Predicting Every MLB Team's 2026 Opening Day Starting Rotation, Version 3.0
The biggest name left on this year's free-agent market is left-hander Framber Valdez, who is capable of transforming a team's rotation as an established ace with a long track record of postseason performance.
However, there have still been plenty of notable moves made on the pitching side since the last update to our Opening Day rotation predictions back on Jan. 5.
A major free agency domino finally fell when Ranger Suárez joined the Red Sox on a five-year, $130 million deal, while a trio of blockbuster trades saw Edward Cabrera (Cubs), Ryan Weathers (Yankees) and MacKenzie Gore (Rangers) find new homes.
For now, we've assigned Valdez and a handful of other top remaining free agents to logical landing spots on the way to predicting each MLB team's Opening Day starting rotation for the 2026 season.
In case you missed it: Predicting Every MLB Team's 2026 Opening Day Starting Lineup, Version 3.0
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Merrill Kelly
2. RHP Ryne Nelson
3. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
4. RHP Brandon Pfaadt
5. RHP Michael Soroka
IL: RHP Corbin Burnes, LHP Blake Walston
The X-Factor: Right-hander Brandon Pfaadt posted a 3.27 ERA with 26 strikeouts in 22 innings during the 2023 postseason and was arguably the team's best starter in 2024, but he took a step backward last season with a 5.25 ERA over 176.2 innings. The D-backs gave him a five-year, $45 million extension last March, and he has the upside to be the No. 2 guy on this staff.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Cristian Mena, RHP Yilber Díaz, LHP Kohl Drake, LHP Mitch Bratt
Athletics
2 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Luis Severino
2. LHP Jeffrey Springs
3. RHP Zack Littell
4. LHP Jacob Lopez
5. RHP Luis Morales
IL: None
The X-Factor: Landing a top-tier starting pitcher this offseason was always a longshot for the Athletics, but someone like Zack Littell could make a real difference plugged into the middle of the staff. The former reliever has quietly logged 61 starts over the last two seasons with a 3.73 ERA and 111 ERA+ in 343 innings, and should come with a reasonable $10-12 million AAV price tag.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Jack Perkins, RHP Luis Medina, RHP J.T. Ginn, RHP Gunner Hoglund, RHP Mitch Spence, RHP Joey Estes, RHP Mason Barnett
Atlanta Braves
3 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. LHP Chris Sale
2. RHP Spencer Schwellenbach
3. RHP Spencer Strider
4. RHP Lucas Giolito
5. RHP Hurston Waldrep
IL: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver
The X-Factor: The Braves have recently been linked to veteran starters Lucas Giolito and Chris Bassitt, and both would provide a workhorse veteran presence to a staff that has its fair share of injury concerns and unproven young arms. Something in the two-year, $40 million range might get a deal done for either option.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Grant Holmes, RHP Reynaldo López, LHP Joey Wentz, RHP Didier Fuentes, RHP Bryce Elder
Baltimore Orioles
4 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. LHP Framber Valdez
2. LHP Trevor Rogers
3. RHP Kyle Bradish
4. RHP Shane Baz
5. RHP Zach Eflin
IL: None
The X-Factor: The Orioles have long been the most likely landing spot for Framber Valdez, and now that his market has been whittled down by other potential suitors filling holes in their rotations, it remains the most likely outcome for his free agency. A three-year, $90 million deal with opt-outs after each season could make sense for both sides, giving the O's a bona fide ace and Valdez a chance to revisit the market next winter.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Dean Kremer, RHP Tyler Wells, LHP Cade Povich, RHP Brandon Young, RHP Chayce McDermott
Boston Red Sox
5 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. LHP Garrett Crochet
2. RHP Sonny Gray
3. LHP Ranger Suárez
3. RHP Brayan Bello
5. RHP Johan Oviedo
IL: RHP Tanner Houck, RHP Kutter Crawford, LHP Patrick Sandoval
The X-Factor: With Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo added via trade and Ranger Suárez inked to a five-year, $130 million deal, the Red Sox have completely rebuilt their starting rotation, but holdover Brayan Bello remains their biggest X-factor. From the start of June through the end of August, he had a 2.66 ERA in 101.2 innings, and finding that level of success over a full season would take this staff to another level.
