Re-Grading the Top NHL Free-Agent Signings from the 2025 Offseason

When teams sign free agents to long-term contracts, they do so expecting success over several years. They don't expect all their dreams to come true in year one. Let alone in December of year one.

Roughly a third of the way into the 2025-26 NHL season, we can begin to see how these players may fit. Teams handed out a lot of money last July. Some of those contracts look just as good in practice as they did in theory. Other contracts... well, let's just say some teams wish they could hit the reset button.

Let's take an early look at how some of the most notable unrestricted free agents from last summer are performing so far this season.

Brock Nelson, Colorado Avalanche

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The Colorado Avalanche's decision to go for broke at the 2025 trade deadline didn't work out. GM Chris McFarland moved significant pieces to the New York Islanders in return for pending UFA Brock Nelson (among other moves), only to bow out against Dallas in round one.

It was not all for nothing, though. Colorado re-signed Nelson to a three-year, $ 7.5 million-per-year contract. The idea behind acquiring and retaining Nelson was simple. The Avs were a strong team, but with a gaping absence at second-line center. Nelson, a consistent 35-goal scorer, could do the job.

Nelson, aged 34, has not maintained that level of scoring prominence. With nine goals and nine assists in 27 games, the American is on pace for 27 goals and 55 points. Definitely up to standard for a second-line center, but not the high-end production reflective of Nelson's price point and recent standards.

Here's where that analysis falls short. Nelson, a prolific shooter and power-play producer with the Islanders, is sixth among the Avs in PP ice time. At even strength, Nelson is driving offense as well as ever. He ranks 39th in the NHL by five-on-five goals-per-60 and 102nd by points-per-60. That's in line with the expectations for him to play like an elite second-line center.

The Avs, of course, are currently the best team in the NHL by a wide margin. Nelson, a perfect complement to play-driving wingers like Valeri Nichushkin and Ross Colton, has won his 5-on-5 minutes by a 23-15 score. A $7.5 million cap hit is well worth it through 2028. Especially given that Colorado should be a bona fide Stanley Cup contender for all three seasons.

Grade: A

Brian Dumoulin and Cody Ceci, Los Angeles Kings

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How does a team finally get past the Edmonton Oilers' offensive firepower in round one of the NHL playoffs? Losing Vladislav Gavrikov as a free agent doesn't help the cause. GM Ken Holland had the critical summer job of remaking the Los Angeles Kings' defense to elevate the team from merely good to one capable of making a deep playoff run.

The proposed solutions? Brian Dumoulin and Cody Ceci. There were several reasons to be skeptical that they could improve the team as a whole. Dumoulin, once able to shut down top players on those Pittsburgh Stanley Cup teams, is now 34 and better suited to a sixth defenseman role. Ceci has always been a fringe third-pairing defenseman that various NHL coaches have overutilized.

The two veterans have been atrocious in Los Angeles. Particularly when deployed together. In nearly 170 minutes of icetime together, Dumoulin and Ceci have been outscored 10-2. They've since been separated, though the results aren't much better. They're arguably the two most liable players on the roster right now. Black holes offensively and capable only of depth shutdown minutes.

Dumoulin has a cap hit of $4M while Ceci sits at $4.5M. The worst part? They're signed for two and three more seasons, respectively. They'll likely only get worse with age. These looked like awful contracts before the ink even dried. Nothing has changed 26 games into their tenures with the LA Kings.

Grade: D-

Vladislav Gavrikov, New York Rangers

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Before the season, I argued that the hysteria surrounding Adam Fox was unjustified and that he was still an elite defenseman; he just needed better support around him.

Enter Vladislav Gavrikov. The Rangers signed the left defenseman from Los Angeles on July 1st on a seven-year, $49 million contract.

The theoretical fit has proven to be perfect in practice. The Russian is a perfect complement to Fox. He wins pucks in the D zone and then sends it over to Fox for better transport. His active stick and well-timed pinches keep plays alive for the Rangers, allowing Fox more time to operate in advantageous possessions. With his speed and range, Gavrikov also extinguishes the flames in the rare moments where Fox is overzealous, and the Rangers fall prone to a transition.

