Ranking the Top 15 Players Still Available at the MLB Trade Deadline
With the likes of Scott Kazmir, Johnny Cueto and Troy Tulowitzki—as reported by Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal—gone from the block, the remaining days of Major League Baseball's trade season aren't as thick with talented players as they might have been.
But don't worry. There are still plenty of good trade chips up for grabs prior to Friday's non-waiver deadline. We know this, of course, because we're here to do the only Internet-appropriate thing imaginable: rank them!
The list ahead of you contains the names of 15 players, plus a few honorable mentions. As for how they're ranked, talent is obviously a vital component. But how their respective contract statuses and likely asking prices impact their trade value is also important. So rather than focusing strictly on talent, these rankings will reflect overall desirability.
We'll start with the honorable mentions and go from there. Step into the box whenever you're ready.
Honorable Mentions
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Here are some players (in no particular order) who were considered for the list ahead but didn't quite make the cut.
Adam Lind, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: Lind's .859 OPS since 2013 is impressive, but he's strictly a platoon hitter who doesn't offer much in the way of baserunning or defensive value.
Gerardo Parra, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: Parra is having an awesome year with a .318 average and .866 OPS, but he's also a platoon hitter whose defensive value appears to be slipping in his final year before free agency.
Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia Phillies: Papelbon is arguably underrated at this point, but he's still far from his prime and potentially an expensive acquisition if his $13 million option for 2016 vests.
Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Milwaukee Brewers: K-Rod looks like a less expensive Papelbon, but that could mean a higher price in terms of prospects in a trade.
Andrew Cashner, SP, San Diego Padres: Cashner is a 28-year-old with awesome stuff and another year of controllability, but his frequent injuries and inconsistent results aren't ideal.
Charlie Blackmon, OF, Colorado Rockies: Blackmon is having a strong season with an .824 OPS and good power and speed, and he also offers three more years of club control. But he's also a platoon hitter with inconsistent results away from Coors Field, so there's a buyer-beware factor with him.
Mike Leake, SP, Cincinnati Reds: Leake is better than he gets credit for, but he's strictly a mid-rotation guy who will be a free agent at year's end.
Marlon Byrd, LF, Cincinnati Reds: Byrd is a good source of right-handed power and has an affordable contract...but that's about all he has to offer.
15. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Texas Rangers
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The Texas Rangers had a good run in the middle of the first half, but they've been dragging their spurs ever since. With plenty of distance between them and the top of the AL West, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, reports that they're willing to part with veteran right-hander Yovani Gallardo.
That should spark some interest in the starter. Gallardo authored a solid 3.51 ERA with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2014, and he's doing even better than that to the tune of a 3.19 ERA this year. He's doing this mainly with contact management, as he owns a strong 50.1 ground-ball percentage and low hard-hit rate.
What's not so good, however, is how Gallardo is getting by with a diminished strikeout rate and a high walk rate. This means a smaller margin for error, and his last four starts make you wonder if bad luck is starting to catch up with him.
Another thing that's not so good: Gallardo is a rental. Free agency awaits him, so a team that deals for him will only have him for, at most, three months.
On the bright side, the Rangers can't demand too high a price for Gallardo given his issues and his pending free-agent status. He thus stands out as a reasonably affordable mid-rotation guy who can occasionally resemble a top-of-the-rotation arm.
14. Carlos Gonzalez, RF, Colorado Rockies
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The Rockies, as you might have noticed, are not a good baseball team. And as evidenced by Monday's trade of star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, they're definitely open for business.
The next to go could be right fielder Carlos Gonzalez. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post proposed CarGo as a possible trade chip during the All-Star break, and Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich didn't do much to dispel the notion in speaking to the Post's Nick Groke.
Rightfully so. Thanks to a torrid stretch that's seen him OPS 1.085 with 16 home runs over his last 44 games, Gonzalez now owns an .852 OPS and has hit 20 dingers. Those numbers are in line with his consistently excellent production between 2010 and 2013.
Another thing Gonzalez offers? That would be club control, as he's under contract through 2017.
One downside, though, is that CarGo isn't cheap with $37 million heading his way over the next two seasons. And on the field, he comes with weak numbers against lefties, inconsistent results away from Coors Field and seemingly declining speed. To boot, his injury history is a problem.
Despite all this, you have to think that the Rockies won't part with Gonzalez unless they get some real young talent in return. He thus comes with more bust potential than his numbers and controllability let on.
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13. Ben Zobrist, UTIL, Oakland A's
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The Oakland A's signaled their intent to punt their 2015 season when they traded Scott Kazmir last week. Not surprisingly, Ben Zobrist's name has been hogging space on MLB Trade Rumors ever since.
