.jpeg?w=1280 "Bears QB Caleb Williams (left) and Packers QB Jordan Love (right)")
2025 NFL Week 14 Expert Picks
Entering the final stretch of the 2025 season, we can see a clear gap between contenders and pretenders, though underdogs are still covering at a fairly high rate.
In fact, the New York Jets are one of the best teams against the spread. Will the better teams begin to dominate weaker opponents as the playoffs approach?
B/R analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Moe Moton and Brent Sobleski and editors Ian Hanford and Wes O'Donnell are ready to ride with several favorites. Despite some tricky hooks and travel for the better teams, they mostly sided with nine favorites in 14 games.
For the first time since Week 6, there are no double-digit spreads. Our experts went head-to-head on all but one contest for which they all agreed to take a road favorite.
Check out the standings below. A few of our selectors cracked triple digits in the win column last week. Davenport went 12-4 to finish November.
Here are our picks for the Week 14 slate.
ATS Standings
1. Moton: 104-89-1
2. Knox: 102-91-1
3. Gagnon 101-92-1
4. Hanford: 99-94-1
T-5. O'Donnell: 96-97-1
T-5. Sobleski: 96-97-1
7. Davenport: 89-104-1
Lone Wolf Picks: 19-17-1
Lines are from DraftKings as of Tuesday, Dec. 2, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) at Detroit Lions (7-5)
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Knox: Lions (-3)
My brain tells me the Lions are on the verge of losing their third game in four weeks. Their defense hasn't been good, Jared Goff has seemed off, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is probably out. Dallas, meanwhile, has been on a roll since the trade deadline and its bye week. My gut, though, tells me Dan Campbell gets Detroit fired up enough for the sort of kneecap-biting performance the Lions need to save their season.
Moton: Cowboys ( 3)
The Cowboys are playing their best football, with a plus-23 point differential coming out of a Week 10 bye. On a short week, they'll face a banged-up Lions squad that may not have star wide receiver St. Brown, which is a big blow to the offense considering Pro Bowl tight end Sam LaPorta is on injured reserve. Center Frank Ragnow's attempt to come out of retirement fell apart because he failed a physical.
On defense, ball-hawking All-Pro safety Kerby Joseph will miss another game, and cornerback Terrion Arnold is out for the season. The Lions won't have enough offensive firepower or defensive resistance to keep pace with the league's second-ranked scoring offense that's racking up the most yards per contest.
Predictions
Cowboys: Davenport, Hanford, Moton, Sobleski
Lions: Gagnon, Knox, O'Donnell
Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) at Buffalo Bills (8-4)
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Davenport: Bills (-6)
On the one hand, it's not hard to see why this spread is where it is—the Bengals are a 4-8 team with the only defense in the NFL allowing more than 400 yards and 30 points a game. On the other hand, if the Joe Burrow-led Bengals, who went to Baltimore last week and thumped the Ravens, show up in Week 14, things could get dicey quickly. But it's Josh Allen against a bad defense at home in a game the Bills need. Lay the points.
Gagnon: Bengals ( 6)
The Bengals are well-rested, healthier than they've been in a while (especially if Tee Higgins can return) and potentially inspired to make a run against a Buffalo team that is just 4-4 straight-up in its last four games. Watch for a hot Chase Brown to make a big difference against a vulnerable Bills run defense in a very close contest.
Predictions
Bengals: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, Sobleski
Bills: Davenport, Knox, O'Donnell
New Orleans Saints (2-10) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
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Hanford: Saints ( 8.5)
This is less about my faith in the Saints and more about my thought that 8.5 points is a lot to ask for from a Buccaneers team that's difficult to trust themselves. Tampa Bay handled New Orleans easily the first time around, but doing that twice in one season to a division rival isn't always easy.
Tyler Shough's rookie year has been filled with ups and downs, but the Buccaneers' defense has been vulnerable this season. I think the Saints clear the 17-point mark for the first time in their last six games this week and keep this one within a touchdown.
