Odds of Each Top David Price Suitor Pulling off Blockbuster Trade

The Detroit Tigers are not bailing out. 

Not publicly, at least. The company line seems to be that the Tigers are playing to win this season, and that selling the coveted pieces they have is not currently an option. That is what Detroit general manager Dave Dombrowski told ESPN’s Jim Bowden over the weekend, which would indicate they plan to buy before Friday’s 4 p.m. ET non-waiver trade deadline.

“As of today, my sources tell me the Tigers are not selling at all,” Jon Morosi of Fox Sports added on the station’s MLB Whiparound show Monday. “That could change based on their series down in Tampa Bay [starting Monday], but for now, if you talk to the Tigers, they are telling you they feel like they are close enough in the wild-card race.”

That would mean keeping David Price, their ace left-hander who can become a free agent after the season. If the Tigers put him on the trading block, he would become the most coveted pitcher on the market, because he would cost less than Cole Hamels.

Using the Tigers’ recent record as a barometer, which is 1-4 in their last five games, Price’s agent, Bo McKinnis, told MLB Network Radio on Sunday he thinks a deal for Price would go down to the final hours and that he is not overly confident Price will be a Tiger come August.

“So it's kind of hard to say I'm optimistic about us staying,” McKinnis told the show’s hosts Bowden and Jim Duquette. “Yet I have no doubt that Dave's going to drag it to Thursday or Friday. If I was in his shoes, that's what I would do, because this team was set up to win, and it's just kind of hard to throw in the towel.”

That is true considering the age and contracts of some of Detroit’s players, but they are now 12.5 games out of first in the American League Central and 4.5 games out of the second wild-card spot, with four teams in front of them.

If they lose their three-game series against the Rays, minds could change in Detroit and Price could become the next blockbuster-trade target. Several teams are already interested; here are their realistic chances of pulling off the deal, with the No. 5 team being the least likely and the No. 1 team having the best shot:

5. San Francisco Giants

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The defending World Series champions are the long shots of the contenders looking for front-line rotation help. They seem to understand that, as they don’t have the farm depth to truly entice the Tigers, but that has not stopped them from checking in with GM Dave Dombrowski, according to ESPN’s Jayson Stark.

The Giants have graduated so many players to the majors in recent years and traded others in past deadline deals that their system was rated 27th in the majors by Baseball America. Right-hander Tyler Beede is their top pitching prospect, but considering the age and fragility of their big league rotation, they might be hesitant to deal him for a rental like Price. Plus, to get Price, it might also require major league talent.

That is why ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick heard the Giants are a real “long shot” to add any impact pitcher this week, let alone Price.

4. Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays certainly have a World Series-caliber offense, but their pitching is the kind that forces a club to watch the postseason on TV rather than playing in it. That is why they desperately need a top-of-the-rotation acquisition to improve their playoff chances, which currently sit at 24 percent, according to Fangraphs.

Toronto is exactly the kind of club that needs an arm like Price’s, which is why it has at least shown interest in him, along with several other pitchers on the trading block.

The difference between the Jays and the Giants is that Toronto has the prospects to lure the Tigers into negotiations. The Jays have four prospects in Baseball America’s Top 100 rankings, plenty of what it might take to land a front-line pitcher like Price. The problem is that the Jays do not seem inclined to part with those prospects, three of whom are pitchers.

That is likely why the Blue Jays are also interested in second-tier pitchers like Chicago White Sox right-hander Jeff Samardzija and Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Mike Fiers, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, because they would cost less in young talent than the Tigers would probably require for Price.

3. New York Yankees

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The Yankees have rope-a-doped for much of this trade season, insisting a blockbuster trade is not in their future. But rival executives are not buying that load.

“There is no question the Yankees are getting a pitcher,” an American League executive told Joel Sherman of the New York Post, insisting the team’s stance to not make a big trade is a false one.

Add that belief to the fact that the Yankees have two prospects in Baseball America’s Top 100—right-hander Luis Severino and power-hitting outfielder Aaron Judge—and Price is in play much the way Johnny Cueto was before he was traded to the Kansas City Royals. The Yankees also have the money and commitment to contention to entice Price to re-sign in the offseason, even if his price tag reaches the $200 million mark. To make things easier, the Tigers could possibly grant an acquiring team a 48-hour window to negotiate an extension with Price, keeping him from hitting free agency.

What could cause the Yankees to balk is that they are just starting to replenish their farm system after years of signing Type A free agents and trading away prospects in deals much like the one it would take to land Price. Parting with the likes of Severino or Judge might be too much for them to stomach, taking them out of Price’s market and sticking them in a lower tier.

2. Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs are pot-committed to their win-now philosophy.

They signed Jon Lester last offseason, promoted Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber and are willing to move players like Starlin Castro and Javier Baez. All of that points to them being aggressive in the trade market, and that includes being in on Price if he should come available. In fact, the Cubs are already looking at Price as a free-agent target after the season, according to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman.

The Cubs’ system is loaded with talent, and Baseball America ranked it tops in the game entering this season with six players in its Top 100 and four in the top 20. That makes them a player in any trade market as well as a target for selling teams looking to pull teams into negotiations. However, it might not take quite that much for the Cubs to land Price going off what the Cincinnati Reds got for Johnny Cueto—one top prospect in Brandon Finnegan, who was a reliever.

The Cubs have already discussed Price with the Tigers, according to Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago, and it could be expected that they become the most aggressive team pursuing him.

That, however, does not make them the top contender for Price.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

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They have money. They have prospects. They have expendable pitching ready to pitch in the majors now or in the near future. The Dodgers have everything it might take to acquire and keep Price, and they have put him at the top of their wish list, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports.

The Dodgers have already been active in trying to acquire another starter to join Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, and assuming that pitcher is a top-of-the-rotation type, like Price, it would make the Dodgers World Series favorites in the National League. Now that Johnny Cueto is off the market, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports heard that the clubhouse wants the front office to go after Price.

Players don’t make decisions like that, obviously, but the team’s front office expects to make some kind of pitching deal, and they have recently been named one of the front-runners for Cole Hamels.

However, Hamels will likely require the Dodgers parting with top prospects Corey Seager or Julio Urias, which they have continuously put out they will not do. If that is the case, Hamels is off the radar and it puts them in position to be aggressive on Price, who probably would not require them dealing either of those prospects.

Also, with the Tigers willing to grant a 48-hour window to negotiate an extension, and with Greinke expected to opt out of his contract after the season, the Dodgers have the payroll flexibility to make Price a valid offer.

The Dodgers are in World Series-or-bust mode, and snaring Price could land them there. And they know it.