5 Surprises We Could See on 2015 MLB Trade Deadline Day
In the last hours before the 2015 MLB trade deadline arrives at 4 p.m. ET on Friday, you should be prepared for anything.
Which, this being trade-deadline season and all, is obviously easier said than done. Sometimes you can see moves coming from a mile away. Other times, the Colorado Rockies trade Troy Tulowitzki to the Toronto Blue Jays. Like the future in Master Yoda's eyes, always in motion are the trade winds.
So, we're here to help out with a few...well, let's call them "fair warnings." Ahead lies a list of five surprises we could see go down before the deadline passes.
We'll order them according to what would be least surprising to most surprising. Step into the box whenever you're ready.
The Yankees Make a Move for a Big-Name...Reliever?
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As you well know by now, most trade rumors have linked the New York Yankees to starting pitchers. And rightfully so, as their starting rotation is a walking (and throwing) illustration of the term "mixed bag."
But what if, instead of their rotation, the Yankees use the deadline to upgrade their bullpen?
That would seem to be missing the point, as right now they have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Yankees relievers lead MLB in FanGraphs WAR, which is mainly thanks to the gruesome twosome of Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller.
And yet, word is the Yankees are pondering the idea of adding a reliever. And maybe a big one at that, as Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has reported on two occasions that they have interest in San Diego Padres flame-throwing relief ace Craig Kimbrel.
Mind you, it doesn't sound like the Yankees are actually going to strike a deal for Kimbrel. They don't want to deal top prospects Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Greg Bird or Jorge Mateo, and the Padres would need one of them to move such a prized asset.
But if not Kimbrel, the Yankees could target a more affordable impact reliever. Somebody like Joaquin Benoit, Francisco Rodriguez or Joakim Soria could be more within their price range, and any of them could help the Yankees accomplish essentially the same thing Heyman notes the Yankees would accomplish by adding Kimbrel:
"While the Yankees already have an excellent pen, an importing of Kimbrel would give them a chance to build a super bullpen to rival the Royals, who rode their pen to the World Series last year and are dominating yet again."
Indeed. And for the Yankees to see their surprise season through to the World Series, this is a pursuit that could serve them better than a pursuit of a starter.
The Indians Decide to Be Bold, Deal 1 of Their Starters
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Alas, the Cleveland Indians have fallen victim to the Sports Illustrated curse. Disappointing, no doubt, but it is what it is, and now the Indians have to figure out a way to make the best of a bad situation.
To that end, here's a possibility: They could sell one of their controllable starters.
The word from Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is that this is something the Indians aren't motivated to do, but Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports has said it's not something they're opposed to doing, either.
As well they shouldn't be. If the rumor mill has made anything clear, it's that there's a huge amount of demand for controllable starting pitchers. You can chalk that up to how few teams have clear paths to the postseason and thus don't want to go all in on rentals.
As for how this relates to the Tribe, their advantage is that they have a surplus of controllable starters. Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco are all locked up through at least 2020, and at reasonable prices to boot. That gives them four of the kind of commodities the market is so fervently demanding.
Thus, the Indians stand to make a killing by dangling one of their controllable starters, and said killing could help position them to win in 2016 and beyond. For instance, dealing a starter could help them find long-term answers at third base, first base and/or in the outfield.
The downside, of course, is that the Indians would find themselves down a talented starting pitcher. But with guys like Cody Anderson, T.J. House and Zach McAllister to fall back on, they could probably survive being down a starter as long as the trade-off were to be a more complete team.
So, keep your eyes on the Indians. If they want, they could benefit greatly from being bold.
The White Sox Keep Jeff Samardzija, Turn into Buyers
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Among the players everyone expects to be traded is Jeff Samardzija, who is a good pitcher who's being wasted on a bad Chicago White Sox team.
Or is he?
After struggling for much of the year, the White Sox are now one of the American League's hottest teams, having won seven in a row. They've leapfrogged the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central standings and are now within striking distance of the AL's second wild-card spot.