Knox: Buccaneers (-8.5)
Absolutely nothing about the Buccaneers defense makes me feel good about backing them with a line this large. However, Tampa is getting a bit healthier offensively, and Todd Bowles' blitz-heavy defense could be a problem for Shough. I doubt we'll see the 20-point blowout we saw in the first meeting, but I do think Tampa will pull away late.
Predictions
Saints: Davenport, Hanford, Moton, Sobleski
Buccaneers: Gagnon, Knox, O'Donnell
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Seattle Seahawks (9-3) at Atlanta Falcons (4-8)
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Gagnon: Seahawks (-7.5)
In their last two home games, the Falcons have given up 64 points in losses to Carolina and Miami. Now, they have to deal with the best road team in the NFL. In their last 12 away games, the Seahawks are 11-1 straight-up and 9-3 against the spread. They should be extremely motivated in this spot, while Atlanta may be deflated following a brutal loss to the lowly Jets.
Moton: Seahawks (-7.5)
Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins struggled against the Seahawks' Mike Macdonald-led defense last season, throwing for 232 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, taking three sacks and losing a fumble. Now, he'll face a stingier unit, perhaps without lead wide receiver Drake London, who's nursing a knee injury.
The Seahawks have covered the spread in two of their three 1 p.m. ET kickoff games so far. They allowed the Tennessee Titans to creep through the back door to cover late two weeks ago, but their third-ranked scoring defense is coming off a shutout performance. Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet help the Seahawks milk the clock against Atlanta's 25th-ranked run defense to preserve a double-digit lead.
Predictions
Seahawks: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
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Hanford: Ravens (-5.5)
History says these games are almost always decided by a field goal or less, even when it doesn't make sense, but the Steelers just feel broken. You could argue Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' struggles on offense are just as noteworthy, but only one of these head coaches heard chants in their home stadium last week calling for their job.
Baltimore came out flat against a Bengals team welcoming its QB back into the fold, but there's no such inspiration coming from Pittsburgh. Derrick Henry paces the offense against a defense that can't slow anything down, and the Ravens win by a touchdown.
Moton: Steelers ( 5.5)
This feels like a rallying point for the Steelers after their fans chanted, "Fire Tomlin" last week. Remember, this is a veteran-led locker room with several key players who have been tied to Tomlin over the years. We often get caught up in numbers, but players and coaches also respond to outside noise and motivation. Along with a head coach under fire, Pittsburgh is playing to reclaim the top spot in the AFC North.
Keep in mind that the Ravens are struggling on both sides of the ball. They just lost 32-14 to the Cincinnati Bengals at home. Also, in 11 games against Pittsburgh, Lamar Jackson has completed just 58 percent of his passes, and he's thrown more interceptions (nine) than touchdowns (eight). This game is a field-goal toss-up. Don't be surprised if new Steelers receiver Adam Thielen makes an immediate impact in a tight division battle that could go either way.
Predictions
Steelers: Davenport, Moton, Sobleski
Ravens: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell
Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
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Gagnon: Colts (-1.5)
This game is a toss-up, but it really comes down to me trusting Indy a lot more than Jacksonville. It's also an anti-trend pick, as the talented and well-coached Colts are unlikely to drop a third straight game out of nowhere, while the erratic and unpredictable Jags are just as unlikely to win a fourth straight game. Sometimes, you have to keep it that simple. The Jags also thrive on defensive takeaways, but the Colts are quite disciplined on offense.
Sobleski: Jaguars ( 1.5)
The Colts do not win in Jacksonville. It's a simple fact of life. The last time the franchise traveled to Duval and won a contest, Andrew Luck was in his third season. It's been over 11 years since Indianapolis went to its rival's stadium and flew home with a victory. With the AFC South lead on the line and the Colts desperate to finally break this streak, it's still easy to see Jacksonville holding serve and capturing another home win.
