Final Pre-Trade Deadline Stock Up, Stock Down on MLB's Top Targets
The MLB trade deadline always feels like a drawn-out process. But fear not, baseball fans—there's light at the end of the tunnel. With the market ready to heat up over the upcoming week, let's take a look at the top trade targets available and their value prior to Friday's non-waiver deadline.
The following names on this list can greatly impact playoff races across MLB in the second half. Many are perennial All-Stars that are wasting away on losing teams or are in the midst of the final year of their contracts.
Poor performances and/or minor injuries carry much more weight in the final few days of July than they do in mid-May. Players like Adam Lind and Justin Upton have discovered that fact over the last week.
On the flip side, trade chips can increase their value with a well-timed hot streak. Gerardo Parra, Mike Leake and Carlos Gonzalez have all saved their best performances until right before the deadline.
We'll take a look at the aforementioned names as well as a host of others. How will Cole Hamels' no-hitter affect his value? Have Carlos Gomez, Jeff Samardzija and Craig Kimbrel helped or hurt their trade causes in their recent outings?
Make sure to leave your thoughts in the comments section below. Which of these players do you want your favorite team to pursue? How much value can you place on a two-week hot streak or slump?
Let's get started with our final stock evaluation before July 31.
Aroldis Chapman
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How can Cincinnati Reds closer Aroldis Chapman's stock rise any higher? The left-hander is as dominant a reliever as we've ever seen in MLB.
Chapman has an absurd career strikeout percentage of 43 percent. Forty-three percent! Last season that total exceeded 50 percent. We're talking about jaw-dropping numbers here, the likes of which we may never see again.
The 27-year-old has a 1.08 ERA in 8.1 July innings, holding opponents to a .200 average. Over the last week, Chapman tallied two saves, struck out nine men and allowed just one earned run.
The Reds don't have to move Chapman, but there's no sense trotting out a fantastic reliever on a hopeless team. He'll be under contract through the 2016 season, which might convince a contender to overpay in order to acquire him.
They Said It
"But Chapman is a closer, and an elite closer is a luxury for a team that's not going to contend this year or next. Chapman's trade value is unlikely to get higher than it is now and he's a free agent at the end of next season," said C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
Verdict: Stock Up
Carlos Gonzalez
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2015 Stats: .270/.326/.497, 18 HR, 47 RBI, 47 R, 109 wRC+
Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez began 2015 with an extended slump at the plate, but his recent work is reminiscent of the player that was in the MVP conversation in 2010.
Gonzalez is hitting .377 in July with a whopping 1.223 OPS. The 29-year-old has also launched eight of his 18 homers this month. Over the past week, Gonzalez has continued his torrid pace with 10 hits, five homers and 11 RBI.
Unlike many of the names on this list, Gonzalez isn't a free agent after the season. He's still owed $37 million after this season, through 2017, which obviously complicates a potential deal.
But if a team is in the market for an impact hitter who is under club control for more than one season, Gonzalez's red-hot bat is surely grabbing their attention.
They Said It
“I made a commitment when I signed that contract here, because I wanted to make this city proud,” Gonzalez told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. “I want to win with the Rockies, but I would understand if they trade me. That’s not up to me. They would trade me because they are trying to change things around. I understand that.”
Verdict: Stock Up
Carlos Gomez
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Milwaukee's Carlos Gomez is one of the most talented outfielders in MLB, but he hasn't exactly lit the world on fire in 2015.
After two phenomenal seasons, Gomez has struggled to recreate that form in 2015 due to various injuries. Gomez is hitting a modest .266 and hasn't shown the base-stealing acumen he has in years past.
Recently, Gomez has maintained that level of mediocrity. He's hitting just .250 in July with seven extra-base hits and 16 RBI. Gomez notched just five hits in seven games this past week.
Still, we're talking about a guy with over 70 homers and 100 steals since the beginning of 2012. Gomez is also a bargain, as he's set to make only $9 million next season.
Although he hasn't necessarily enhanced his value over the past few weeks, Gomez's track record and team-friendly contract make him as valuable as any position player on the market.
They Said It
"Gomez's possible move is born of pragmatism, as the person [familiar with the situation] mentioned how there's no way the Brewers would be able to afford to keep Gomez long-term considering Jacoby Ellsbury's $153-million deal (Gomez is a free agent after 2016)," said Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
Verdict: Stock Even
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Cole Hamels
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2015 Stats: 6-7, 3.64 ERA (3.20 FIP), 128.2 IP, 9.58 K/9, 2.73 BB/9
So much for all those concerns regarding Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels.
After horrific back-to-back starts, Hamels improved his already high value in historic fashion with his no-hitter against the Chicago Cubs over the weekend. Hamels struck out 13 and allowed only two walks in the performance.