Gavrikov has even added an offensive element under head coach Mike Sullivan. He's shown a knack for timing his movements lower in the zone. His six goals tie a career-high through just 29 games this season.

Together, Fox and Gavrikov are playing tough minutes against other teams' best players, yet they have for 59.1% of the expected goal share at 5v5. It's arguably the best defensive pairing in the NHL. In today's NHL economy, $7M annually for a No. 2 defenseman is perfectly reasonable, especially when his specific style brings out the best in his Norris Trophy-winning partner.

The only issue is that the Rangers are flooded with problems elsewhere. They are an old team with little immediate hope of improvement. Gavrikov turned 30 in November. If they don't build out a contending team in the next year or two, Gavrikov's successes might be for nothing.

Grade: A-

Ivan Provorov, Columbus Blue Jackets

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The Columbus Blue Jackets probably knew they were, objectively, overpaying Ivan Provorov when they signed him to a seven-year deal worth $8.5 million annually. The team was (and still is) strapped with cap space, and not many players are lining up to sign with a small-market team with a limited history of success. You don't win any awards for keeping cap space open. Sometimes you have to accept your place in the market and spend above market value in order to get better as a hockey team.

With all that in mind, the Provorov contract was, and remains, a tough sell. This is not a great player whom the team overpaid by a million or so to retain. In his two prior years in Columbus, Provorov played more like a second-pairing offensive defenseman. A $4.5-$5 million defenseman by analytical value, MAYBE a $6 million player for Columbus given their market limitations.

The book on Provorov has always been that he looks like a great hockey player more than he's actually produced like one. He's an electric skater and, in his best moments with the puck, he looks like a top offensive defenseman. But his defense is inconsistent, and various coaches have tried and failed to turn his athleticism and strength into credible defense.

This season, Provorov has yet to even really show his offensive upside; he has just nine points through 27 games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets are giving up tons of offense in his minutes.

If there's one saving grace, it's that, by elevating Provorov into a role well above his means, the Blue Jackets have lessened the load for a thriving second defensive pairing that includes rookie Danton Mateychuk, who looks great.

Grade: C-

Trent Frederic, Edmonton Oilers

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This list is geared towards difference-makers being paid like top players. Trent Frederic, a career bottom-six forward, bucks the trend for two reasons.

1. The Oilers unconventionally handed him a five-year contract at $3.85 million annually
2. Given Edmonton's dominant core, the depth is what will make-or-break them

For an old-school hockey brain, Frederic repeatedly fills the reward pathways. He plays a hard-nosed game. He pressures puck carriers and throws a lot of hits. He gets to the front of the net and fights for ugly goals.

Of course, a big problem in Edmonton over the last decade has been relying too much on aesthetic appeal rather than a more cerebral assessment of output. Granted, Frederic had a couple of seasons in which he flirted with 20 goals, but that was a trickle-down effect of playing on elite Bruins teams plus some shooting luck. He came back down to earth last season, including in 23 games (22 of them in the playoffs for Edmonton).

Despite that, GM Stan Bowman decided to pay Frederic like a middle-six forward who can move up the lineup when needed or otherwise dominate depth minutes. That's not what Edmonton is getting. The 27-year-old has just two points (both goals) through 28 games, and head coach Kris Knoblauch has demoted him to a fourth-line role. In recent games, Frederic failed to even hit 10 minutes of ice time.

Frederic is an appealing player, but he's most similar to someone like Barclay Goodrow was in Tampa Bay; the third-best player on a third line who does the yeoman work next to two heavy lifters. The Oilers are simultaneously paying him to be much more than that, yet also aren't even getting that much from him. Now, they're in danger of missing the playoffs and have little cap space with which to make changes.

Frederic is a better player than he's shown, but the Oilers probably wish they could annul the contract right now.

Grade: F

Brock Boeser, Vancouver Canucks

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Despite various moments over the last few years in which Brock Boeser's departure from Vancouver appeared inevitable, the Minnesota native had a late change of heart and re-signed with the Canucks right before 2025 unrestricted free agency. The goal-scoring winger is committed through 2032 at a $7.25 million cap hit.