In a related story, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has reported that David Price is being traded out of the division to the Blue Jays.
The White Sox may be posturing with Samardzija, or they're now serious about keeping him and going for it.
It could actually prove to be the latter. The White Sox are winning because Samardzija, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon are all pitching well and because their offense has come alive since the All-Star break. If the White Sox can patch up some holes, they could keep this thing going.
Because they don't have much in the way of prospects, it's hard to imagine the White Sox going after any big names. But it's not hard to imagine them targeting a cheap third-base upgrade like Martin Prado or Aaron Hill, and they could also go after a solid reliever like Junichi Tazawa or Brad Ziegler.
Such moves wouldn't cost the White Sox all that much. And given the wide-openness of the AL wild-card race, they could be all the White Sox need to sneak into the postseason.
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The Padres Pull off a Mega-Blockbuster
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For the San Diego Padres, the 2015 season hasn't gone according to plan. General manager A.J. Preller's flashy winter moves have been for naught, resulting in a loser rather than a winner.
But don't think for a second that Preller might now be afraid to make bold moves. Because if he plays his cards right, he could soon make a move that rivals the Troy Tulowitzki deal in flashiness.
That's the vibe that ESPN.com's Jayson Stark is getting, anyway. He hears the Padres are "super-active" and poised to make a "huge deal." If they do, it'll be not because they can, but because they need to.
"Their problem is they completely depleted their system last winter," an unnamed executive told Stark. "And you're not going to rebuild your system by trading [Joaquin] Benoit and [Ian] Kennedy. You do that by making huge deals. And I expect them to make a huge deal to try to get back some of what they lost."
So, what kind of "huge deal" might the Padres make?
Well, let's see. Their big trade chips are Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and James Shields. Rather than trade these guys individually, it wouldn't be surprising if their "huge deal" saw some of them packaged together and sent to the same team for a small army of prospects.
To speculate on a few ideas, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs would probably love a package containing Kimbrel and Ross. The Baltimore Orioles, who are loaded with pending free agents, could go for a last hurrah by doing a deal for Upton and Kennedy. The Boston Red Sox might be interested in rebooting their rotation with a veteran like Shields and a high-upside youngster like Cashner.
Again, this is all just speculation. But if the Padres do plan on doing something huge, trades like these are probably what they have in mind and possibly what they could pull off.
The Giants Pull off a Blockbuster
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The main targets on the blockbuster radar in the NL West are the Padres and the Dodgers. Next to them, the San Francisco Giants look like a mere blip.
But don't sleep on these Giants, man. They might just have something brewing.
Though they haven't gotten as much attention as other clubs, the Giants have been kicking the tires on some big names in recent weeks. Ken Rosenthal had them in on Cole Hamels. Jon Heyman had linked them to David Price. Jayson Stark has highlighted them as a possibility for James Shields. Jon Morosi has mentioned them in connection with Aroldis Chapman.
Could all these rumors just be a case of the Giants doing their due diligence? Yeah, maybe.
But then, it could also be more than just due diligence.
The Giants are in a tight race with the Dodgers in the NL West, which could ultimately be decided by moves made at the deadline. To this end, the Giants can surely see that the Dodgers have already acquired Mat Latos and could move on another big name next. To keep pace, the Giants may need to respond in kind.
One complication is that the Giants don't have the deepest farm system to dip into. But they're not completely broke in the prospect department. Tyler Beede leads a list of quality pitching prospects, and young catcher Andrew Susac is an asset that the Giants can afford to part with (he's blocked by some guy named Buster Posey).
The Giants weren't able to land Price. But they could probably get Shields from the Padres or Chapman from the Reds. At worst, they might target one of Cleveland's starters or try to pry former Cy Young contender Hisashi Iwakuma from the Seattle Mariners.
Strong likelihoods? Probably not. But if there's a team out there ready to play the role of the "Mystery Team," it's the Giants.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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