Zobrist is, after all, another free-agent-to-be. And as MLB's foremost utility man, he's a fit for just about any need on just about any team. That gives the A's the platform they need to stage a bidding war.
Oh, it also helps that Zobrist is boosting his value on the field. His .801 OPS is his best since 2012, and that figure is bolstered by a typical Zobrist walk rate and a power rebound that not even O.co Coliseum's huge dimensions have been able to contain.
It's not all good, mind you. At 34 years old and coming off a recent knee injury, it's no wonder Zobrist's stolen base game has gone dormant. And though his defensive versatility is going strong, the metrics say his defensive talent has taken a hit this year.
Odds are none of this will stand in the way of the A's getting an impressive haul for Zobrist, as well they should given his talent and the market for it. But that's also the bad news for prospective buyers: Zobrist is a player who can help, but there may be no way to get him without overpaying.
12. Jeff Samardzija, SP, Chicago White Sox
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The White Sox have been playing well enough recently to create a glimmer of hope for a postseason run. But indications are they're not fooling themselves—least of all where Jeff Samardzija is concerned, as he's another guy whose name is lighting up MLB Trade Rumors.
This tells us that the White Sox know how to strike when the iron is hot. After getting off to a slow start, Samardzija has settled down to post a 2.55 ERA over 60 innings in his last eight starts. Like that, he's looked more like the guy who ate 219.2 innings with a 2.99 ERA last year.
What should worry prospective buyers is that Samardzija hasn't boosted his strikeout rate during his hot stretch, as his strikeouts-per-nine rate has actually fallen from 7.1 to 6.9. But he has managed contact a lot better while walking under two batters per nine innings. These are habits that could indeed lead to success elsewhere, particularly knowing that just about any defense will be better than what he's had in Chicago.
The catch, of course, is that Samardzija is a free agent at the end of the year. And after the A's got two players for Scott Kazmir and the Reds got three players for Johnny Cueto, it wouldn't be surprising to see the White Sox take advantage of the last-minute pre-deadline frenzy and do even better.
In other words, it's entirely possible that a team will have to pay an ace price to acquire Samardzija. Given that he's not quite an ace, that's not ideal.
11. James Shields, SP, San Diego Padres
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It seems like just yesterday that the Padres signed James Shields to a four-year, $75 million contract. But now they're a bad team, and the word from Jon Heyman is that they don't want that contract anymore.
This is understandable. Shields' contract is big by Padres standards, and he hasn't lived up to it with a 3.77 ERA that's come mainly from home runs and hard contact in general. In the background of all this, not so coincidentally, is a notable drop in velocity. At 33, Shields finally seems to be declining.
The good news for buyers, however, is that trading for Shields may not mean dealing for the entirety of his contract. Per ESPN.com's Jayson Stark, the market may push the Padres to eat some of the $65 million Shields is owed through 2017. If so, trading for Shields wouldn't require too big a leap of faith.
And in the end, it could prove to be a leap worth taking. Shields hasn't been great, but his increased strikeout rate is a good feather in his cap. He could also benefit greatly from leaving behind a San Diego defense that, per Baseball Prospectus, ranks 21st in MLB in efficiency.
If the Padres are going to eat some of Shields' contract, a team will have to give up something (or somethings) of value to get him. But since that could mean getting three years of a solid veteran pitcher, any club that does so wouldn't be making the worst swap in the world.
10. Justin Upton, LF, San Diego Padres
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In addition to James Shields, another player the Padres are looking to move is Justin Upton. The difference with him, of course, is that he's a free-agent-to-be rather than the owner of a bad contract.
The 27-year-old left fielder is progressing toward free agency with yet another strong year, OPS'ing .759 with 16 home runs and 17 stolen bases. Those latter two figures mark the best combination of power and speed that he's featured since his Arizona Diamondbacks days, which is obviously a good thing.
But while Upton's having a solid year, it's not a great one.
His OPS is down quite a bit from where it was the last two seasons in Atlanta, in no small part because he's been in a bad slump since the beginning of June. This would be him following a frustrating pattern of inconsistency, as Upton's bat is hot and cold rather than consistent.
But sort of like with Ben Zobrist, it's likely that no amount of nit-picking is going to lower San Diego's asking price for Upton with the trade deadline drawing nearer. To get him, a team is likely going to have to overpay.
9. Yoenis Cespedes, LF, Detroit Tigers
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According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Tigers aren't quite ready to sell. But their 48-51 record and big deficit in the AL Central standings could force them to do so, a possibility that Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported.
If the Tigers do sell, said Nightengale, you can expect Yoenis Cespedes to be on the move.
Plenty of teams could use a middle-of-the-order bat, and the 29-year-old left fielder is looking like one of those with an .811 OPS and 16 homers. But he's also not a one-trick pony, as the defensive metrics are once again loving Cespedes' play in left field.