Boeser has his limits as a player, but his strengths stand out. He's a very good in-zone offensive player with good instincts for getting open. His wrist shot is a major asset, but he can also dish the puck around the offensive zone.

Boeser isn't putting up career-high numbers this season, but he's playing in line with his contract. Boeser has nine goals in 25 games, which is roughly 30 goals over 82 games. His lines have generated offensive chances. Unfortunately, Vancouver is a mess, and its linemates have done it no favors. Boeser is purely an offensive winger who needs better two-way drivers alongside him to maximize his potential. Players like Jake deBrusk and David Kampf have not been able to keep up.

In general, Vancouver has been one of the worst offensive teams in the NHL, so Boeser is doing well while running uphill. Vancouver is headed towards some organizational makeover, but Boeser is playing like a first-line offensive winger, and players like him may never get below $8 million annually ever again. The 28-year-old should give the Canucks some good years at that price point.

Grade: B

Mitch Marner, Vegas Golden Knights

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Marner's detractors will not be convinced unless and until he fearlessly contributes to a deep playoff run in Vegas. It's only December, so there's nothing Marner can do about that just yet. It is worth remembering that playing strong regular-season hockey is half the battle. The Toronto Maple Leafs probably wish they had some players stepping up right now.

There will be time to deal with playoff narratives, but it's so far, so good for Marner in Vegas. The point production is quite where he wants it to be; 25 points in 26 games and only 5 goals, but that's still very good production. More importantly, his two-way play has been elite. Vegas is scoring at nearly a 2-to-1 margin at 5-on-5 with Marner on the ice.

He's created magic when paired with center Jack Eichel, but a crucial development for Vegas is that head coach Bruce Cassidy has been able to split the two up in order to balance the lineup. Marner has played some of his best hockey with both Tomas Hertl and Brett Howden as his centers.

By Goals Above Replacement, Marner ranks fifth among all NHL forwards so far this season. It shouldn't be long before he produces like a 100-point forward. The 28-year-old is worth more than his $12 million cap hit now and should be well worth it in the future. The fit in Vegas makes a lot of sense for Marner, both on and off the ice, and there is every reason to believe he should contribute to some memorable playoff runs in the coming years.

Grade: A

Sam Bennett, Florida Panthers

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In 2015, the Los Angeles Kings had the opportunity to use a compliance buyout on center Mike Richards and eliminate his cap hit from the books. Granted, off-ice issues derailed Richards' career, but his play was also nowhere near justifying his contract. GM Mike Lombardi picked emotion over logic. Richards was a heart-and-soul player and a key part of two Stanley Cups in LA. They decided to keep him. The Kings would come to regret that decision.

I wonder if the Florida Panthers are in for a similar experience with Sam Bennett. Nobody is doubting that he was a crucial part of the Panthers' identity in back-to-back Stanley Cup victories. He leaves it all out on the ice and makes life miserable for opponents physically, and he scored some key goals during both playoff runs.

Still, an $8 million cap hit over the next eight seasons for a 29-year-old center who has breached the 50-point mark just once in his career? And consider the circumstances under which he has thrived in Florida. Bennett has played behind Sasha Barkov, arguably the best two-way center in the NHL. He also played alongside two elite play-driving wingers in Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe. I'm not sure any other player in the NHL was better set up for success than Bennett.

An offseason surgery puts Tkachuk on the shelf at least through Christmas, while Barkov's preseason ACL injury shelves him for the entire season. Bennett is no longer riding in the draft of better horses. The Panthers need him to be The Guy.

The result? Bennett has just six goals and seven assists through 26 games. His defensive play has been only okay. The Panthers have the sixth-worst record in the NHL and are in grave danger of missing the playoffs.

On the other hand, 24-year-old center Anton Lundell is thriving; 20 points through 25 games while taking on the more difficult matchups. When Barkov returns next season, Lundell should probably be the team's second-line center. That leaves Bennett as a very good, but grossly overpaid, third-line center. And how much worse will that contract look as he plays into his 30s?

Bennett's legacy in Florida is already set in stone, but maybe they should have let this one end on a good note.

Grade: C-