Other Internal Candidates: LHP Connelly Early, LHP Payton Tolle, LHP Kyle Harrison
Chicago Cubs
6 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. LHP Matthew Boyd
2. RHP Cade Horton
3. RHP Edward Cabrera
4. LHP Shota Imanaga
5. RHP Jameson Taillon
IL: LHP Justin Steele
The X-Factor: Would the Cubs playoff run gone differently with a healthy Cade Horton to serve as the No. 1 starter? The 2025 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up had a 1.03 ERA in 61.1 innings over 12 second-half starts before a right rib fracture sidelined him Sept. 27 and kept him watching from the sidelines throughout the postseason.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Colin Rea, RHP Javier Assad, LHP Jordan Wicks, RHP Jaxon Wiggins
Chicago White Sox
7 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Shane Smith
2. LHP Anthony Kay
3. RHP Davis Martin
4. LHP Sean Newcomb
5. RHP Sean Burke
IL: RHP Drew Thorpe, LHP Ky Bush
The X-Factor: After struggling to a 6.66 ERA in 52.2 innings in the three previous seasons, Sean Newcomb broke camp with a spot in a banged up Red Sox rotation last year. The 32-year-old was eventually traded to the A's where he posted a 1.75 ERA in 51.1 innings out of the bullpen, and now he will look for that success to carry over in a return to the rotation for the rebuilding White Sox.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Jonathan Cannon, LHP Chris Murphy, LHP Noah Schultz, RHP Tanner McDougal
Cincinnati Reds
8 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Hunter Greene
2. LHP Andrew Abbott
3. RHP Brady Singer
4. LHP Nick Lodolo
5. RHP Chase Burns
IL: LHP Brandon Williamson, RHP Julian Aguiar
The X-Factor: While he is not projected for a spot in the Opening Day rotation, Rhett Lowder is more than capable of pitching his way onto the staff this spring. The No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 draft debuted with a 1.17 ERA in 30.2 innings over six starts in 2024, but spent all of last season battling forearm and oblique injuries.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Rhett Lowder, RHP Chase Petty
Cleveland Guardians
9 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Gavin Williams
2. RHP Tanner Bibee
3. RHP Slade Cecconi
4. LHP Joey Cantillo
5. LHP Logan Allen
IL: None
The X-Factor: Left-hander Joey Cantillo split last season between the rotation and bullpen, but actually pitched better in his 13 starts (2.96 ERA, 67.0 IP) than he did in his 21 relief appearances (3.81 ERA, 28.1 IP). If he can perform like a No 3/4 starter, it would go a long way in solidifying the back end of the rotation.
Other Internal Candidates: LHP Parker Messick, RHP Daniel Espino
Colorado Rockies
10 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. LHP Kyle Freeland
2. RHP Michael Lorenzen
3. RHP Chase Dollander
4. RHP Ryan Feltner
5. RHP Tanner Gordon
IL: None
The X-Factor: Right-hander Ryan Feltner had a 4.49 ERA in 162.1 innings during the 2024 season, but was limited to just 30.1 innings last season while battling back and shoulder issues. Still only 29 years old and with club control through 2028, he has legitimate breakout potential in a staff that can use all the help it can get even after signing Michael Lorenzen.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Antonio Senzatela, RHP McCade Brown, LHP Carson Palmquist, RHP Gabriel Hughes
Detroit Tigers
11 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. LHP Tarik Skubal
2. RHP Jack Flaherty
3. RHP Chris Bassitt
4. RHP Casey Mize
5. RHP Reese Olson
IL: RHP Jackson Jobe
The X-Factor: The potential remains for a late-offseason addition, with Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito and Nick Martinez among their hypothetical targets, the Tigers also have an in-house No. 5 starter candidate in Drew Anderson. The 31-year-old had a 2.91 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 403 strikeouts in 287.1 innings during a two-year run with the SSG Landers in the KBO before inking a one-year, $7 million deal in December.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Drew Anderson, RHP Troy Melton, RHP Keider Montero, RHP Ty Madden, RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long
