The Biggest 'What Ifs' in Tennis During 2015 so Far
Tennis in 2015 has featured Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic ruling their respective tours. With only the U.S. Open to play, they are primed to lock up legacy-defining years. Yet it has not always been that easy. Sometimes, a few points or games have made the difference in winning a huge match or major tournament.
For this article, we are going to look at the five biggest “what ifs” so far in 2015. We will narrow it down to major tournament outcomes because they are by far the most important achievements in tennis.
Which majors could have turned had things gone just a little differently? Which stars could have displaced Serena or Djokovic had Lady Luck decided to call? How could things have been different had the tennis gods intervened with a more random cast for drama?
What If Wawrinka Would Have Won a Few More Big Games at Aussie and Wimbledon?
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Stan Wawrinka has already a created rift in the usual Big Three time continuum. Blame him for denying Rafael Nadal the 2014 Australian Open and Novak Djokovic the possibility of winning five straight times at Melbourne.
While Wawrinka is deservedly toasted for his heroics in toppling Djokovic at the French Open, he was not that far off from competing for the Australian Open and Wimbledon championships. At the former, he had the momentum after winning the fourth set in the semifinals against Djokovic, but he completely fell flat in the fifth set. Had he turned in a French Open kind of set and toppled Djokovic, he could very well have overpowered Andy Murray in the final.
At Wimbledon, Wawrinka cruised into the quarterfinals but couldn’t shake Richard Gasquet, who was in the zone for much of the tournament. Losing the fourth set was the real turning point, but by the end of the marathon fifth set, he could not capitalize on a few deciding big points. He lost 11-9 and a chance to battle Djokovic in the semifinals.
As it would turn out, Wawrinka might be the only player who can legitimately challenge and defeat Djokovic in a big match. Suppose he had won that semifinal?
Maybe he wins the final, but maybe Roger Federer gets major No. 18. It could have happened, but it didn’t, and Djokovic roars on.
What If Roger Federer Would Have Won the 1st-Set Tiebreaker at Wimbledon?
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The “what if” game is a flawed proposition of course. For instance, Roger Federer fans can recall the 2011 French Open when he was in control late in the first set against Rafael Nadal, up 5-3 and with a set point when a drop shot landed just outside the court. From there, Nadal swept through and went on to a dominating four-set victory.
Would the wayward drop shot have changed the match? Perhaps, but from that point on, things would have changed as well. For instance, winning the first set in the 2006 French Open final was ultimately far short of winning the French Open (Federer lost in four sets).
Likewise, we can wonder what if Federer would have won the first tiebreaker against Novak Djokovic in the 2015 Wimbledon men's singles final. Does that mean he would have still gone on to win the second-set tiebreaker in the miracle fashion in which he did? Maybe he would've played better with the relief of getting that first one and cruised to the title. Or maybe Djokovic would've woken up and crushed Federer in the next three sets.
If we assume that Federer did win the first two sets in tiebreakers, this is where it gets interesting. Djokovic’s post-second set tantrum on the sidelines, shirt off and eating something with the kind of anger that would win wars might have become a spectacular meltdown from which he might not have recovered. Right?
Then again, think back to the 2011 U.S. Open semifinal, when Djokovic rose from the dead, two sets down and facing match points, to win the match and ultimately the title. The lesson, as always, is that Djokovic is very tough to kill off.
Yes, it’s possible Federer could have won No. 18, but I’m more inclined to think he might have needed that assist from Stan Wawrinka mentioned in the previous slide.
What If Victoria Azarenka Would Have Been in Better Tennis Shape?
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It’s been a long road back for former No. 1 and two-time Australian Open winner Victoria Azarenka. Since injuries in early 2014, she has had to fight through tougher early-round matches in tournament brackets and has slowly made her way back to No. 19 in the WTA rankings.
Her competitive spirit burns with a fierceness few others possess, so there she was up a set on Serena Williams in the third round of the French Open, flashing some of her best tennis. Except she ran out of gas. Losing the second set 6-4, she simply could not garner the energy to challenge for the third set.
Then, there was the rerun at Wimbledon's quarterfinal. Once again, she was up a set and battling Serena in a hotly contested second set. Yes, Serena lifted her game, but Azarenka was still not in tennis shape. Her footwork slowed down and there was fatigue in her shots.
What if Azarenka was in top form, more like the way she played in 2012-13? Could she have defeated Serena in one of those two matches, thereby denying Serena her second Serena Slam? It’s possible, if not likely.
What If Novak Djokovic Could Have Dominated the 2nd Set of the French Open?
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After Novak Djokovic whitewashed Rafael Nadal in the French Open quarterfinals, the championship was his to lose. The world No. 1 has craved the title for years now, and it appeared to be his after he cleared a nervy semifinal against Andy Murray. For nearly half of the final against Stan Wawrinka, Djokovic was poised to take complete control of the match.
He had won the first set 6-4, and he forced Wawrinka into a first-game breakpoint in the second set. Wawrinka responded with two great serves, an ace and a body shot to take control and win the rally. Had Djokovic gotten his racket on the break point and capitalized, could he have broken the set and match open?
As it was, Djokovic served at 4-5 but was up 30-0 and seemingly ready to put the pressure back on Wawrinka. Instead, the Swiss hung in to win a couple of rallies before Djokovic sent a wayward backhand wide of the court. The break came after another rally when Djokovic hit long.
That 10th game was the one that got away from Djokovic. A little let up and suddenly the match was deadlocked. It gave the Swiss momentum and confidence to keep with his aggressive game plan, and to hit Djokovic off the court.
Had Djokovic capitalized on that opening break point or held that 30-0 service lead, he would have had a great opportunity to go two sets up. If that had happened, there’s very little chance Wawrinka would've come back to take the title.
Instead, the Swiss is the deserving winner of the most important upset of the year, denying Djokovic a chance at a calendar Grand Slam. That’s the biggest “what if” in men’s tennis right now.
What If 2013 Rafael Nadal Played in 2015?
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OK, this is a stretch, but we need a more full-blooded rivalry to push Novak Djokovic in 2015. Stan Wawrinka has proved to be the only one who will not bat an eye up against the Serbian, even though there are legitimate but lighter challenges from Andy Murray and Roger Federer.
Therefore, we have to go back in time and dig out the 2013 Rafael Nadal. The Serbian and the Spaniard have already spawned the most prolific rivalry in tennis history, and it’s possible the rivalry is over in terms of competing for majors, something we discussed before the French Open.
In 2013, Nadal won 10 titles and was just as dominant on hard courts as he is on clay. He eked out the French Open semifinal against Djokovic but swept through Montreal, Cincinnati and the U.S. Open. Throw in Indian Wells, and Nadal was the best player in tennis.
So how about 2013 Nadal versus 2015 Djokovic? There are all kinds of “what ifs” here. For starters, it’s highly unlikely that Nadal would've been blitzed in the 2015 French Open quarterfinals. Many Nadal fans would insist the 2013 version of Nadal would not lose the 2015 French Open. Debatable.
Furthermore, tennis is more interesting when Nadal is competing at his best level. We just never know what we will get in big matches except that he has a great track record of winning them. It’s hard to see him winning more than the French Open, but the jury will be out after we watch the 2015 U.S. Open.
If Djokovic melts, tennis fans could say, “Well, 2013 Nadal was a lot better than that." If Djokovic steamrolls to the title, tennis fans could say, “Well, 2015 Djokovic is certainly tougher than the 2013 version that blew the third set of the U.S. Open final against Nadal. He’d still take three majors in 2015."
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