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Bleacher Report's Expert NFL Super Bowl Picks
It's your last chance to earn some green on NFL games until the preseason late in July. Take your final swings with Bleacher Report's betting crew on the Super Bowl LX slate.
B/R NFL analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell have expanded their analysis beyond picks against the spread for more earning opportunities.
Our panel will provide analysis on prop bets, the over/under total, best defensive performance and the title game's MVP.
Check out our ATS playoff standings and breakdowns for the Super Bowl LX matchup between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks.
Playoff ATS Standings
T-1. Davenport: 7-5
T-1. Knox: 7-5
T-3. Gagnon: 6-6
T-3. Hanford: 6-6
T-3. O'Donnell: 6-6
6. Moton: 5-7
7. Sobleski: 4-8
Lone Wolf Picks: 0-2
Lines are from Action Network as of Wednesday, Feb. 4, at 4 p.m. ET. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
The Details
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When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Expected attendance: 75,000
Early line: Seattle -4.5
Early total: 45.5
Referee: Shawn Smith
New England Patriots injuries to watch: The Patriots have a few key players to monitor in the coming days, most notably quarterback Drake Maye, who's dealing with a shoulder injury. On a positive note, Maye told reporters he has "no doubt being 100 percent" for this matchup.
Edge-rusher Harold Landry III missed the AFC Championship Game because of a knee injury, but he "anticipates" playing in Sunday's contest.
Robert Spillane exited the Patriots' previous outing with an ankle injury, but the veteran linebacker believes he's on track to get back on the field.
Seattle Seahawks injuries to watch: Nick Emmanwori suffered a low ankle sprain at the end of Wednesday's practice, though head coach Mike Macdonald is "confident" the rookie safety will suit up on Sunday.
Keep an eye on left tackle Charles Cross, who missed the final three games of the regular season with a foot injury. He played in the team's two playoff outings, missed a couple of practices last week and returned in limited fashion this week.
Also worth noting, cornerback Josh Jobe popped up on the injury report during the Super Bowl bye week with a foot injury. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been limited at practice, though he's yet to show any ill-effects of an oblique injury suffered before the divisional round.
The ATS Pick
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Patriots: Davenport, Sobleski
Seahawks: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Davenport: Patriots +4.5:
This pick says less about my confidence that the Patriots can win this game outright than it does the number, although there is a legit path to victory for New England.
There's also a path to a blowout win for Seattle, and it's essentially the same: Both quarterbacks have been known to turn it over, and that's how Super Bowl games get blown wide open.
But with two defensive-minded head coaches and two excellent defenses, this has the makings of a lower-scoring slobberknocker. Given that, take the points.
Hanford: Seahawks (-4.5)
Part of me wants to buy into the fact that seemingly no one is backing the Patriots to win this game, but the bigger part of me can't ignore the fact that New England has not played well in the postseason and Drake Maye has been a major part of those struggles.
I don't see those fortunes changing against this Seattle defense.
The Seahawks have been one of the best teams in the NFL at pressuring the QB, whether they blitz or only rush four, and the Patriots have struggled to keep Maye upright.
The Patriots' defense won't make life easy for Darnold either, but I trust Klint Kubiak to have a plan to keep his team's momentum rolling.
The potential for a lopsided Seahawks' win is here.
The O/U Pick
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Over: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox
Under: Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Knox: Over 45.5
The under feels like the obvious pick here given Seattle's top-tier defense, the defense we've seen from New England in the postseason, and the fact that the Patriots have averaged just 18 points per game in the playoffs. However, I think we'll see enough scoring to push this to the over.
Both of Seattle's playoff games involved more than 46 total points, and the Seahawks defense allowed only six points in one of them.
With two weeks to prepare, we'll see enough wrinkles from both offenses to avoid a truly defensively dominated affair.
Moton: Under 45.5
Don't overthink this one. This Super Bowl will be a boring one for those who like to see opponents go up and down the field and score points.
Both teams have defensive-minded head coaches and top-four scoring defenses. Also, the quarterbacks for both clubs have suffered recent injuries.
It's hard to envision either team blowing out the other or eclipsing 24 points, which would be a scenario to take the under.
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The MVP Prediction
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Hanford: Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks
"Super Bowl MVP Sam Darnold" isn't a thought I ever expected to cross my mind, but here we are.
This is somewhat me wanting to see his turnaround complete itself as he takes home the hardware. But I'm also picking Seattle, and betting on the winning team's QB to take home the MVP award is usually a safe choice.
The Seahawks have done a good job protecting Darnold, which should allow him to find Jaxon Smith-Njigba in man coverage early and often.
Kenneth Walker III is unlikely to run the ball well against a stout Patriots defense, so it will all be on Darnold's shoulders. I think he gets it done.
Moton: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
For the first time since Super Bowl LVI, when Cooper Kupp won it, a wide receiver will win MVP.
After averaging less than 12 yards per catch in his first two seasons, Smith-Njigba has blossomed into a big-play receiver, averaging 15.1 yards per reception for the 2025 campaign.
In a low-scoring contest, he's capable of making the game-changing scoring play that puts Seattle over the top for a victory.
Sobleski: Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
The biggest difference between these two quarterbacks is that we've all seen Maye carry the Patriots offense, particularly early in his career when the surrounding cast wasn't nearly as good as it is now.
The same can't exactly be said of Darnold, who has been great at times over the last two seasons.
But if one of these two is forced to take over the game, Maye is the better bet to do it. The 23-year-old is special, hence why he worked his way into the MVP conversation during his second season.
Maye has the makeup to convert a big play when needed, which is why he gets the edge here.
