Miami Dolphins +4 may surprise Atlanta Falcons Sunday

Betting Line: ATL Falcons -4
Over/Under: 44 points
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The two biggest turnarounds a year ago were the Miami Dolphins and the Atlanta Falcons. The Dolphins were 1-15 in 2007 and finished 11-5 in 2008 while winning the AFC East division crown. The Falcons on the other hand went just 4-12 in 2007 and also finished 11-5 in ’08. This figures to be a very good match-up with the strength of the Atlanta offense facing a very good Miami defense.

Make no mistake about it the Falcons are loaded on offense with Matt Ryan running the show. He should be more comfortable in his second year as he has great weapons around him. Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and Michael Jenkins are all very good receiving threats for Ryan to utilize. You also can’t forget that the real strength of this Atlanta offense is their ability to run the football with Michael Turner. However, Miami is a very stingy defense and I think they will keep them in this game.

The Miami defense finished 9th in the NFL in scoring defense giving up just over 19 points a game. Led by Jerry Porter and Jason Taylor, they should be able to at least keep Michael Turner from going off in this game. The defense looked great in pre-season and should be the backbone of this team. They have great leadership and I think they can keep the Atlanta skill players in check.

Atlanta on the other hand has an extremely young defense that could get exposed by the Miami rushing attack. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams should be able to find holes to run through against this Atlanta defense. Chad Pennington has made strides in his game as well and should be able to limit his mistakes and manage the game. I think Miami has the better defense by far and that should keep them in this game. They also have a great running game so the four points is enticing.

When you look at this game, you have two 11-5 teams going head-to-head so I expect a close game. I think Miami has a shot to pull the upset but I think they will at least keep the margin under 4 points. I like the points with Miami with the better defense and solid rushing attack. I also expect Chad Pennington to play well and find Ted Ginn Jr. downfield against a suspect Atlanta secondary. Atlanta has the better offense but Miami will be up to the challenge on D.