These talents mean Cespedes could be quite the difference-maker on a contender, but there are catches.
The main one is that he is a free-agent-to-be, so dealing for him would mean paying a lofty price for, at best, a three-month rental. Then there's the reality that, though he's been good on the whole this year, you still just don't known when Cespedes is going to go into a stretch of inconsistency. He's in the middle of one of those now, as it happens, as he has an OBP easily under .300 over the last month.
In all, Cespedes is essentially in the same boat as Justin Upton. Between the two of them, though, what gives Cespedes the advantage is that he's simply having a better season.
8. Carlos Gomez, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
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The Milwaukee Brewers are pretty far out of it in the NL Central at 21.5 games back, and they're also badly in need of impact talent down on the farm. Put two and two together, and Jon Heyman's recent report that the Brew Crew is willing to deal center fielder Carlos Gomez adds up.
To this end, the deadline couldn't be coming at a better time for the Brewers. Gomez has been hot with a .917 OPS in his last 18 games, and it's helped push his numbers more toward where they were in 2013 and 2014.
Beyond that, another part of Gomez's appeal is that he's no rental. He's under contract for 2016, and for a modest $9 million salary to boot.
However, the one complication is that, hot streak or no hot streak, Gomez just doesn't look like the same player he was in 2013 and 2014. His OPS has fallen from the mid-.800s to the mid-.700s, and both his power and speed have gone the same direction. And the more time that goes by, the more it looks like he peaked defensively back in 2013.
In light of all this, it's very possible that acquiring Gomez will require paying an impact price for a guy who's gone from being a true impact player to a merely very good player.
7. Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati Reds
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The Reds made it clear with the Johnny Cueto trade that the white flag has gone up. John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer warned that would happen, and that Cueto isn't the only player who could go.
Also on that list, among others, is Jay Bruce. And right now, the best way to look at him is as a cheaper, better version of Carlos Gonzalez.
Like CarGo, Bruce is also in the middle of a red-hot stretch with a 1.021 OPS and seven homers over his last 33 games. For the season, he boasts an .825 OPS and 16 home runs, numbers that line up very well with what he was doing between 2010 and 2013 before an injury-marred 2014.
Counting his 2017 club option, another thing Bruce has in common with Gonzalez is that he's controllable for two more seasons. And he's controllable at good rates, as these two extra years are only in line to pay him $25.5 million.
But that's not all Bruce has on Gonzalez. He also has a much stronger track record against left-handed pitching and more consistent results away from the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. He also has just one injury-marred season under his belt, compared to several for Gonzalez.
Assuming the Reds are aware of all this, they're not going to give up Bruce for a cheap haul. But given that he looks fixed after a broken 2014 and has two more years on his contract, he's arguably worth a big return in a trade.
6. Craig Kimbrel, RP, San Diego Padres
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James Shields and Justin Upton aren't the only big-name players the Padres are looking to move. According to the aforementioned Heyman report, fire-balling closer Craig Kimbrel is also on the block.
This also makes sense. If the Padres are going to rebuild, there's no point in hanging on to an elite closer—especially not one who's still owed at least $24 million over the next two years.
Working against the Padres, of course, is that Kimbrel isn't having a great season by his standards. After posting a 1.27 ERA and a 14.5 K/9 between 2012 and 2014, the 27-year-old right-hander only has a 2.75 ERA and a 12.6 K/9 this year. Something seems...well, off.
However, I wouldn't expect Kimbrel's weaker results to drag down his market all that much. His velocity is doing just fine, and it's helping him get swinging strikes and limit hard contact at rates better than his career averages. In light of all this, Kimbrel is pitching more like his usual self than his results let on.
As such, the bad news for prospective buyers is that Kimbrel likely can't be had cheap in a trade. But since dealing for him would mean getting a closer who can actually live up to the money he's receiving, giving market value for Kimbrel wouldn't be an overpay.
5. Tyson Ross, SP, San Diego Padres
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Of all the players the Padres are thinking of moving, 28-year-old right-hander Tyson Ross is attracting the most interest, per Ken Rosenthal.
No, meet duh.
There appears to be great demand for controllable pitchers on this year's trade market, and Ross has a good bit of that with two more years to go until free agency. And given that these are arbitration years that will be adding to a modest $5.25 million salary, they figure to be cheap seasons.
That opens up the possibility of Ross being an outstanding bargain. With a 3.09 ERA since 2013, he's quietly been one of the league's better pitchers. This is no accident, as his escalating strikeout and ground-ball rates allow him to get plenty of easy outs.
