Is Fernando Mendoza a Lock at No. 1? NFL Insider Sounds Off on Heisman Winner Ahead of 2026 Draft

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza may have an unassailable lead in the battle to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft.

ESPN's Josh Weinfuss cited one source who said, "I don't see anyone else going 1."

"It's [Mendoza's], in my opinion," they said.

Mendoza threw for 3,535 yards and 41 touchdowns in 16 starts with the Hoosiers, winning both the Heisman Trophy and a national championship. On its own, that resume would be enough to put a quarterback in the No. 1 pick conversation.

Fernando Mendoza Heisman Reel

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The dearth of good options this year is boosting Mendoza's stock even further.

Four QBs cracked the top 50 in Bleacher Report's most recent 2026 big board. Two of those players (Oregon's Dante Moore and Texas' Arch Manning) are staying in school.

That leaves Alabama's Ty Simpson, Clemson's Cade Klubnik, and LSU's Garrett Nussmeier as some of the biggest competition to Mendoza.

Prospects rise and fall every draft cycle, and that's especially true for the quarterback position. A year ago, Shedeur Sanders had one of the biggest draft-day falls in modern history, while Jaxson Dart steadily climbed to be a first-round pick.

Still, it's tough to single out one player who could overtake Mendoza when he's head and shoulders above his QB peers. The Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals, who own the first three picks, all have a need for a new franchise quarterback as well.

One downside of being the consensus No. 1 guy is that fans and draft experts will have to talk about why Mendoza shouldn't go first overall. Otherwise, the discourse can become monotonous.

But the outcome looks telegraphed well in advance in terms of which player will walk onto the stage first to open the 2026 draft.