Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Studs and Duds for July 27
Like pitching? Too bad. Monday's MLB slate features a barren wasteland on the mound.
Few hurlers are comfortable plays from the evening's nine games, and the top choices thus receive an immense price uptick. Rather than getting too cute on a bargain-bin flier, spend a little extra on the best of the bunch.
The pitching shortage should produce plenty of offense from a variety of sources. DraftKings players have some tough decisions, so here's a handy guide for the best and worst around the diamond.
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Pitching Studs
Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals ($11,100) vs. Cincinnati
Paying $11,100 for Lance Lynn seems outrageous, but he's the only ace in action.
And no, he's not just an ace in comparison to Anibal Sanchez, Nathan Karns and Edison Volquez. He's a veritable stud brandishing a 2.80 ERA, 2.68 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 26.1 strikeout percentage.
It's one thing when they're vacationing at Coors Field, but the Cincinnati Reds' offense takes a hit away from Great American Ball Park. Their .763 home OPS drops to .721 on the road, a rate which rose drastically after a weekend series in Colorado. Meanwhile, Lance Lynn flourishes at Busch Stadium:
| IP | 368 | 357.1 |
| ERA | 2.64 | 4.11 |
| WHIP | 1.14 | 1.41 |
| FIP | 2.86 | 3.63 |
| wOBA | .276 | .330 |
Pay for peace of mind and use the evening's best hurler.
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs ($8,200) vs. Colorado
Although a volatile selection prone to blowup outings, Kyle Hendricks also owns a 3.23 FIP and 4.65 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Gamers have to hope the guy who allowed one run over four starts shows up rather than the one torched for five runs on Wednesday.
Away from Coors, the Colorado Rockies hit .238/.286/.386 with a .293 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and 24.0 strikeout percentage. He's still not a safe pick, but Hendricks is the best option after Lynn and Chris Heston, who costs $1,300 more.
Pitching Dud
Cody Anderson, Cleveland Indians ($8,100) vs. Kansas City
This pitching slate is so bad. How bad is it? This pitching slate is so bad that Cody Anderson costs $8,100 despite striking out 12 batters through five starts. Oh yeah, he faces the Kansas City Royals, baseball's toughest team to strike out.
He can thank a .224 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for his misleading 1.91 ERA. Hey Cleveland Indians, save some of that defense for Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. Regression paid Anderson a visit last week, when the Milwaukee Brewers tattooed him for 10 hits through 2.2 innings, but expect more on Monday.
Hitting Studs
Stack: San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee (RHP Kyle Lohse)
The typically reasonably priced San Francisco Giants square off against Kyle Lohse, who is enduring a nightmarish season with a 6.29 ERA and .514 opposing slugging percentage. Lefties and righties alike both rake against the laboring veteran.
Buster Posey leads the brigade as the premium catcher, and Hunter Pence is highly priced now that he's healthy and back to his own ways. The Giants also contain several infield bargains for below $4,000:
| OF | Hunter Pence | $4,700 | .370 |
| C/1B | Buster Posey | $4,300 | .383 |
| 1B | Brandon Belt | $3,900 | .358 |
| SS | Brandon Crawford | $3,900 | .346 |
| 2B | Joe Panik | $3,700 | .359 |
| 2B/3B | Matt Duffy | $3,600 | .351 |
Brandon Belt boasts a .894 OPS against righties and 40.9 hard-hit percentage. Joe Panik has a higher wOBA than any second baseman other than Jason Kipnis, and Matt Duffy is hitting .302/.342/.466 with nine homers after going yard on Sunday.
OF Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners ($5,000) vs. Arizona
Robbie Ray almost received the second slot over Hendricks, but only 2.7 percent of his fly balls have cleared the fence. Safeco Field helps maintain that mirage, but facing Nelson Cruz won't.
Nobody in baseball has handled lefties better than Cruz, who leads all qualified hitters with a 1.191 OPS and .495 wOBA versus southpaws:
| 1 | Nelson Cruz | .495 |
| 2 | Paul Goldschmidt | .481 |
| 3 | Chris Young | .475 |
| 4 | Bryce Harper | .446 |
| 5 | Mike Trout | .446 |
| 6 | Josh Donaldson | .441 |
The Seattle Mariners slugger leads the star-studded ensemble, but let's segue into the one name that didn't belong with the others.
OF Chris Young, New York Yankees ($3,200) at Texas
It's redundant to tout Chris Young every time the New York Yankees play a lefty, but why wouldn't anyone play him whenever the Yankees play a lefty? He continues to dismantle southpaws with a .374/.430/.692 slash line, and he remains incredibly affordable.
He'll shift from one hitter's park to another as the Yankees visit Arlington. Opposing righties have a career .790 OPS against Matt Harrison, who hasn't looked sharp in his first two starts in over a year.
Alex Rodriguez also clobbers lefties, but his price torpedoed to $5,600 after his three-homer Saturday. Employing Young will help clear cap space for a bona fide stud or two such as Rodriguez, Cruz and Paul Goldschmidt.
SS Nick Ahmed, Arizona Diamondbacks ($2,400) at Seattle
Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock cost an arm ($6,000) and a leg ($5,400), respectively, against lefty Mike Montgomery. Nick Ahmed, on the other hand, is available for $2,400 despite hitting .343/.421/.463 against southpaws.
The Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop has cooled off colossally, hitting .197/.231/.262 in July. Yet the resulting price plummet and platoon splits support his cause against Montgomery, who has allowed 14 runs over his past three outings after a surprisingly strong debut.
Hitting Dud
2B Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners ($3,900) vs. Arizona
Robinson Cano is back, hitting .337 with six homers in July after entering the month with four long balls. Yet he still has a .501 OPS against lefties, so Monday isn't the night to ride his hot hand against Ray. Panik, Duffy, Kolten Wong and Rougned Odor are all more appealing second basemen with similar price tags.
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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