Fresh NFL Division Winner Predictions Entering December

The final full month of the 2025 NFL season is here, and all but 10 NFL teams are still within somewhat reasonable reaching distance of the top spot in their division. 

Which eight teams will wind up on top?

Let's work it out.

AFC East

AP Photo/Charles Krupa

Drake Maye

The Leader: New England Patriots (11-2)

The Challenger(s): Buffalo Bills (8-4)

Who'll Win It: New England (13-4), with Buffalo finishing 12-5

I struggled with this one, because there's a good chance it comes down to Week 18. The thing is, the Patriots likely have the tiebreaker even if they lose to Buffalo in Week 15, because there's a good chance they still go 5-1 within the division while the Bills already have losses to New England and Miami. 

New England's schedule has been—and will continue to be—a joke. Even if the Pats drop games in Buffalo and Baltimore after their Week 14 bye (far from guaranteed the way the Ravens are playing) that's followed by the Jets and Dolphins to close out the regular season.

Broadly, though, the Bills have no margin for error, and that's far from ideal considering how many errors the team has made this season.

AFC North

AP Photo/Terrance Williams

Lamar Jackson

The Leader: Baltimore Ravens (6-6)

The Challenger(s): Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6), Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)

Who'll Win It: Cincinnati (8-9), with Baltimore finishing 8-9 and Pittsburgh finishing 7-10

Something is extremely off with the Ravens, who had major flaws even before Lamar Jackson's injury derailed their season. If they can't beat the shorthanded and short-rested Bengals at home in prime time, I'm not giving them road wins in Cincinnati, Green Bay or even Pittsburgh between now and Week 18. 

Throw in that they also still have to play the first-place Patriots, and I just can't get behind Baltimore. 

Ditto for a Steelers team that also lost to Cincy earlier this season and is just 2-5 since Week 7. This team is also falling apart, just as the Bengals are finding a groove. 

This feels like a toss-up between the Bengals and Ravens, but Cincinnati has the edge in terms of momentum, strength of schedule and the tiebreaker right now.

AFC South

AP Photo/Stew Milne

Trevor Lawrence

The Leader: Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)

The Challenger(s): Indianapolis Colts (8-4), Houston Texans (7-5)

Who'll Win It: Jacksonville (11-6), with Houston and Indianapolis both finishing 10-7

This could easily result in a three-win tie at 10-7 or 11-6, but the Colts are likely the first to lose out in that scenario because that Week 13 loss to Houston has them behind the eight ball at 0-1 in common games with two visits to Houston and Jacksonville to come.

The Colts also lost a lot of momentum with just one win in November, while the Jags and Texans are picking up major steam. 

Houston and Jacksonville have already split their season series, but the Texans are 4-1 in the division with no divisional road games remaining, while the Jaguars are 2-1 but still have to face Indy twice. 

Both teams have two more tough road games (Kansas City and the Chargers for Houston, Denver and Indy for Jacksonville) and three very winnable home games. That extra win is the difference for the Jags, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Jacksonville were to stumble with no margin for error. This is a low-confidence prediction. 

AFC West

AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough

Bo Nix

The Leader: Denver Broncos (10-2)

The Challenger(s): Los Angeles Chargers (8-4), Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)

Who'll Win It: Denver (13-4), with Kansas City finishing 10-7 and Los Angeles finishing 9-8

Even if you don't fully believe in the Broncos, this race is over. Denver is still strong enough to win two or three more games (it has just two more road games), and the gap to Kansas City is too large for the Chiefs to really make it interesting. 

What about the Chargers? They're lucky to be in the picture thanks to one of the weakest schedules in football, but that's about to change. In fact, based on the ESPN Power Index, the roughed-up Bolts have the most difficult remaining schedule in the league. 

I doubt they win more than another game or two. 

NFC East

AP Photo/Chris Szagola

Jalen Hurts

The Leader: Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)

The Challenger(s): Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1)

Who'll Win It: Philadelphia (12-5), with Dallas finishing 10-6-1

Philly is struggling enough—and Dallas is charging enough—to make this interesting. Too bad the Cowboys fell short against the Eagles in Week 1, while that tie with Green Bay could be costly too. 

The gap is too large for the Cowboys to complete the comeback against a battle-tested and resilient defending Super Bowl champion, even with the tiebreaker still in Dallas' back pocket via divisional record. 

The Eagles should beat the Chargers and Raiders the next two weekends to essentially put this away. 

The significantly more trustworthy team wins out, giving the NFC East its first repeat champion since 2004. 

NFC North

AP Photo/Rick Osentoski

Jordan Love

The Leader: Chicago Bears (9-3)

The Challenger(s): Green Bay Packers (8-3-1), Detroit Lions (7-5)

Who'll Win It: Green Bay (11-5-1), with Detroit and Chicago both finishing 11-6

The Bears are a great story, but their remaining schedule is just a nightmare.

There's a good chance they relinquish the division lead to the surging Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday, and even if they remain in the mix it's hard to see such a novice team hanging on against the Packers (again), 49ers and Lions in Weeks 16, 17 and 18, respectively. 

The Lions, meanwhile, haven't won consecutive games since Weeks 4 and 5, and their only remaining game against a team with a losing record is a potential trap in Minnesota. 

Detroit has the talent to make a push, but the deficit is too large considering its recent play and upcoming schedule.

NFC South

AP Photo/Peter Joneleit

Baker Mayfield

The Leader: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)

The Challenger(s): Carolina Panthers (7-6), Atlanta Falcons (4-8)

Who'll Win It: Tampa Bay (11-6), with Carolina finishing 8-9 and Atlanta finishing 6-11

Nobody here is good, but the Bucs win out in terms of the current loss column as well as overall talent and experience.

They should be able to finally put the Panthers away with two head-to-head matchups in the final three weeks of the season, and outside of that, they face three losing teams in New Orleans, Atlanta and Miami. They'll be fine. 

Each of Carolina's last six wins has come by one score (five of them by a field goal), but there's a good chance a team that is realistically mediocre on both sides of the ball finally hits a wall with Tampa Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay in Weeks 16, 17 and 18, respectively. 

The Falcons are included because the delta to Tampa Bay isn't completely insurmountable, and we've included other non-division leaders with equal or larger deficits, but Atlanta is realistically toast.

This team hasn't won back-to-back games all season, and it still has to deal with the Bucs as well as the Seahawks and Rams. 

NFC West

AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman

Matthew Stafford

The Leader: Los Angeles Rams (9-3) 

The Challenger(s): Seattle Seahawks (9-3), San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

Who'll Win It: Los Angeles (13-4), with Seattle finishing 13-4 and San Francisco finishing 12-5

The key difference? The Seahawks just might split the season series with the Rams by beating them at home in Week 16, but they also have to play in San Francisco in Week 18.

I get the feeling that'll mean a playoff spot to the feisty 49ers, who would hand the Seahawks their third divisional loss (and the likely tiebreak to the Rams). 

The Rams get to play Arizona twice more, as well as Atlanta and the struggling Lions. The Seahawks have to travel to Carolina and San Francisco to play teams likely fighting for their lives, and the Colts could have the same mentality in Seattle in Week 15. 

The way the schedule lies, I can see the Seahawks being in the driver's seat with two weeks to go and then blowing it on the road in Weeks 17 and 18. 

That said, this is a genuine three-way toss-up. The 49ers have more room to make up but are in superb tiebreaker shape with a 4-1 divisional record, and they have just one road game remaining. 

It's the wild West.