MLB's Biggest Offseason Losers and the Lessons Left Behind

If there are lessons from the biggest winners of the 2025-26 MLB offseason, it's that the New York Mets are still really rich and the Los Angeles Dodgers are still just Really Good at This.

That was easy, but boring, too.

There is more to learn from the winter's biggest losers. Partly because the list of those feels longer and more varied than usual. It's also because of how they've lost, which doesn't necessarily trace back to simple market forces.

One Tool Doesn't Cut It Anymore

Even more so than in recent winters, a shadow of risk-aversion has hung over this free-agent market. Only Dylan Cease received a contract longer than five years, with even Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette settling for short-term deals.

Yet whereas those guys got paid to some extent, the real poster children for the chilly market are Luis Arraez, Eugenio Suárez and Munetaka Murakami.

Each was projected to earn a multi-year deal by MLB Trade Rumors, totaling 13 years and $267 million. In actuality, their final deals came out to four years and $61 million.

It's not quite a Boras Four-level catastrophe, but it still feels harsh. Arraez is a three-time batting champion, while Suárez and Murakami both promise 40-homer upside.

Then again, there's this:

• Luis Arraez: .317 career batting average
• Also Luis Arraez: 1.0 rWAR in 2024, 1.2 rWAR in 2025

This contrast was simply never going to be ignored once Arraez reached free agency. Suárez, meanwhile, is a 34-year-old whose .298 OBP last year reflected a slowing bat. Murakami is younger, but also defensively challenged and guilty of posting strikeout rates near 30 percent in Japan, where strikeouts are less frequent.

The basic read on these guys: their floors stood out more than their ceilings. And with the way things are now, a low floor is scarier than a high ceiling is enticing.

The Qualifying Offer Still Hurts (And So Does Being a Bad Teammate)

Though they can't yet officially be counted among the biggest losers of the winter, it's just a matter of time before Zac Gallen and Framber Valdez land in that bucket.

Whereas MLBTR projected them for deals totaling nine years and $280 million, those ships have almost certainly sailed.

As Gallen and Valdez are the last two free agents out of 13 who got a qualifying offer, the standard QO cautionary tale applies: tying yourself to draft-pick compensation can only hurt.

If there's a solution to the next CBA, it should involve removing the deadline for players to accept or reject qualifying offers. They should always be on the table, giving free agents the option to accept at any time.

Failing that, there are two other lessons to be learned from Gallen and Valdez: don't reject a QO after posting a 4.83 ERA, or after significantly damaging your reputation.

Gallen did the former in 2025, while Valdez did the latter when he seemed to intentionally plunk his own catcher. Frankly, it's the only feasible explanation for why the two-time All-Star lefty is still unsigned.

If so, there's actually a positive takeaway at play: Even in an MLB world gone mad with analytics, being a good teammate still matters.

Unimaginative Big-Market Teams Are Ruining MLB

To circle back around on those aforementioned winners, this is the third winter in a row that "The Dodgers Are Ruining Baseball" fever has gripped MLB. And this time, it's stronger than ever.

But hey, at least they're putting all their money to good use.

One can't say as much about the New York Yankees or Philadelphia Phillies, both of whom made the baffling decision to respond to not-good-enough 2025 seasons with the same message: "Let's run it back."

Granted, the Phillies tried to follow up their $150 million splash on Kyle Schwarber with a $200 million deal with Bo Bichette. But when you go from that kind of aggression to re-signing J.T. Realmuto as a response, you don't get an A for effort.

As for the Yankees, general manager Brian Cashman thinks the run-it-back theme is a you problem, not a him problem. But with Ryan Weathers standing out as the sole new addition to a second-place roster, it is a valid gripe.

Plus, you'd think Cashman would be aware that he invites criticism for being a stick in the mud. His long-time financial edge over his peers is gone, so it behooves him to be more creative. Instead, the Yankees' player development has stagnated, and they can no longer be counted on to compete for the biggest free agents.

Half-In Contenders Are Ruining MLB

Lest anyone think big-market teams are the only ones causing problems, just look at how much goodwill the Detroit Tigers have squandered this winter.

After a long rebuild, they've gone to the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. Nobody had more to do with that than back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, and yet the Tigers' approach to him has been to…entertain trading him and then challenge him to an arbitration fight?

The trade stuff is bad enough, as nobody should want to make the same mistake the Boston Red Sox made with Mookie Betts. Even if Skubal is aiming for the moon with his $32 million filing, the Tigers' $19 million counter tells us that they're perfectly willing to go in front of an arbiter and make the case that the best pitcher in baseball doesn't deserve to be paid like it.

Whereas it's hard to imagine something like this happening under late Tigers owner Mike Ilitch, it feels on-brand for his son, Chris. Detroit hasn't fielded a top-10 payroll since 2017.

It's unfortunately not a unique impulse. Half-in contenders are everywhere in MLB, and other offseason offenders include the Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Guardians.

The Brewers won an MLB-high 97 games in 2025, yet responded by fretting about payroll and trading their best pitcher. The reigning AL Central champion Guardians are on track to cut payroll by tens of millions.

Milwaukee has at least earned some grace for having a really good track record of developing talent. But just like the Tigers and Guardians, the Brewers' offseason has been about stopping momentum rather than building on it.

Nobody thinks teams like these can match the Dodgers dollar for dollar. But if the question is which represents a bigger problem for baseball, one team chasing as many wins as possible isn't as bad as multiple teams chasing only as many wins as they can afford.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.