Odds of Each Top Cole Hamels Suitor Pulling off Blockbuster Trade

Over the weekend, Cole Hamels authored a no-hitter against the Chicago Cubs, and in the process, penned an emphatic note to the rest of baseball: "Someone—anyone—please, come and get me!"

With the 2015 MLB trade deadline looming on July 31, it's difficult to think of how Hamels could have made a more brilliant, last-ditch sales pitch to prospective trade suitors.

According to Jayson Stark of ESPN, the top possible landing spots for the lefty ace are the Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and the Cubs. As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports notes, the New York Yankees are also in the mix.

Before running down the odds of each of those suitors pulling off a blockbuster swap, it's worth remembering that there's still a chance that Hamels could stay put in Philly.

"This isn't do-or-die for us," General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. explained via Stark. "In the end, it's about, 'What is the return?' and, 'Is this the right return?' If it is, we'll move forward. And if it's not we won't."

The club's front-office situation is also a major factor in the equation. It wouldn't be the worst idea for the Phillies to hold off on trading Hamels until the end of the season when new president Andy MacPhail is officially installed.

Then again, that might be too long to wait. This winter, the free-agent market will be flooded with high-end arms like Jordan Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto and David Price. By that point, Hamels offseason value could be way down, because acquiring him would cost teams prospects and money. And Hamels is owed a ton of money:

• 2015: Balance of his $23.5 million
• 2016: $23.5 million
• 2017: $23.5 million
• 2018: $23.5 million
• 2019: $20 million team option ($6 million buyout)

With those considerations in mind, let's set the odds of Hamels staying put at 3-2. Now, it's time to figure out which of the clubs listed above has the best chance of reeling the starter in, if he does end up on the move.

New York Yankees

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

Why a Hamels Blockbuster Makes Sense

Make no mistake about it—the Yankees have the pieces to make this happen.

Per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the American League East leaders have reached out to the Phillies about the availability of Hamels. As Rosenthal adds, Philadelphia has in turn expressed an interest in prospect Aaron Judge.

The outfielder has mashed 14 home runs in 2015, but as Rosenthal points out, he's one of three farm hands who Yankees executive Brian Cashman has no intention of parting with. The other players on that list are starter Luis Severino and first baseman Greg Bird.

Aside from the big three, the Yankees also have a slew of slightly less shiny prospects, including second baseman Rob Refsnyder, catcher Gary Sanchez and infielder Tyler Wade. Players from that second tier could certainle be secondary chips in a deal for Hamels.

But unless Cashman changes course on his unwillingness to part ways with one of Judge, Severino or Bird, the chances are slim that Hamels will be pitching in the Bronx anytime soon.

The Odds: 19-1

Boston Red Sox

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Why a Hamels Blockbuster Makes Sense

Just why exactly would a last-place team be buying as the trade deadline approaches?

For the Red Sox, swooping in for Hamels wouldn't be about the present. It would be about the future.

One of the fundamental issues surrounding the club this season has been that the starting rotation has been a trainwreck. In 2015, Red Sox's starters have racked up the the third-worst ERA in the bigs and the worst mark in the AL.

Importing Hamels would immediately help the underwhelming Red Sox in that department. According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Boston was one of the teams that dispatched a scout to watch one of Hamels' recent starts.

For GM Ben Cherington, the most compelling argument against going all in on Hamels is that he has the luxury of waiting around for the winter free-agent market. Instead of parting with prospects and then paying Hamels his remaining salary, the shrewd move for Cherington would be to back up the Brinks trunk for a free-agent ace in the winter.

The Odds: 9-1

Texas Rangers

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Why a Hamels Blockbuster Makes Sense

Don't ask Jon Daniels, the GM of the Rangers, whether his team will be making a move for a game-changer like Hamels.

"We'll make a trade only if it helps us," Daniels said, via T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. "I am not going to handicap it."

As for the Hamels front, the Rangers are in the same boat as the Red Sox. The third-place club, which has toppled out of the playoff chase, doesn't need the 31-year-old for this season, but for 2016 and beyond.

"Most of the guys we talked about are multi-year fits," Daniels said. "From an acquisition standpoint, guys that fit now and fit into our offseason plan."

With Yu Darvish set to return from Tommy John surgery next spring, bringing on Hamels would give the AL West squad the makings of a dynamic 1-2 punch. Of course, as is the case with the Red Sox, the Rangers could also wait for free agency to find that front-line arm.

The Odds: 9-1

Chicago Cubs

DAVID BANKS/Associated Press

Why a Hamels Blockbuster Makes Sense

Jon Lester has no interest in playing GM, as the Cubs' lefty ace explained via Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.

"

We're pretty darn good right now. Obviously having an addition would be a shot in the arm as far as taking the pressure off the other four guys, but I don't think we can worry about that right now. … If [President of Baseball Operations] Theo [Epstein] and those guys decide that's what we need, then great. If they decide we're going to stand pat, then great. I've always been a big believer you stay in your lane as best as you can.

"

For the Cubs, prying Hamels away from the NL East would make sense for a couple of reasons.

First, it would help the club in the playoff chase in 2015. With the St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates battling for the division crown, a trip to the Wild-Card Game looks like a best-case scenario for Chicago.

But if the team managed to reach that clash and then advance, a three-headed monster of Lester, Hamels and Jake Arrieta would make for one potent trio of October arms.

The second consideration is that the organization has all sorts of depth as far as position players are concerned, but the outlook of the rotation is far more dicey. With Hamels potentially under club control through 2019, his addition would go a long way in stabilizing the situation.

The Odds: 11-2

Los Angeles Dodgers

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

Why a Hamels Blockbuster Makes Sense

If there's a front-runner in the Hamels derby, the Dodgers are that team. According to Stark, Los Angeles is the "runaway pick" when it comes to predicting where Hamels will be pitching next.

If the left-hander ends up at Chavez Ravine, the rest of the Senior Circuit will be in some serious trouble. In such a scenario, the Dodgers would suddenly be trotting out a rotation headlined by Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and the former Phillie.

As Jim Bowden of ESPN notes via Twitter, Los Angeles is "determined" to snag an ace before the end of the month, and Hamels is on the list of trade targets. One advantage in acquiring Hamels is that he's no rental.

Hamels' contract situation should be an important factor for the Dodgers. Greinke can opt out of his deal this winter. If the club had a 2016 rotation anchored by Kershaw and Hamels, rather than just Kershaw, the Dodgers would have more leverage in the Greinke contract discussion, as his potential departure wouldn't be such a looming disaster.

The Odds: 4-1

Note: All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.