Best Defensive Performance
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Davenport: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Seattle Seahawks
I was tempted to go with Seattle defensive tackle Leonard Williams here—the Seahawks are going to get pressure on Drake Maye in this game.
That pressure is going to force Maye to throw in the direction of one of three Seahawks players in franchise history to be named to three straight Pro Bowls to open his career.
Big-time players come up big.
Gagnon: DeMarcus Lawrence, Edge, Settle Seahawks
I think it will be more of a group effort for the Seattle defense, but I have them winning handily, so it still makes sense to go with a Seahawk.
In this case, you have a veteran pass-rusher who should take advantage of the fact that the Patriots offense and its young quarterback and offensive line may not be ready for this stage.
Lawrence has two sacks, three forced fumbles and four quarterback hits in two playoff games, and I expect him to keep that going here.
Knox: Jaylinn Hawkins, S, New England Patriots
Seeing as how Maye has taken 15 sacks in three playoff games, it's hard not to go with one of Seattle's talented front-line defenders—and I strongly considered Boye Mafe as a sleeper pick.
However, I just get the feeling that a couple of Sam Darnold mistakes are going to keep New England in the game, and safety Jaylinn Hawkins is best-suited to force them.
Hawkins has been relatively quiet in the playoffs thus far, but he tallied four interceptions, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and 1.5 sacks in the regular season.
He might not do enough to actually get the Patriots a victory, but he'll make enough splash plays to earn the defensive spotlight.
Sobleski: Milton Williams, DT, New England Patriots
The Patriots made Williams the highest-paid free agent among the 2025 class due, in part, to his dominant Super Bowl performance a year ago. He's been in this moment and thrived.
Furthermore, he's played his best football since joining the Patriots during the postseason. He applied more pressure against the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game than he has all season.
Don't be surprised if the Patriots let Williams go to work over Seattle's rookie left guard, Grey Zabel. The first-year blocker has been good, but it's not the same when facing that caliber of defender in that moment.
Top Prop Recommendation
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Davenport: Successful Two-Point Conversion (+300)
This writer isn't a huge fan of the analytics-driven "Go!" mentality that pervades today's NFL—if Sean Payton had played things more conservatively in the AFC Championship, the Patriots might well be watching this game on TV.
But we don't need that for this to triple your fun. All that is necessary is for the math to work: a missed extra point, a team to wind up down 11 in the second half—or worse.
This is the game in which coaches pull out all the stops. Just last year, the Kansas City Chiefs converted twice while playing catch-up against the Eagles.
Gagnon: Kenneth Walker III Over 73.5 rushing yards (-110)
With Zach Charbonnet out, I have to think the Seahawks will ride their main guy pretty strongly in such a big spot.
I also expect them to run away with this game, which would amount to a lot of work for Walker, who has averaged 85.2 rushing yards per game in his last five games.
Hanford: DeMarcus Lawrence 1+ sack (+114)
I could have backed any of Seattle's glut of pass-rushers here, but Lawrence has a sack in each of the Seahawks' playoff games so far. Now he gets a shot at a Patriots offensive line that has struggled this season.
If you wanted to lay it on thick, take Lawrence two-plus sacks at +660 or Lawrence to sack Maye and force a fumble on the same play at +1100, as the star edge also has three forced fumbles this postseason.
Knox: Cooper Kupp Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Everyone knows Seattle's passing attack flows through Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Patriots certainly do, and they'll have a plan for limiting him as much as possible. Whether that involves shadowing him with Christian Gonzalez and/or regular double coverage, it's going to open up opportunities for Cooper Kupp.
While the 32-year-old hasn't been a high-volume receiver in his first season with the Seahawks, he's been reliable enough to become a focal point if Smith-Njigba isn't roaming free.
Kupp also topped 35 receiving yards in each playoff game after averaging 37.1 yards per game in the regular season.
Moton: TreVeyon Henderson 2+ catches (+200)
Over the last month, Henderson has faded and struggled to produce in the Patriots offense, amassing 117 scrimmage yards on 29 touches. Averaging four yards per touch since Week 18, he's a risky play for yardage props. However, the rookie running back could be a factor in the short passing game.
Seattle fields an aggressive defensive front that has allowed at least five receptions to running backs in three consecutive outings.
Rhamondre Stevenson is the Patriots' lead tailback, but Maye, who's taken five sacks in three straight games, could look to dump off more passes to both his running backs to avoid negative plays and hits to his injured shoulder.
Sobleski: Cooper Kupp 4+ catches (+139)
Kupp isn't the same wide receiver he was five years ago when he won his first Super Bowl. That's perfectly fine. A combination of experience and opportunity will make him a key performer in this matchup.
First, the Patriots are going to do everything in their power to slow Jaxon Smith-Njigba, as they should. He's the game's best wide receiver. As such, Kupp can be a reliable target for Sam Darnold, which we've already seen to some degree throughout the NFC half of the bracket.
During the regular season, Kupp was targeted at least five times on five different occasions. Darnold has done so in both postseason contests. Also, there's something to say about having been in this moment and not being overwhelmed.
Kupp has produced in pro football's biggest game and knows what it takes to succeed. His contributions will be vital if the Seahawks are to have a chance at winning.
O'Donnell: Rashid Shaheed Longest Rush (+1200)
Kenneth Walker is rightfully the best choice in this market. However, Shaheed has carried the rock 10 times since becoming a Seahawk, two of them going for 30 or more yards. While the explosive WR will be a popular choice to return a kick to the house or get behind the defense for a huge catch-and-run, the best bang for your buck comes here where a perfectly-timed misdirection or trick play could result in a massive payoff. Even a simple end-around, could go the distance against a potentially aggressive Pats D. This is a long shot, but one worth dabbling in.
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