and there's really no getting out of this until 2028 for a team unlikely to contend until at least that point. 

Prediction: Taylor fails to become a reliable No. 1 corner and this is his last splashy deal as a pro. 

Risk Level: High