NFL MVP Is Drake Maye's Award To Lose Now, But There Is No Margin For Error

Drake Maye was brilliant yet again in Week 13, leading his New England Patriots past the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.

The 33-15 win—the team's 10th consecutive victory—not only kept New England ahead in the race for the AFC's No. 1 seed, but it also cemented the quarterback's status as the favorite for the 2025 NFL MVP award.

Maye torched Big Blue's defense for 282 yards and a pair of touchdowns and remained the league's most accurate QB after completing 24 of his 31 passing attempts. The performance raised his completion rate to an eye-popping 71.5 percent—making him the only qualifying signal-caller to complete more than 70 percent of their throws in 2025.

Completion percentage isn't the only stat Maye is pacing the NFL in. Heading into Week 14, he leads the league in passing yardage (3,412) and quarterback rating (111.9). His 8.8 yards per passing attempt trail only Sam Darnold (9.0), and his 23 touchdown passes rank fourth.

AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

The 2024 No. 3 overall pick has managed these feats despite suffering 40 sacks on the season, a concerning number that only Cam Ward and Geno Smith are topping.

Maye has been poised in the pocket and making the right decision with pressure bearing down, evidenced by the meager six interceptions he's thrown across 13 starts. He's been elusive on the move as well, picking up a respectable 319 yards and two scores on 81 totes this season.

While the North Carolina product has the inside track towards claiming an MVP award, he's facing some stiff competition from a grizzled veteran who may be in the midst of his final NFL season.

Matt Stafford has been having an incredible campaign, one that he initially seemed unsure about even suiting up for while mulling retirement this past offseason.

The Los Angeles Rams are certainly glad he decided to return after agreeing to new contract, one the 37-year-old has more than delivered on by staying healthy and playing some of his best football yet.

AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman

After setting a league record with 28 consecutive touchdown passes without an interception, leading the field in several major statistical categories and guiding the Rams to the top of the NFC standings, Stafford was the favorite to cap off his storied career with an MVP award heading into Week 13.

An uncharacteristically poor performance from the two-time Pro Bowler that resulted in a stunning defeat to the underdog Carolina Panthers flipped the script, though, and showed just how tight the margins for error are when it comes to earning the NFL's highest individual honor.

A series of mistakes—which included an extremely costly pick-six in the first half and a strip sack that ended any hope of the usually clutch QB engineering his 40th career fourth-quarter comeback—not only resulted in Stafford's interception count doubling in the span of a single contest, but the defeat also dropped L.A. behind the Chicago Bears in the quest to earn a first-round bye in the playoffs.

After Week 13's shocking results were taken into account, Maye reopened betting as the odds-on favorite at -135 per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Winslow Townson/AP Images for Panini

Stafford may be down but he's certainly not out, remaining right in the thick of what is now a two-man race with +125 odds.

The pressure is on Maye to avoid the type of pitfall that may have just derailed Stafford's MVP run. The Patriots have a fortunately-timed bye to give the quarterback and his teammates a chance to rest up before the final stretch, a break that the quarterback says is sorely needed.

"Bye week is huge," he said. "Felt like a long time coming, but we're here, and we have some important football after the bye week. We're looking forward to getting healthy, get some guys back, and make a push."

New England's post-bye schedule includes a slew of familiar rivals, beginning with a Week 15 rematch against the Buffalo Bills.

While the Pats stated their case to regain their status as the AFC East's top dog by securing an early-October victory over the Bills, it also marked the lone contest that Maye failed to record a touchdown in this year.

He was solid in the contest—connecting on 23-of-30 passes for 273 yards while avoiding turnovers—but he'll need to be even better against the league's top passing defense if he's to solidify his resume.

Things won't get easier for Maye over the final three games either, with New England set to take on the Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins in consecutive weeks to close out the campaign.

The Ravens are New England's lone upcoming foe with a pass defense that currently rates outside the top half of the league. Baltimore has improved in that area recently after a putrid start to the 2025 season too, making each game a potential minefield that Maye must avoid if he wants to become the first player since Lamar Jackson to win the MVP award in just his second professional season.

It will take Maye playing close to perfect football during this span for him to clearly outclass a proven star like Stafford, whose Rams take on the lowly Arizona Cardinals and reeling Atlanta Falcons in three of their final five games.

AP Photo/Steven Senne

Voters may give the MVP edge to Stafford should the neck-and-neck race finish as tight as it currently stands—providing the venerable Super Bowl LVI winner with a crowning career capstone achievement, one of the few honors that has eluded the Rams QB over his first 16 seasons in the league.

Considering equally strong arguments can be made for both signal-callers at this juncture, it's imperative Maye shows out over the final month of the season and leaves no doubt he's the better player if he's going to be named the 2025 NFL MVP.