Predictions
Colts: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell
Jaguars: Davenport, Moton, Sobleski
Miami Dolphins (5-7) at New York Jets (3-9)
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Davenport: Jets ( 2.5)
Before getting into the matchup, spare a thought for fans without Sunday Ticket who are stuck with Dolphins-Jets on the main broadcast. It's a rough watch between two struggling teams, so backing the home underdog Jets is more about the number than the aesthetics. This is a low-stakes game between two disappointing teams, so take the home underdog, even if it's the Jets.
Knox: Dolphins (-2.5)
The Dolphins have seemed a bit more aggressive defensively in recent weeks. I think that will make a difference against a Jets offense that looks more efficient with Tyrod Taylor than it did with Justin Fields. More importantly, I don't think Miami will gift-wrap the Jets a win the way the Falcons did a week ago. The Dolphins won the first meeting by six, and I think we'll see a similar margin, even in New York.
Predictions
Dolphins: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Jets: Davenport
Tennessee Titans (1-11) at Cleveland Browns (3-9)
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Hanford: Browns (-4.5)
Battle of the rookie QBs here, but this one is really only about one thing for me. The Browns have 43 sacks as a team. Myles Garrett has 19 sacks as an individual. The Titans have allowed a league-leading 48 sacks this season. That doesn't change this week. Cam Ward has shown encouraging signs this season, but he's going to make mistakes as he's under constant duress in this one. Browns cover in a low-scoring, ugly win.
Sobleski: Browns (-4.5)
Ward is asked to do too much. This year's No. 1 overall pick doesn't have any serious weapons around him. He's also been sacked a league-high 48 times. Expect Garrett and the NFL's second-ranked defense to make Ward's life miserable. Conversely, fellow rookie Shedeur Sanders may not have to do too much since Cleveland's offense, through Quinshon Judkins, can exploit the Titans' bottom 11 run defense.
Predictions
Browns: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Washington Commanders (3-9) at Minnesota Vikings (4-8)
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Gagnon: Vikings (-1.5)
The Commanders could have trouble battling back from a second consecutive crushing overtime loss to all but end their season. The Vikings are a mess too, but they're back at home where they have put up fights against Philadelphia, Baltimore and Chicago in their last three outings. Of course, keep an eye on the statuses of both teams' quarterbacks here.
O'Donnell: Commanders ( 1.5)
I do not care that the Vikings defense can perform at an elite level at times. Laying points, even at home, with either J.J. McCarthy or Max Brosmer under center, simply ain't going to happen. The Commanders may even get Jayden Daniels back on the field in this meaningless game. Taking the points regardless because Washington will win outright.
Predictions
Commanders: Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Vikings: Davenport, Gagnon
Denver Broncos (10-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
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Moton: Raiders ( 7.5)
The Denver Broncos are one of the league's best teams in the win-loss standings, but they're below .500 against the spread with a 5-6-1 record. Moreover, they haven't beaten an opponent by more than four points on the road this season.
They're coming off an exhausting one-point overtime victory over the Washington Commanders on the road, which could lead to another slow start for a team that's 20th in first-half scoring.
It's difficult to side with a Raiders squad that has lost six consecutive games, the last three by 14 or more points, but this club only lost by three in Denver just a month ago. Last week, Greg Olson featured All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty in his first game as the team's offensive play-caller, and Geno Smith completed 78 percent of his passes.
At home, the Silver and Black will play a competitive game for the first time since their 10-7 loss to the Broncos in Week 10.
O'Donnell: Broncos (-7.5)
Oddsmakers have been super-fond of hooks lately—and they've been a real pain. Denver has proved time and again it can win close games, and only three of its wins this season have been by more than 7.5 points; all of which were at home. Plus, the Broncos beat the Raiders in one of the ugliest games this season, 10-7, only a few weeks ago. Las Vegas hasn't covered a spread since that game in Denver. I'm not taking the bait.
Predictions
Broncos: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Raiders: Gagnon, Moton
Chicago Bears (9-3) at Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)
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Davenport: Packers (-6.5)
The Packers laying almost a touchdown against the NFC's No. 1 seed is a tad unnerving, even at Lambeau Field in December.