Houston Astros
12 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Hunter Brown
2. RHP Cristian Javier
3. RHP Tatsuya Imai (R)
4. RHP Lance McCullers Jr.
5. RHP Mike Burrows
6. RHP Ryan Weiss (R)
IL: RHP Ronel Blanco, RHP Hayden Wesneski
The X-Factor: It's far from a hot take, but Tatsuya Imai is the biggest X-factor on the Astros staff, and one of the biggest in all of baseball. The Japanese League star will be asked to fill the big shoes left behind by Framber Valdez, and after logging a 1.92 ERA with 178 strikeouts in 163.2 innings last year, he is capable of frontline production.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Spencer Arrighetti, RHP Jason Alexander, RHP Nate Pearson, LHP Colton Gordon, RHP AJ Blubaugh, RHP Miguel Ullola
Kansas City Royals
13 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. LHP Cole Ragans
2. RHP Seth Lugo
3. LHP Kris Bubic
4. RHP Michael Wacha
5. LHP Noah Cameron
IL: RHP Alec Marsh
The X-Factor: Left-hander Kris Bubic had a 2.48 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 108.2 innings during the first half last season, looking like a legitimate Cy Young candidate while earning his first All-Star selection. A rotator cuff strain limited him to just two starts during the second half, but if he can return to that form, the Royals could have one of the best rotations in baseball.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Ryan Bergert, RHP Stephen Kolek, LHP Bailey Falter, RHP Mason Black
Los Angeles Angels
14 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. LHP Yusei Kikuchi
2. RHP José Soriano
3. RHP Grayson Rodriguez
4. LHP Reid Detmers
5. RHP Alek Manoah
IL: None
The X-Factor: An ace on the rise as recently as the 2022 season, Alek Manoah has not made an appearance in the majors since May 29, 2024. With Tommy John surgery now in the rearview, he will look to get his career back on track with a one-year, $1.95 million deal. If he pitches well, he has one year of arbitration control remaining, and would give the rotation a major boost.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Chase Silseth, LHP Sam Aldegheri, RHP Caden Dana, RHP Jack Kochanowicz, LHP Mitch Farris
Los Angeles Dodgers
15 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
2. LHP Blake Snell
3. RHP Shohei Ohtani
4. RHP Tyler Glasnow
5. RHP Emmet Sheehan
6. RHP Roki Sasaki
IL: None
The X-Factor: The Dodgers are expected to use a six-man rotation to help keep veterans Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow healthy, while also keeping Shohei Ohtani on a one-start-per-week schedule. That likely means a spring competition between Emmet Sheehan, Roki Sasaki and Gavin Stone, with the "loser" a candidate to fill a key role in the bullpen.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Gavin Stone, RHP Landon Knack, RHP Kyle Hurt, RHP River Ryan, LHP Justin Wrobleski
Miami Marlins
16 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Sandy Alcantara
2. RHP Eury Pérez
3. LHP Braxton Garrett
4. RHP Max Meyer
5. RHP Janson Junk
IL: None
The X-Factor: Even after trading Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers, the Marlins still have the makings of a quality rotation, though it does put more pressure on Max Meyer to deliver on his elite potential. The 26-year-old has a high-octane fastball and generated a 42.4 percent whiff rate with his slider last season, so the pieces are there for the former No. 3 overall pick to break through.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Ryan Gusto, RHP Bradley Blalock, RHP Adam Mazur, LHP Dax Fulton, LHP Thomas White
Milwaukee Brewers
17 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Brandon Woodruff
2. RHP Jacob Misiorowski
3. RHP Quinn Priester
4. RHP Chad Patrick
5. RHP Logan Henderson (R)
IL: None
The X-Factor: With Freddy Peralta traded, the Brewers are relying heavily on Jacob Misiorowski taking a step forward to serve as a second frontline starter alongside Brandon Woodruff. The 23-year-old has as much upside as any young pitcher in baseball, and he logged a 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 16 strikeouts in 12 innings in a multi-inning role out of the bullpen during the postseason.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Brandon Sproat, LHP DL Hall, LHP Robert Gasser