The one flaw in Ross' game, however, is his tendency to pile up walks. He has a 4.2 BB/9 this season, and that's reflective of how wild he can be with his fastball. It's also the one thing that's keeping him from being a No. 1-type pitcher. He's more of a No. 2.
Therein lies the complication for prospective buyers, as the price to acquire Ross is likely to be more akin to the price for a No. 1 starter than a No. 2. But in light of his talent and controllability, that shouldn't necessarily scare teams away.
4. Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati Reds
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Apart from Jay Bruce, still another player who could depart Cincinnati in the coming days is flame-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman. And of all the pieces the Reds have, he could fetch the highest price.
Chapman once again finds himself in the middle of a dominant season, as he's getting by with a 1.73 ERA that features a 16.0 K/9. In a related story, his average fastball velocity is hanging strong up around 100 miles per hour.
In addition to his insanely powerful left arm, Chapman also has cheap controllability working for him. He's only making $5 million this year and is under contract for just over $8 million next season. If he were a free agent, he'd probably be making twice that much per year.
Naturally, the downside of Chapman's talent-controllability equation is that it means the Reds can demand a huge price for him. Or, to use the word of one AL executive, as relayed by ESPN.com's Jayson Stark, an "exorbitant" asking price.
Nonetheless, this isn't a deal-breaker as far as we're concerned. Chapman is arguably the most overpowering reliever in the game, and he will be relatively cheap. That's a guy worth a big price in a trade.
3. Yasiel Puig, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Just a few days ago, Jon Heyman reported that the Dodgers had told Yasiel Puig he wouldn't be traded. But on Monday night, we heard from Bob Nightengale that the Dodgers are willing to listen and are open to moving their young right fielder.
Those two reports obviously don't fit together, but the latter makes a good bit of sense. The Dodgers have needs to fill, and Puig has played his way into expendability.
He's done that by not looking like the same player he was in 2013 and 2014, as he has just a .750 OPS with six homers in 53 games. That's not a great look, and it appears worse in light of how it's just the latest stop in a decline from Puig's offensive peak in his 2013 rookie season.
But on the bright side, he is still only 24 and under control for three more seasons after 2015 at just under $25 million total. And with his BB/K rate still above average and his frustrating ground-ball habit finally improving, it's clear his offense isn't beyond saving.
Mind you, trading for Puig would still qualify as taking on a project—not just on the field, either. Puig's issues with his demeanor are an open secret. But considering how he could once again blossom into a superstar over the life of his remaining contract, he's worth a big price in a blockbuster trade.
2. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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Could Cole Hamels' first career no-hitter also turn out to be his last start for the Philadelphia Phillies? It's looking like that's how things will pan out, as Ken Rosenthal has reported that momentum is building toward a Hamels blockbuster.
By reputation, that means that someone is about to acquire an ace. The veteran left-hander is fresh off a 2.46 ERA in 2014, and overall he's been one of the National League's best pitchers since 2007.
True, you can note that the 3.64 ERA Hamels has this year isn't very ace-like. But he's also working on his best full-season strikeout rate, and he's collecting plenty of ground balls and soft contact. If you believe Eno Sarris of FanGraphs, Hamels is a more complete pitcher now than he's ever been.
Rather than his talent, the downside with Hamels' trade-value concerns his age (31) and contract. He's owed a minimum of $76.5 million over the next three years, and indications are the Phillies would like to move all of that plus acquire a handful of prospects for him.
A week or two ago, it seemed like the Phillies would have had to back down. But with Hamels coming into the trade deadline hot and with the bidding likely to get more and more serious as the hours count down, well, maybe not. Hamels is a good pitcher, but somebody's going to pay dearly to get him.
1. David Price, SP, Detroit Tigers
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If the Tigers decide to go into sell mode, their big trade chip won't be Yoenis Cespedes. As you can tell by his picture and his name being in the header, it'll be David Price.
Price had some issues with his health and velocity that rendered him vulnerable in 2013 and 2014, but he's having no such issues in 2015. He owns a 2.31 ERA over 140 innings in 20 starts, complete with 134 strikeouts and just 27 walks.
Helping with all of this is a velocity spike, as the veteran lefty has his average fastball up around 94 miles per hour. That and increased use of his changeup have helped make him more overpowering, as the 11.5 swinging-strike rate this year is his best yet since he became a full-time starter in 2009.
The downside, of course, is that Price is only a rental with free agency due up at the end of the year. And not unlike the White Sox with Jeff Samardzija, the Tigers should be able to benefit from the Scott Kazmir and Johnny Cueto trades and any last-minute deadline commotion by selling Price for a huge, um, price.
The difference between Samardzija and Price, though, is an obvious one. Price is a legit ace, so there's more than a fair chance that any team that gives up the farm to get him won't regret it later.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs.com and Baseball Prospectus unless otherwise noted.
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