But did Hamels really need such a dominant outing to justify his worth? The 31-year-old boasts a career 3.30 ERA and has won over 100 games. He's pitched well in high-profile spots and has made 30 or more starts in seven straight seasons. Hamels may not be elite, but he's sure close.
Hamels has plenty of cash coming his way over the next few seasons, which both helps and hurts his value. A contending team knows it'll have to take on extensive salary, but it'll be getting a bona fide ace for at least the next three years.
There can be debate on what Hamels is worth in a potential blockbuster deal. But as his recent no-hitter indicates, there's not a bigger difference-maker on the market.
They Said It
"Whether Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro can trade someone as popular as Hamels coming off a no-hitter remains to be seen," wrote Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. "But Hamels' already high trade value definitely rose a notch."
Verdict: Stock Up
Craig Kimbrel
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2015 Stats: 1-2, 29 SV, 2.75 ERA (2.48 FIP), 39.1 IP, 12.58 K/9, 3.43 BB/9
Reliever Craig Kimbrel's 2015 numbers are hardly embarrassing, but the Padres closer has set the bar extremely high over the course of his career.
Despite a subpar season by his standards, Kimbrel is still 29-for-30 in save opportunities this year. The flame-throwing right-hander has also posted a strikeout percentage of 34.8 percent and has significantly increased his ground-ball rate.
Not bad for a down year.
Kimbrel has also dominated over the past month, posting a 0.87 ERA and allowing just five hits in 10.1 innings. The 27-year-old nailed down four saves this week and didn't allowed a hit or run in the process.
Kimbrel is potentially owed $37 million over the next three seasons, but he's still one of the top closers in all of baseball. A return to form in July could persuade a bullpen-needy team to take on his contract for a playoff push.
They Said It
"This is why closer Craig Kimbrel continues to be a candidate to be traded in the next six days—or maybe in August—because he does have some value as one of the game's best closers, and the Padres have indicated a willingness to deal him," wrote ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
Verdict: Stock Up
Mike Leake
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2015 Stats: 8-5, 3.78 ERA (3.94 FIP), 128.2 IP, 6.09 K/9, 2.31 BB/9
The market for Cincinnati Reds hurler Mike Leake has grown tremendously over the last few weeks.
Although he's not as flashy as some of the other available starters, Leake has proved to be a reliable arm at the back end of the rotation. So far in 2015, the right-hander has posted a sub-4.00 ERA and fewer than three walks per nine innings.
Leake has significantly enhanced his value over his last four starts. The 27-year-old is 3-1 in those outings and has allowed only five earned runs in 28 innings. That includes a masterful start against the Chicago Cubs on July 22 where he twirled eight innings of four-hit, one-run ball.
While Leake isn't a dominating strikeout artist, his ability to keep the ball on the ground would make him a quality addition for a team with a solid defense.
They Said It
"He is pitching very well at present, though, sporting a 1.29 ERA in July with a 0.89 WHIP and 22 strikeouts against only six walks in four starts (28 innings). And while he doesn't strike guys out consistently, he does keep the ball on the ground regularly, as he entered Wednesday 16th in the majors in ground ball rate among qualifying starters.
"
Verdict: Stock Up
Adam Lind
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2015 Stats: .285/.365/.500, 16 HR, 58 RBI, 41 R, 135 wRC+
Milwaukee Brewers slugger Adam Lind has long been one of the game's most underrated hitters, and he's proved that once again in 2015.
Lind has been quite the offensive force in the middle of the Brewers lineup. The 32-year-old has driven in nearly 60 runs this season and is slugging .500. He has continued to crush right-handed pitching, posting a .935 OPS against them in 2015.
While his production warrants a solid return, Lind's recent back issues are worrisome considering his injury history. Lind has played in 140 or more games just once since 2011, in 2013.
With an $8 million team option for 2016 (and a $500,000 buyout), Lind figured to garner a rental-type package anyway. But a poorly timed tweak of his back could drop that price even further.
They Said It
"It's been nice. They've given me the opportunity here to play every day," Lind told Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "Ultimately I want to play well, but I think if I can stay off the DL that's a bigger goal and almost a harder challenge than hitting .270 with 15 home runs or something."
Verdict: Stock Down
Jonathan Papelbon
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2015 Stats: 2-1, 17 SV, 1.59 ERA (2.94 FIP), 39.2 IP, 9.08 K/9, 1.82 BB/9
In terms of on-field production, it's difficult for Philadelphia Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon's trade value to get any higher.
At 34, Papelbon remains one of the top relievers in baseball. The 2015 National League All-Star is perfect in save opportunities this season and has a minuscule ERA to boot. Papelbon has struck out more hitters per nine this year than he has since 2012, and he's lowered his walk rate well below his career average.
Papelbon has done nothing to diminish his value over the last week, allowing zero earned runs and just two hits in four innings of work.