Minnesota Twins
18 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Joe Ryan
2. RHP Pablo López
3. RHP Bailey Ober
4. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
5. RHP Taj Bradley
IL: None
The X-Factor: The Twins have several candidates vying for the final two spots in the rotation, but the X-factor will be Bailey Ober as the pivot point between their two top-tier arms and those less proven options. The 30-year-old went 12-9 with a 3.98 ERA and 191 strikeouts in 178.2 innings during the 2024 season, but saw his numbers dip across the board last year, including a 5.10 ERA and .275 opponents' batting average.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Zebby Matthews, RHP David Festa, RHP Mick Abel, LHP Connor Prielipp, LHP Kendry Rojas
New York Mets
19 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Freddy Peralta
2. RHP Nolan McLean (R)
3. LHP David Peterson
4. RHP Clay Holmes
5. LHP Sean Manaea
6. RHP Kodai Senga
IL: RHP Tylor Megill
The X-Factor: The Mets rotation would get a major boost if Sean Manaea can return to form in the second season of his three-year, $75 million deal. The veteran left-hander finished 11th in NL Cy Young voting in 2024, going 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 184 strikeouts in 181.2 innings, but his ERA spiked to 5.64 last year and elbow issues limited him to 60.2 innings.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Jonah Tong, RHP Christian Scott, RHP Justin Hagenman
New York Yankees
20 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. LHP Max Fried
2. RHP Cam Schlittler
3. RHP Luis Gil
4. LHP Ryan Weathers
5. RHP Will Warren
IL: RHP Gerrit Cole, LHP Carlos Rodón, RHP Clarke Schmidt
The X-Factor: The Yankees addressed their need for quality depth with the blockbuster deal to acquire Ryan Weathers, but equally important will be a bounce-back season from Luis Gil. The 2024 AL Rookie of the Year logged just 57 innings of work in 2025, and tallied almost as many walks (33) as strikeouts (41) before taking the loss with an early exit in Game 1 of the ALDS.
Other Internal Candidates: LHP Ryan Yarbrough, RHP Paul Blackburn
Philadelphia Phillies
21 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. LHP Cristopher Sánchez
2. LHP Jesús Luzardo
3. RHP Aaron Nola
4. RHP Taijuan Walker
5. RHP Walker Buehler
IL: RHP Zack Wheeler
The X-Factor: With Zack Wheeler (thoracic outlet surgery) expected to start the year on the injured list and Ranger Suárez gone in free agency, the Phillies could use a veteran arm to help take some pressure off prospect Andrew Painter at the back of the rotation. After a disappointing season in Boston, Walker Buehler quietly posted a 0.66 ERA in 13.2 innings for the Phillies down the stretch.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Andrew Painter, RHP Bryse Wilson, RHP Jean Cabrera
Pittsburgh Pirates
22 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Paul Skenes
2. RHP Mitch Keller
3. RHP Braxton Ashcraft
4. RHP Bubba Chandler (R)
5. RHP Nick Martinez
IL: RHP Jared Jones
The X-Factor: With current rotation candidates Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Carmen Mlodzinski boasting a combined 29 career starts in the majors, adding a veteran arm to soak up some innings at the back of the staff is a smart move for the Pirates. Nick Martinez could start the season in the rotation and shift to a swingman role in the bullpen where he has thrived in the past.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Carmen Mlodzinski, LHP Hunter Barco, RHP Thomas Harrington
San Diego Padres
23 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Nick Pivetta
2. RHP Michael King
3. RHP Zac Gallen
4. RHP Joe Musgrove
5. RHP Randy Vásquez
IL: RHP Yu Darvish
The X-Factor: The Padres have yet to make an outside addition to replace Dylan Cease in the rotation, and while the return of Joe Musgrove provides a boost, relying on Randy Vásquez and JP Sears to both occupy rotation spots is a risky approach. If Zac Gallen ends up opting for a short-term deal to rebuild his value, he could be the perfect stopgap addition to this staff.