This isn't like the Packers-Bears matchups of recent years, either. After what happened last week in Philadelphia, Chicago has earned contender status.
As well as Bears head coach Ben Johnson has done in Year 1, though, the Packers are still a more well-rounded and battle-tested team. In their last 20 games at Lambeau as at least a six-point favorite, they are 16-4 straight up and 12-8 ATS.
Sobleski: Bears ( 6.5)
Apparently, there's little faith in the NFC's best team among B/R's pickers, even when the Packers are laying nearly a full touchdown. It shouldn't be too much of a stretch to pick the Bears outright in this instance considering how dominant they've been at the point of attack in recent weeks. Green Bay's defense is excellent, and no one can deny this fact.
However, the Bears own the league's second-best rushing attack and they're coming off a game where they simply manhandled the Philadelphia Eagles' talented defensive front. As long as Bears quarterback Caleb Williams plays a clean game, this contest should be viewed as Chicago's to lose.
Predictions
Bears: Sobleski
Packers: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Los Angeles Rams (9-3) at Arizona Cardinals (3-9)
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Hanford: Rams (-7.5)
I'm wary of the hook here, but I like the Rams to come out angry after a surprising loss to the Panthers last week.
Jacoby Brissett has racked up production in garbage time since taking over for Kyler Murray under center, so a backdoor cover is in the realm of possibility in this one, but moving the ball through the air could be tough as Trey McBride looks to crack a Rams defense that has held TEs to under 600 yards total on the season.
The NFL is as wide open as ever, but I still believe L.A. is the best team in the league. It shows it this week as Matthew Stafford bounces back to MVP form in a 10-point win.
O'Donnell: Cardinals ( 7.5)
This is a prime spot for a Rams rebound after their misstep in Carolina last week. It's another hook from the oddsmakers that stays my hand. It wouldn't be surprising at all to see L.A. take this one by double digits or more, but Arizona has seven losses by four points or fewer this season. I'm going to hope the Cardinals can lose by one score here with a meaningless backdoor cover.
Predictions
Rams: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton,
Cardinals: Gagnon, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Houston Texans (7-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
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Knox: Texans ( 3.5)
It's really hard to bet against a desperate Chiefs team playing at home on a Sunday night. However, the Texans defense is too dominant right now to think Houston will lose to anyone by more than a field goal—not even Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead.
O'Donnell: Chiefs (-3.5)
I should be taking the Texans here, especially with a dreaded hook staring me in the face. Almost everyone else on the panel is with the NFL's No. 1 defense. I get it, and to keep believing the Chiefs are just going to wake up and be the Super Bowl-caliber squad we're accustomed to is foolish.
However, I'm willing to get burned at least one more time because I do not trust C.J. Stroud enough against a Chiefs defense that has to be at its best or risk the season truly slipping away.
Predictions
Texans: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Chiefs: Davenport, O'Donnell
Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
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Davenport: Eagles (-2.5)
Honestly? That the Eagles aren't favored by more doesn't make picking them easier, but they have looked like a flawed team for a month—and a deeply flawed one after back-to-back losses.
The Chargers have just as many wins, but they are also short both starting offensive tackles, have a banged-up backfield and a quarterback with a broken left hand. It may well be a squeaker (the Eagles have one double-digit win this season), but Philly isn't dropping three straight.
Sobleski: Chargers ( 2.5)
Justin Herbert's surgery earlier this week may be a concern, though he's considered day-to-day. Besides, the injury was to his non-throwing hand. It shouldn't be an issue when he's handing the ball to Kimani Vidal, who's coming off a career-high 126-yard performance.
First-round runner Omarion Hampton is also expected back for Monday's contest. As a result, Jim Harbaugh can get back to basics and bludgeon an Eagles defense that just got destroyed at the point of attack by the Chicago Bears last weekend.
Predictions
Eagles: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Chargers: Sobleski
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