But, of course, Papelbon's value is directly tied to his unfriendly contract. The right-hander is owed $13 million next season, and general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and the Phillies haven't been able to construct a deal to their liking.
They Said It
"One example of concreteness: the report from well-respected ESPN scribe Jayson Stark that suggested the Phillies went into a holding pattern while they were in late-stage talks about Papelbon, opting to wait until they introduced new president Andy MacPhail, who was only three years removed from his previous organization and thus clearly incapable of being hired any earlier than the middle of the most pivotal two-month stretch of the baseball calendar. If that really ends up preventing the Phillies from completing a better deal than whatever one they can drum up between now and July 31, then it is just another example of the kind of organizational malpractice that got them here to begin with.
"
—David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News
Verdict: Stock Even
Gerardo Parra
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2015 Stats: .317/.356/.505, 9 HR, 31 RBI, 48 R, 7 SB, 133 wRC+
Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Gerardo Parra has always been a fantastic defender, but an offensive explosion has made him one of the top position players available.
Parra is hitting .317 and slugging over .500 on the year. He's done a little bit of everything offensively, hitting for average and power while scoring runs and stealing bases as a table-setter.
The 28-year-old has been on fire over the last week, extending his hitting streak to nine games.
A free-agent-to-be, Parra won't cost much in the grand scheme of things. Teams in need of outfield help will be lining up, hoping to take advantage of Parra's career year.
They Said It
"Every season has stretches where guys are really good," Brewers manager Craig Counsell told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "He's having a good year. He's a good player and he's having a good year. That doesn't need any explanation for me."
Verdict: Stock Up
Jeff Samardzija
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Jeff Samardzija and the Chicago White Sox have endured a disappointing 2015 season, but both parties can make the best of a bad situation by finding the right deal over the coming days.
Samardzija's 3.91 ERA in over 140 innings is subpar for a pitcher with such talent. A 3.53 FIP suggests he may be pitching better than his ERA indicates, but a significant dip in strikeouts and ground balls is hard to ignore.
Despite those red flags, Samardzija is doing his best to enhance his trade value before the deadline. The right-hander has a 1.71 ERA in four July starts, holding opponents to a .167 average. That includes eight innings of one-run, four-hit ball against the Cleveland Indians in his most recent start.
Samardzija's rental status makes it tough to gauge his true value, but his domination over the last month will definitely be taken into account.
They Said It
"All I can do is increase my value as much as possible and make both sides come out on top," Samardzija told Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune. "The better I play, the better the White Sox will get in return if they do trade me, and then it's better for me to go to a better situation. But again that's out of my hands. … All I can do is perform and increase my value to make it great no matter what the situation is."
Verdict: Stock Up
Justin Upton
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2015 Stats: .251/.330/.429, 16 HR, 50 RBI, 48 R, 17 SB, 115 wRC+
It's hard to say if Justin Upton's recent oblique issue has affected his offensive production, but it sure seems that way.
The San Diego Padres outfielder has battled that tweaked oblique for most of July, hitting just .154 in 15 games. The 27-year-old has just two extra-base hits in that time frame and an alarming amount of soft contact (29.7 percent) in general.
Although Upton's contract expires after the season, it was unlikely that he would find himself on the trade block again once the Padres acquired him from the Atlanta Braves this winter.
But with the Padres falling farther and farther back in the National League playoff picture (47-52, third in the NL West), Upton has become a likely, logical trade candidate.
Unfortunately for San Diego, Upton's unreliable oblique is a worrying development.
They Said It
"Upton’s oblique has been a lingering problem for much of July," said Drew Silva of Hardball Talk. "It comes with unfortunate timing for the Friars, who appear likely to shop the impending free agent ahead of the July 31 trade deadline."
Verdict: Stock Down
Ben Zobrist
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2015 Stats: .268/.354/.447, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 39 R, 126 wRC+
Oakland utility man Ben Zobrist's defensive versatility gives him tremendous value over other position players, but his offensive ability has always been underrated.
This season is a microcosm of Zobrist's offensive talents. The 34-year-old would rank third in MLB in walk-to-strikeout ratio if he had enough at-bats to qualify. That attribute bodes well for a table-setting role, but Zobrist has proved to be a capable run producer as well. He's driven in over 30 runs and smacked six homers in 67 games this season.
Zobrist missed significant time earlier in the campaign with a knee injury, but he has started to turn it on in recent weeks. He has an .810 OPS and a 127 wRC+ in July and nine hits in his last seven games.
They Said It
"It's going to be eight months before it feels the same way it did before," Zobrist told David Lennon of Newsday while speaking about his knee. "It stiffens up easier—a little more than it ever did before. They said that will take a while before it goes away. But as far as range of motion, speed—all the things you need to play good defense and run the bases—it's getting very close to being exactly where I want it to be."
Verdict: Stock Up
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of July 27.
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