Other Internal Candidates: LHP JP Sears, LHP Kyle Hurt, RHP Matt Waldron, RHP Triston McKenzie
San Francisco Giants
24 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Logan Webb
2. LHP Robbie Ray
3. RHP Justin Verlander
4. RHP Tyler Mahle
5. RHP Adrian Houser
IL: None
The X-Factor: A reunion with the Giants remains one of the most likely outcomes for Justin Verlander, even with veterans Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser already added. The front office has been busy of late, signing Harrison Bader and Luis Arraez to shore up the lineup, and their willingness to spend makes another one-year deal with Verlander a distinct possibility.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Landon Roupp, RHP Hayden Birdsong, RHP Trevor McDonald, LHP Carson Whisenhunt, RHP JT Brubaker, RHP Blade Tidwell
Seattle Mariners
25 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Bryan Woo
2. RHP Logan Gilbert
3. RHP Luis Castillo
4. RHP George Kirby
5. RHP Bryce Miller
IL: RHP Logan Evans
The X-Factor: After walking batters at just a 3.1 percent clip over his first three seasons in the majors, George Kirby saw that number climb to a career-high 5.5 percent last year and the rest of his numbers went in the wrong direction as a result. His 4.21 ERA was backed by a 3.37 FIP, and he can be right back to pitching like a frontline starter with slightly better command and improved luck.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Emerson Hancock, RHP Cooper Criswell, RHP Dane Dunning
St. Louis Cardinals
26 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. LHP Matthew Liberatore
2. RHP Dustin May
3. RHP Michael McGreevy
4. RHP Andre Pallante
5. RHP Richard Fitts
IL: None
The X-Factor: While the top three spots on the Cardinals staff appear to be locked, the final two are wide open heading into camp, with newcomers Richard Fitts and Hunter Dobbins set to compete with incumbent starter Andre Pallante and potential reliever-turned-starter Kyle Leahy. This season will be all about assessing roster pieces for long-term potential, so expect top prospect Quinn Mathews to get a look by midseason.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Kyle Leahy, RHP Hunter Dobbins, LHP Quinn Mathews
Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Drew Rasmussen
2. LHP Shane McClanahan
3. RHP Ryan Pepiot
4. LHP Steven Matz
5. LHP Ian Seymour
IL: None
The X-Factor: The health of Shane McClanahan is one of the biggest X-factors of any team's rotation. He logged a 3.02 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 456 strikeouts in 404.2 innings during his first three big league seasons, earning a pair of All-Star selections, but he has spent the last two years on the sidelines recovering from Tommy John surgery and a nerve issue in his triceps.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Joe Boyle, RHP Yoendrys Gómez, LHP Joe Rock, LHP Ken Waldichuk, RHP Brody Hopkins
Texas Rangers
28 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Jacob deGrom
2. RHP Nathan Eovaldi
3. LHP MacKenzie Gore
4. RHP Jack Leiter
5. RHP Kumar Rocker
IL: LHP Cody Bradford
The X-Factor: The decision to bring aboard Austin Gomber and Cal Quantrill on minor league deals shows the front office is not ready to fully entrust Kumar Rocker or Jacob Latz to hold down a spot at the back of the rotation. The lack of bullpen depth also means one or both of those veterans could fill a relief role, with a chance for their stuff to play up in shorter stints.
Other Internal Candidates: LHP Jacob Latz, LHP Austin Gomber, RHP Cal Quantrill
Toronto Blue Jays
29 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Kevin Gausman
2. RHP Dylan Cease
3. RHP Shane Bieber
4. RHP Trey Yesavage (R)
5. RHP José Berríos
6. RHP Cody Ponce
IL: None
The X-Factor: Right-hander Cody Ponce failed to make his mark during a two-year stint with the Pirates in 2020 and 2021, posting a combined 5.86 ERA in 55.1 innings, but he returns stateside a different pitcher. After three seasons in the Japanese League, he won the KBO equivalent of the Cy Young Award last year, going 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 252 strikeouts in 180.2 innings. A strong spring could convince the club to open the year with a six-man rotation.
Other Internal Candidates: LHP Eric Lauer, RHP Bowden Francis, RHP Yariel Rodríguez
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
Projected Starting Rotation
1. RHP Josiah Gray
2. RHP Cade Cavalli
3. LHP Foster Griffin (R)
4. RHP Brad Lord
5. RHP Jake Irvin
IL: RHP Trevor Williams, LHP DJ Herz
The X-Factor: With MacKenzie Gore traded to the Rangers in a blockbuster deal, it will be up to a healthy Josiah Gray to anchor a rotation that could be the worst in baseball by a wide margin. The 28-year-old was an All-Star in 2023, but Tommy John surgery has limited him to just 8.1 innings over the last two seasons, and he will look to shake off the rust and assume the role of staff ace this spring.
Other Internal Candidates: RHP Mitchell Parker, LHP Andrew Alvarez
